Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road to visit the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South matchup on Thursday Night Football after dropping their first two games of the 2014 NFL season at home both straight-up and against the spread.

The Bucs were favored in each of those games and have now lost their last five games both SU and ATS dating back to last season.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 45. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 19.2-17.6 Buccaneers

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Sometimes a change of scenery can work wonders for a team, especially one facing a lot of pressure to win right now like Tampa Bay. The Bucs had higher expectations heading into the season with two winnable games at home to start the year.

However, despite losing and failing to cover both of them, they head to Atlanta knowing they can beat this team.

Last year, Tampa defeated the Falcons 41-28 for the team’s second straight win following an 0-8 start with running back Bobby Rainey breaking loose for 163 rushing yards.

Rainey is coming off another strong performance in a 19-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams last week with 144 yards on 22 carries while filling in for the injured Doug Martin. The Bucs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings at the Georgia Dome.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons will be happy to be back home following a disappointing Week 2 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Atlanta fell to the Bengals 24-10 as the offense stalled after earning a 37-34 overtime victory against the New Orleans Saints in the season opener.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan tossed three interceptions and totaled just 231 passing yards with one touchdown one week after throwing for a career-high 448 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints. Ryan is clearly a better QB at home and has led his team to a 4-0 ATS mark in their last four games there.

Smart Pick

Tampa Bay’s offense was hyped quite a bit during the offseason with the addition of QB Josh McCown plus first-round draft pick Mike Evans, who was Johnny Manziel’s go-to wide receiver last year at Texas A&M.

The Bucs are still trying to figure out how to run their offense effectively and efficiently, and until they prove they can do that, they are not worth betting on. Tampa head coach Lovie Smith had similar issues when he was with the Bears, which is one of the reasons he is no longer in the Windy City.

Bettors at least know what they will be getting with Atlanta at home. When healthy, the Falcons are a team worth betting on in the Dome.

Plus, the Bucs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against NFC South opponents. Bet on Atlanta here even though the computer almost picked the Bucs exactly last week and the computer is picking the upset.

Trends

• Falcons 2-5 ATS last seven games as home favorites
• The total has gone OVER in eight of Atlanta's last 11 games at home
• Buccaneers 2-7 ATS last nine road games vs. NFC South

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark, follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.