NFL Picks and Predictions Week 2: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Let me spare you the trouble now: Yes, I was awful with my Week 1 picks.

But as the Captain of #TeamDegenerate (of which you, dear reader, are most assuredly a member), I must remind you of the following two things:

1.) I am not a professional gambler. Like you, I'm just a dude who likes to wager his hard-earned money on NFL games.

2.) I offered five best bets against the spread last week and went 3-2 on those selections. And to take it a step further, I went 5-4-1 with my Surefire Locks of the Week, which included over/under bets. Plus, I gave you the Pittsburgh Steelers as a survivor pick. So there.

But for the gambler, all that matters is what lies ahead. 

So, #TeamDegenerate members, we turn the page to Week 2.

When I initially perused this upcoming slate of games, I stared at the screen with the same blank expression surely emblazoned on NFL commissioner Roger Goodell's face when he first found out about TMZ's leak of the Ray Rice tape. In talking to fellow #TeamDegenerate charter members, I found that they felt the same way.

But as the week dragged on, I started to become more confident. I started to see things more clearly. I now believe I have a handle on the proceedings.

Here is the Ultimate Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 2, powered by OddsShark, complete with picks and predictions. 

Total Season ATS: 6-10-1 (including Pittsburgh this past Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 3-3 (including Pittsburgh this past Thursday night)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com. 

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!

Thursday Night Football: Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Final Score: Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 6 (Ravens cover -2.5)

This past August, I was lucky enough to be asked to participate in this year's Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, representing Bleacher Report and the fine folks at OddsShark (to keep tabs on the contest, click here).

In the contest, you pick five games against the spread each week for the chance to win a ton of cash. So given my status as the captain of #TeamDegenerate, I jumped at the opportunity.

And after nailing the Seattle Seahawks last Thursday night, I couldn't stop myself from taking this past Thursday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore.

And, of course, I wagered on the Steelers.

By the time Pittsburgh fumbled on its opening possession, I was cursing loud enough for my neighbors to be concerned that I'd lost my mind. I knew the game was over early.

I was right.

And thus, I'm currently 0-1 in Week 2. 

Thanks for nothing, Pittsburgh.

Miami at Buffalo

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Line: Miami at Buffalo (PK)

I need to be honest: I love when Vegas sets lines at a pick 'em. There's something immensely satisfying about just selecting the winner of a game.

When you gamble on a point spread, you find yourself rooting for the most insane series of events to transpire so you can win your bet. For example, consider my train of thought from this past Monday night's game between the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals:

OK, I have the Chargers getting three...and they're up 17-6. But the Cardinals are driving, and they're about to punch it in. If they score, they're going to go for two. I need for them to miss the two-point conversion so the Chargers are up five, and then if the Cardinals score again, I need them to miss the two-point conversion AGAIN. If they get the two-point conversion, we're either going to overtime with a score or we'll lose by four points with a touchdown. Please, PLEASE miss the two-point conversion!

While there is an element of fun involved with that train of thought (hell, who am I kidding, it's absolutely awesome), it's scintillating to just pick a winner.

Both the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are coming off shocking Week 1 triumphs, as Miami came from behind to stun New England and Buffalo vanquished the Bears in Chicago.

The last time these two squads met in Buffalo (Week 16 of last season), the Bills sacked Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill seven times en route to a dominant victory. I don't expect that to happen again.

The Dolphins offensive line looked much improved in Week 1, and I firmly believe Tannehill is on his way to a breakout season.

As for Bills quarterback EJ Manuel...not so much.

Manuel played very well in Buffalo's upset of Chicago, but there's still time for him to show his true colors and melt down in a big spot. I expect it to happen in the team's home opener.

Bottom line: I trust Tannehill more than Manuel in a big spot.

But with that said, this one could go either way, and I wouldn't recommend you plop down your hard-earned money on it.

The Pick: Miami (PK)

Jacksonville at Washington

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Line: Jacksonville at Washington (-6)

I'm begging you: Please don't bet on this game.

If ever there were a blue-ribbon entry to the "Games Not To Gamble On" contest, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins in our nation's capital would be it.

Don't try and write in the comments that you have a lean on this game. Don't try and convince anyone that you know what's going to happen. You're just guessing, because no one could possibly have a clue.

To paraphrase Eminem: Will the real Jaguars and Redskins please stand up? 

Right now, we have no idea who these teams actually are, and that means any outcome is possible.

Would you be stunned if the Jaguars defense gave Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III fits and quarterback Chad Henne connected early and often with fantasy waiver-wire superstar Allen Hurns to give Jacksonville the advantage?

And would your socks be knocked off if Griffin actually put forth a decent game and the Redskins won at home against a team with inferior talent?

In a game between two bad football teams, take the points.

The Pick: Jacksonville (+6)

Dallas at Tennessee

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Line: Dallas at Tennessee (-3.5)

I just spent an entire slide espousing my belief that when two bad teams get together, betting on the game is not advisable.

But if you're a charter member of #TeamDegenerate and really want to lay down some of your hard-earned cash on a game featuring two bad teams, my advice is simple: Always take the points.

The Pick: Dallas (+3.5)

Arizona at NY Giants

Matt York/Associated Press

Line: Arizona at NY Giants (+2.5)

The line for this game scares the crap out of me.

You see, the 0-1 New York Giants—the hapless, pathetic, horrendous Giants—actually opened up as one-point favorites over the impressive 1-0 Arizona Cardinals.

Of course, the line was almost immediately pushed to the other side, and Arizona has settled at 2.5-point favorites, which is significantly more appropriate. The Giants being favored over the Cardinals would be like Jennifer Lopez being favored in an acting contest over Meryl Streep.

But the fact that the Giants were initially favored raises a follow-up question: Why? Why in the world would Vegas make such an obviously poor projection?

Answer: to get the members of #TeamDegenerate to plunk down their hard-earned cash on the Cardinals. There's no other reason for it.

Now, the vast majority of public money is on the Cardinals, which makes sense on the surface. But I want you to ask yourself the following question: Did the casinos in Vegas build themselves?

No. No, they didn't. Vegas know what it was doing. Even though logic and reason point to the Cardinals covering the spread, there's something very fishy about this game. I would recommend not betting it, as I have a sinking suspicion that the Giants will find a way to cover.

But if you held a gun to my head, I'd have to roll with the Birdgang. I just wouldn't wager my hard-earned money on it.

And you shouldn't either.

The Pick: Arizona (-2.5)

New England at Minnesota

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Line: New England at Minnesota (+6)

Ladies and gentlemen, you are not in the Twilight Zone.

If you look outside your window, pigs will not be flying. If you check the weather report in hell, the forecast won't be calling for snow.

And the New England Patriots will not start the 2014 NFL season by losing their first two games.

Especially not to their former backup signal-caller and current starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, Matt Cassel. 

Especially not to a Vikings team that will be without star running back Adrian Peterson (for more on his absence, check out this outstanding column from Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman).

No way, no how.

I understand that the Patriots looked dreadful in the second half of their Week 1 loss to the Dolphins. I know that their offensive line resembled an especially moldy piece of Swiss cheese. It’s true that their run defense made Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller look like Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton.

But still: They’re the Patriots. Bill Belichick is too good to allow his team to slip into an 0-2 hole, especially against a team quarterbacked by Cassel.

And if pigs do fly and hell does freeze over and the Patriots somehow lose to the Vikings, expect Belichick to stumble through Boston with a Ron Burgundy beard and carton of milk, muttering silently to himself in a near catatonic state.

Don’t overthink it. Play the Patriots with confidence.

The Pick: New England (-6) 

New Orleans at Cleveland

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Line: New Orleans at Cleveland (+6.5)

If you're a big enough NFL fan (and if you're reading this, you probably are), you surely have a number of friends that follow the league. And invariably, one of these friends will constantly spout off about the New Orleans Saints being a different team on the road than they are in the friendly confines of the Superdome.

What? The Saints are playing the Perkins School for the Blind? Where's the game? Oh, Perkins is hosting? Well, take Perkins! You know the Saints can't play on the road! And who are the Saints playing next week? What's that? They're making a visit to Appalachian State? Forget it! The Saints are horrible on the road!

This Sunday, when you meet up with your buddies, that same idiot is going to try and convince you to not take the Saints because they're on the road in Cleveland.

And when that happens, I want you to remind yourself of the following facts: The Saints are good and the Browns are bad. Drew Brees is good and Brian Hoyer is bad. The Saints are a Super Bowl contender and the Browns are not.

The truth is, it doesn't matter where this game is played. It could be in Louisiana, Ohio or the moon, and the Saints would still win and cover.

Don't let the clown repeating the line about the Saints on the road like a Chatty Cathy doll dissuade you from the truth.

Take New Orleans and thank me on Monday morning.

The Pick: New Orleans (-6.5)

Atlanta at Cincinnati

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Line: Atlanta at Cincinnati (-5)

Warning! Warning! Week 1 overreaction alert! Week 1 overreaction alert! Warning! Warning!

Last week, I picked the Saints to cover the spread in Atlanta, but I also wrote that I wouldn't be shocked if the Falcons won the game outright. And when Atlanta did win in dramatic fashion, I wasn't surprised in the least.

But that victory has now raised the public's confidence in the Falcons, so much so that they're only five-point underdogs on the road in Cincinnati against a vastly superior Bengals team.

While anyone with a functioning brain would take Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan over Bengals passer Andy Dalton, the rest of the roster isn't even up for debate. The Bengals are better, period, end of story, and the line should probably be around -7 in favor of the home team.

The only possible scenario that could be constructed in which the Falcons cover the spread or win the game is if Ryan goes off and carries the team on his back. And while that's not totally impossible, the fact that rookie left tackle Jake Matthews will miss the game is a crippling blow, especially considering Gabe "The Human Turnstile" Carimi will take his place manning Ryan's blind side.

Atlanta's defense isn't good. It isn't playing in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. Its starting left tackle is out, and it's facing a better team.

Don't listen to the doofus that loves the Falcons. Pay no mind to the schmuck who says that the Saints are better than the Bengals and the Falcons beat the Saints, so of course the Falcons will beat the Bengals!

It ain't happening. 

Play the Bengals with confidence.

The Pick: Cincinnati (-5)

Detroit at Carolina

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Line: Detroit at Carolina (-2.5)

This is the toughest game of the week to pick, bar none.

The fact of the matter is that we have no idea just how good either the Detroit Lions or the Carolina Panthers are just yet.

Sure, the Lions looked impressive in hammering the Giants in Week 1, but let's be honest, crushing the Giants isn't much of an accomplishment these days.

And yeah, the Panthers vanquished Tampa Bay on the road without quarterback Cam Newton, but there's a definite chance that the Buccaneers are worse than we thought they'd be.

If Newton suits up Sunday (he's listed as probable on the final injury report, meaning it's a virtual certainty he'll be in the lineup), the Panthers are a fabulous value at -2.5. This game should be -3 in favor of Carolina, and that half-point could turn out to be huge.

I feel confident in taking Carolina at -2.5. If it were 3.5, I'd take Detroit. But it's not, so I'm rolling with the Panthers.

The Pick: Carolina (-2.5)

St. Louis at Tampa Bay

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Line: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-6)

The winner of Week 2's award for "Game Between the Two Teams That Were the Least Impressive in Week 1" easily goes to the St. Louis Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Congratulations, guys!

Last Sunday, the Buccaneers lost at home to Panthers backup quarterback Derek Anderson, which would be like a blind dude coming over to your crib and beating you in Madden. 

Meanwhile, the dumpster fire known as the Rams raged into a full-on towering inferno, as they were embarrassed by the Vikings (who aren't exactly the Seahawks) in front of their home fans.

Making matters worse for the Rams is the fact that starting quarterback Shaun Hill didn't practice all week with a thigh/quad injury, meaning there's a good chance they'll start "Stone Cold" Austin Davis at quarterback Sunday.

What? I said the Rams could be starting "Stone Cold" Austin Davis on Sunday!

What? That's absolutely awful! What? It's dreadful! What? It's pathetic! 

What? Rams defensive end Chris Long is out eight to 10 weeks after undergoing ankle surgery!

What? Imagine how much more fun the Rams would be if they had jettisoned Sam Bradford and drafted Johnny Manziel this past offseason!

What? The Rams play in the NFC West and have little to no shot of competing for a wild-card berth in the NFC!

The fact is, the Rams aren't going into Tampa Bay and hanging with the Buccaneers, especially if Davis starts. Expect Tampa Bay's defense to get the job done.

And that's the bottom line, because Nick Kostos said so!

The Pick: Tampa Bay (-6)

Seattle at San Diego

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Line: Seattle at San Diego (+6)

At this point, wagering against the Seattle Seahawks would be like stepping in front of an oncoming truck.

The Seahawks have the look and feel of an absolute juggernaut. They absolutely waxed the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 and made it look easy. It should surprise no one if the defending Super Bowl champions repeated this coming February.

So, why am I so hot on the San Diego Chargers in this game? 

I think six points is too many. I like the Chargers at home to keep the game close. If this contest were in Seattle, I'd pick the Seahawks by 20. But it's in San Diego, so I think it'll be a tight, low-scoring game.

Before the game, I'm going to play the Chargers with confidence. And once kickoff approaches, I'm going to be absolutely terrified as I hear the Mack truck roaring in the distance.

God help me.

The Pick: San Diego (+6)

Houston at Oakland

J Patrick Schneider/Associated Press

Line: Houston at Oakland (+3)

I'm pretty sure that Einstein's theory of relativity states that whenever two bad football teams play, you're supposed to wager on the team that employs J.J. Watt.

And really, who the hell are we to argue with Einstein?

The Pick: Houston (-3)

NY Jets at Green Bay

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Line: NY Jets at Green Bay (-8.5)

I'm so confident in my pick for this game that it actually disturbs me.

This week, I actually said the following sentence out loud: "I could see [Jets quarterback] Geno Smith matching [Packers quarterback] Aaron Rodgers point for point on the scoreboard and keeping the Jets in the game."

As I said it, a cold sweat rushed over my body. My skin became clammy. I started looking around in all directions with the cool and calm of a paranoid schizophrenic. I was legitimately nervous that men in white coats were coming to wheel me off in a straitjacket and muzzle like my name was Hannibal Lecter. 

But you know what, damn it? I stand by my thought: The Jets will be able to score enough points on the atrocious Packers defense to keep the contest competitive.

Very quietly, Smith has begun to evolve into an NFL-caliber passer, and the Jets actually have some weapons on offense now (what a novel concept). Their running backs, the Chrises, Johnson and Ivory, could have a chance to surpass the Bobs from Office Space as the best combination ever of dudes with the same name.

Meanwhile, the Packers offensive line is a hot mess and will surely be given fits by Gang Green's disruptive front seven. And aren't you looking forward to the inevitable camera shot of defensive coordinator Dom Capers in the coaching box, after Green Bay gives up yet another third-down conversion, looking like Pat Riley when LeBron told him he was going back to Cleveland?

I have to do it. I have to pull the trigger. I have to stick to my guns.

I like the Jets to cover but the Packers to win the game. 

Of course, everything I've written here means Rodgers is probably going to throw for 450 yards and four touchdowns in a Green Bay rout.

The Pick: NY Jets (+8.5)

Kansas City at Denver

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Line: Kansas City at Denver (-12.5)

I'd like to thank the Denver Broncos and coach John Fox for my first bad beat of the NFL season—really appreciate it, guys!

To the uninitiated, a "bad beat" is when you seemingly have a bet won, only for it to be snatched from the jaws of victory in devastating fashion.

When the Broncos, 7.5-point favorites last Sunday night against the Colts, built a 24-point lead in the first half, I was sitting pretty. I was smug, I was smiling, I was counting my imaginary money and hot damn, I felt great about myself.

And then it happened. I should have known it would happen. 

As is his wont, Broncos coach John Fox called off the dogs in an effort to grind out the clock.

Because, you know, when you employ perhaps the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL in Peyton Manning, why would you try to continue scoring? 

So, with a comfortable second-half lead, Fox's inner monologue began with the seeming inevitability of another Real Housewives show hitting the airwaves:

OK, we've got the lead, and I've got the best quarterback in the world and an offense capable of putting seven on the board every time it gets the ball. But it's the second half, and I really want to get home and watch Murder She Wrote on DVR. I don't care that that Luck character keeps leading the Colts up and down the field, hand the pigskin to Monte Ball and let's go home, fellas! What do you mean the Colts know it's coming? What do you mean we're now up by only a touchdown? I don't care! Keep handing it to Ball, or you're fired!

Final score: Broncos 31, Colts 24. Indianapolis covered by a half-point.

Excuse me while I scream into my pillow.

OK, I feel better.

In the 2012 divisional playoff game against the Ravens, Fox ordered the Broncos into an offensive shell at the end of regulation, and Denver ended up losing to eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore.

In this past February's Super Bowl, Fox punted down 20 in the third quarter.

The point is: No matter how much better Denver is than an opposing team—and make no mistake about it, the Broncos are leagues better than the Chiefs—no lead is safe as long as Fox is patrolling the sideline.

So yeah, Broncos backer, you'll be sitting pretty and thinking it's a wrap when Denver races out to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. But once the second half starts and the Broncos offense turns into three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, you'll know how I felt last week.

Denver will win the game (and is my survivor pick for this week), but I don't trust it to cover the number.

The Pick: Kansas City (+12.5)

Sunday Night Football: Chicago at San Francisco

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Line: Chicago at San Francisco (-6.5)

Sunday night's contest between the Bears and 49ers in San Francisco is yet another tasty treat on the Week 1 overreaction platter.

It wasn't that long ago that everyone and their mother was trumpeting both the Bears and 49ers as surefire NFC playoff teams. But the Bears lost to an inferior opponent (sorry, Bills fans, it's the truth) in Week 1, sending their public goodwill plummeting.

The bottom line is that when these two teams are healthy, there's no reason for either to be favored by more than four points. The Bears are a good value pick here.

That is, of course, if star receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery play. Both are questionable (Marshall with an ankle, Jeffery with a hamstring), and it's unclear whether they'll see the field.

My advice is to wait until the last possible second to see if Marshall and Jeffery are active. If they are, take the Bears. If they aren't, take the 49ers.

The Pick: If Marshall and Jeffery are out, San Francisco (-6.5). If Marshall and Jeffery play, Chicago (+6.5).

Monday Night Football: Philadelphia at Indianapolis

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Line: Philadelphia at Indianapolis (-3)

I'm gonna bet the over! I'm gonna bet the over! I'm gonna bet the over, hey, hey, hey, hey!

Er, sorry about that. It's just that the prospect of rooting for points in a game with little to no defense fills me with the same type of excitement I felt on prom night.

If Paul Thomas Anderson directed a movie starring the 2014 Eagles and Colts, it'd be called There Will Be Points.

I absolutely cannot wait.

There's just no way that either defense will play well enough to make consistent stops. The only chance the Eagles have of stopping Andrew Luck and the Colts is if Luck hands the ball off 25 times to plodding running back Trent Richardson, who I'm pretty sure was bitten by a zombie two years ago and no one has realized it.

When it comes down to it, I trust that Luck won't let the Colts start 0-2. I'd rather wager my hard-earned money on Luck than Nick Foles, especially in Indianapolis.

And in case you didn't get the idea before, the over/under for the game is 54 points.

Free money, yo.

The Pick: Indianapolis (-3) 

Surefire Locks of the Week

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week ATS

1.) New England (-6 at Minnesota)

2.) New Orleans (-6.5 at Cleveland)

3.) San Diego (+6 vs. Seattle)

4.) NY Jets (+8.5 at Green Bay)

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1.) New Orleans at Cleveland (under 48.5 points)

2.) St. Louis at Tampa Bay (under 37 points)

3.) Seattle at San Diego (under 44 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1.) Philadelphia at Indianapolis (over 54 points)

2.) NY Jets at Green Bay (over 48.5 points)

3.) Dallas at Tennessee (over 49 points)

Survivor Pick of the Week

Denver over Kansas City