Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

In a game that features a couple interesting twists with regards to the quarterback position, the Houston Texans will travel to Oakland to face the Raiders as road favorites.

Houston’s defense will get the opportunity to go against Oakland rookie QB Derek Carr, whose brother David was selected by the Texans with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft.

Ironically, the younger Carr is replacing the injured Matt Schaub, who was Houston’s starter last year.

Point Spread

The Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 39.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 13.8-12.6 Oakland

Why the Texans Can Cover the Spread

No matter who lines up under center for the Raiders Sunday, Houston is going to be familiar with him. Schaub was projected to be Oakland’s starter before an elbow injury sidelined him, opening the door for Carr to become the first rookie QB to start for the team.

The Texans are not worried about either, though, after holding Washington’s Robert Griffin III without a touchdown in a 17-6 win last week.

Houston’s defense played outstanding and will be happy to chase down whomever the Raiders throw out there.

Why the Raiders Can Cover the Spread

Oakland somehow managed to cover the spread last week in a 19-14 road loss to the New York Jets, so why couldn’t the Raiders do the same thing at home?

The number may be a little smaller, but points should be at a premium, keeping the team within striking distance most of the game. Carr did not play poorly in his first NFL start, playing on the road against a good defense, throwing for 151 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

The big problem offensively for Oakland was the ground game, with running backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew combining for just 26 yards on 13 carries. And still, the Raiders covered against the Jets.

Smart Pick

The under is 7-1-1 in the last nine games the Raiders have been home underdogs, and there’s no reason to believe there will be offensive fireworks in this one based on last week’s games.

New Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ran a very conservative offense under first-year head coach Bill O’Brien, attempting just 22 passes with RB Arian Foster also carrying the ball 27 times. Oakland can be expected to follow a similar game plan with Carr and try to get McFadden and Jones-Drew more involved to take some pressure off him.

For these reasons, bettors can expect another low-scoring game with the total falling under again for both teams in Week 2, which is exactly what the Odds Shark computer is projecting.

Trends

• Texans 1-5 against the spread last 6 games as road favorites
• Raiders 2-7 straight up & ATS last 9 games as home underdogs
• Under 7-1-1 in Oakland’s last 9 games as home underdog

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark, follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.