NFL Picks Week 3: Over-Under Lines and Safest Predictions Against the Spread

There have been few safe bets throughout this young NFL season, and that's not bound to change as we enter an interesting Week 3 slate. But a couple arise each week, and this weekend proves to be no different.

With two weeks of regular-season football in the books, it's never a grand idea to overanalyze the 120 minutes of football that only equates to the opening eighth of the season. But in that short span, we've already learned quite a bit about which teams are ready for the long season and which clubs need to turn things around fast.

Another packed slate of 16 games is in the works, with Thursday night's debacle that featured the Atlanta Falcons beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 as a distasteful appetizer for what should otherwise be an unpredictably wild week.

The Las Vegas lines are typically on-point for a reason, and Week 3 looks to be no different, but a couple of matches jump off the page as fantastic to go against. Let's take a look at picks for every game and highlight two you have to go against.

Matchup (Spread)	Time (ET)	Over/Under	Prediction
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)	1 p.m.	42.5	CIN 24-16
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)	1 p.m.	45.5	SD 20-13
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (Even)	1 p.m.	44	DAL 24-17
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	1 p.m.	50	PHI 30-14
Houston Texans (-1) at New York Giants	1 p.m	41.5	NYG 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-11)	1 p.m.	49	NO 31-20
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Even)	1 p.m.	41	BAL 27-24 OT
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	1 p.m.	52	GB 28-21
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	1 p.m.	45	IND 31-17
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-15)	1 p.m.	47	NE 38-13
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals	4:05 p.m.	42	SF 23-17
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)	4:25 p.m.	48.5	SEA 30-27
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)	4:25 p.m.	42.5	KC 17-14
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3)	8:30 p.m.	42	CAR 34-20
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)	8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	45.5	NYJ 28-24

Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, updated as of September 19.

Safest Picks Against the Spread

San Diego Chargers over Buffalo Bills (-1)

DENIS POROY/Associated Press

The Chargers face a tough road matchup that they probably didn't expect to be quite as tough before the season, traveling to face the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.

EJ Manuel has led Buffalo to two surprising victories to start 2014, upsetting the Chicago Bears in Week 1 before convincingly beating AFC East opposition Miami 29-10 in Week 2. The only unit better than the Bills' run offense (seventh) is their run defense (fifth), holding opponents to 83 yards on the ground.

But there are holes in the secondary, as told by dwelling in the bottom five of the league in pass defense. And Philip Rivers is ready to take advantage of that weakness.

Rivers and Antonio Gates had their way with Seattle's vaunted Legion of Boom secondary, gashing them for 284 yards and three touchdowns in the Chargers' 30-21 home win over the Super Bowl champions. Against a Bills secondary that is still finding its way, expect more of the same.

Of course, missing Ryan Mathews for the game and the next month isn't ideal. But Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead seem more than capable of shouldering the load with the way Rivers is dominating secondaries. 

What's more is that the Chargers defense has looked exceptional at times in 2014. Other than a few quick Seattle touchdown drives and the Cardinals' late success in Week 1, the unit has been practically impenetrable.

“You look at them on paper, and they have one of the best defenses in the NFL," Manuel said of the Chargers defense, per ESPN.com's Eric D. Williams. "They have some great players, tons of experience all across the board. I know Eric Weddle is one of the most savvy safeties in the league."

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller is so confident of the Chargers' victory, that he's striking a bet with his Twitter followers:

I don't foresee Miller having to edit his Twitter profile anytime over the next week. Rivers is just clicking too much with his receivers, and combined with a peaking defense, the Chargers will be able to handle the Bills' strong rushing attack.

The line is getting pushed more and more in the Chargers' favor, so take advantage while they're still underdogs.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Bills 13

Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Through one week of the season, the NFC North looked to be in the Detroit Lions' immediate control after Minnesota was the only team joining them with Week 1 victories. After two weeks, the Green Bay Packers have reminded the division that they're still around.

Green Bay's opening five quarters of the season were about as nightmarish as you could possibly imagine. After a resounding defeat on the road to the Seahawks to open the season, the Jets jumped out to a 21-3 lead at Lambeau Field.

But the Packers battled back, pulling out the 31-24 win off a masterful comeback performance from Aaron Rodgers and a Green Bay passing attack that we finally saw click like it's capable of in 2014. Jordy Nelson was incredibly reliable, Randall Cobb made big plays and the complementary pieces were making their impact.

As for the Lions, they're just licking their wounds after a 24-7 drubbing at the hands of the Carolina Panthers. They lost the turnover battle 3-0, never looking quite as formidable up front as they did in Week 1 against the New York Giants.

And heading into Week 3, their secondary is looking troubled to say the least as Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com noted:

Having serious problems in the secondary is far from ideal when a quarterback of Rodgers' caliber, boasting a receiving corps of this degree, is coming to town. With a deep pool of wideouts to target, the Packers will have their way in the passing game to negate the Lions' menacing front four. 

The Packers have maddeningly walked the line of mediocrity so far this season, but that all changes in Week 3 with a big-time statement against a burly NFC foe.

Prediction: Packers 28, Lions 21

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