Week 3 NFL Picks: Examining the Trends and Line Movements

Although you can't get a complete read on any team after two games, fans around the league should be starting to get a better overall grasp on the season outlook. By the end of the first month, each team's direction will likely be pretty clear, barring a major turnaround.

One way you can tell the situation is beginning to stabilize is the lack of huge line movements. Not only does it mean some questions are being answered, but it also means the oddsmakers are figuring out which teams the public likes and which teams are being undervalued.

With that in mind, let's look at the remaining Week 3 slate after the Atlanta Falcons' thrashing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. After checking out the lines, we'll examine some of the trends that have developed this week.

Week 3 Odds and Picks

Date	Road	Home	Open	Current	Pick
Sept. 21	Chargers	Bills	Even	BUF -2.5	SD
Sept. 21	Cowboys	Rams	DAL -1.5	DAL -1	DAL
Sept. 21	Redskins	Eagles	PHI -7	PHI -6.5	PHI
Sept. 21	Texans	Giants	HOU -2.5	HOU -2	HOU
Sept. 21	Vikings	Saints	NO -9.5	NO -10.5	MIN
Sept. 21	Titans	Bengals	CIN -7	CIN -7	CIN
Sept. 21	Ravens	Browns	Even	BAL -2	BAL
Sept. 21	Packers	Lions	DET -2	DET -2	GB
Sept. 21	Colts	Jaguars	IND -7	IND -7	IND
Sept. 21	Raiders	Patriots	NE -14.5	NE -14.5	OAK
Sept. 21	49ers	Cardinals	SF -2	SF -3	SF
Sept. 21	Broncos	Seahawks	SEA -3.5	SEA -5	SEA
Sept. 21	Chiefs	Dolphins	MIA -3.5	MIA -4	KC
Sept. 21	Steelers	Panthers	CAR -3.5	CAR -3	CAR
Sept. 22	Bears	Jets	NYJ -1.5	NYJ -2.5	CHI

Analyzing Trends/Line Movements

San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills (2.5-point change)

In what opened as an even game, the Bills are now nearly field-goal favorites. Every season, a couple of teams come from off the radar to contend for a playoff spot. It appears Buffalo is starting to garner some of that hype after wins over the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins.

Whether that hype is warranted is another question. The Bills have done a nice job of keeping the pressure off EJ Manuel by running the ball well and playing solid defense. They will probably need him to make more key plays this week against a high-scoring Chargers offense.

So it doesn't come as a big surprise that FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings make San Diego the slight favorite Sunday:

The other arguments for Buffalo revolve around the fact that the Chargers have to travel across the country for an early kickoff. It also helps that the fanbase is fired up thanks to the strong play, the good news about Jim Kelly's health and the Pegula family winning the bid for the team to keep it in Buffalo.

Alas, going up against a team that put up 30 points in a victory over the reigning champion Seattle Seahawks is the Bills' toughest challenge to date. It comes back to Manuel, who hasn't proved he can be counted on if forced into a pass-first shootout. That makes San Diego with the points the safer pick.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (2-point change)

The movement here is likely due to each team's performance against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. In Week 1, the Browns gave up 30 points in a three-point loss. Last week, the Ravens held them to six points in a 20-point triumph.

Yes, Cleveland was forced to play the Steelers on the road, but that's not enough to make up for the 23-point swing in results. The fact that the Ravens are only a few seasons removed from a title while the Browns are tied for the second-longest playoff drought (11 years) probably plays a role too.

The Browns defense is the key. It ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed through two weeks, a huge disappointment after bringing in defensive-minded Mike Pettine as head coach. The unit must get pressure on Joe Flacco early and often.

For the Ravens, the duo of Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett has been a pleasant surprise. Their success should continue against a defense giving up 150 yards per game on the ground. Baltimore has rightfully become the favorite and should cover by a narrow margin.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (1.5-point change)

If this were a normal regular-season game, the line likely would have remained steady. The Seahawks by about a field goal at home against the Broncos make sense. But of course, the 43-8 Super Bowl drubbing is still fresh in every football fan's memory.

That's why this game is so important for Denver. It needs to prove to everybody inside and outside the locker room that the title game was one bad outing and nothing more. Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com passed along comments from Peyton Manning, who said keeping it simple is crucial:

"

Yeah, I think naturally you're motivated anytime you play a team that beat you last year. But being motivated, or being mad doesn't mean anything if you don't go out there and execute and do your job … so I still think you have to try to simplify it in some ways and try to find a way to protect the ball, score some touchdowns in the red zone and stay out of a lot of third-and-longs. I think if you don't do those things, it's tough to be a good football team.

"

On the flip side, the Seahawks are 1-1 and don't want to fall below .500 in what could very well be the league's toughest division. The good news for Seattle is Russell Wilson should have plenty of passing lanes against a Broncos pass defense that's struggled mightily so far.

Add that to a Seahawks defense that takes away the short passing game Manning loves, and it's just a bad matchup for Denver. It would be a shock to see another blowout, but the favorites winning by 7-10 points seems like a fair projection.