What the Pirates' First Half Augurs for the Future

There have been a few bright spots for the Pirates in the first half.

They actually did better than .500 in the months of April and June, although May pulled them below to break even.

Over the first three months, the Pirates were also a solid 26-20 against teams outside the National League Central Division.

But looking at the first half results, one thing becomes clear: The Pirates have to do better inside their division if they want to be a winning team.

The breakdown between division rivals, other National League teams, and interleague for the first three months is shown in the following table.

Pirates' First Half Record—Breakdown

               April         May       June      Three Months

               W   L       W   L       W   L        W      L

Division      4   8       4  10       2    3        10     21

Other NL    8   3        5   5       5    5        18     13

Interleague ----        1   2       7    5          8      7

Total         12  11    10  17     14   13       36    41   

They also got off to a terrible start in July (against an unrepresentative, difficult sample of teams).

Relatively speaking, the Pirates will have the wind at their back going into the second half, with five series against teams outside their division. These include west coast teams such as San Francisco, Arizona, and Washington.

They will, however, have a tough series against Milwaukee, against whom they have not won a game so far this year. So this one series could be psychologically important.

Giving the Pirates' their best (post April) potential might leave them 10-8 over the next 18 games.

But beginning Aug. 7, the Pirates will have five weeks of games mostly against division rivals (with the exceptions being rematches against Colorado and Philadelphia). The remaining three weeks will be about half and half (although most of the non-divisional games will be against a tough LA Dodgers team).

Unfortunately, the Pirates' results have largely been defined by their pitchers. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm pitch poorly against both the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs, albeit better against the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros, with the St. Louis Cardinals being an intermediate case. 

Meanwhile, Ross Ohlendorf's 4.64 ERA belies the fact that he had front of rotation numbers against the American League, and is fifth-starter caliber against the National League. 

Thus, a lot depends on whether or not the Pirates can rehabilitate their former star pitchers, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny. If they can, the Pirates might show promise for next year, by winning 75 or more games in 2009.

If they can't, the Pirates might limp the rest of the season, winning roughly one game out of three, for another dismal 66-96 record.

Snell apparently found himself in the minors, striking out 17 in one game. And it is Snell that pitched well against the rest of the division (in 2007), even as he pitched worse outside the division. He wll be sorely needed in the second half, if he's up to speed.

Pitching so far this year in relief, Gorzelanny has greatly reduced his walks, and improved his ERA from 6.66 in 2008 to 5.19 so far in 2009. More to the point, he now has a front of rotation FIP (sabermetric ERA) of 2.83 that belies his actual ERA. And he is the other person that pitches well against the National League Central.

Charlie Morton looks surprisingly good (in a middle of rotation group that now seems to include Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf as well) except for his one bad game against Houston.

For the time being, Virgil Vasquez and Jeff Karstens seem to be the back enders, being weak against almost everyone, except for short stints.

Ideally, we'd have Snell, Gorzelanny, Duke, in the front end, Maholm, Morton, and Ohlendorf for the back end. Even if I'm overly optimistic about one of these individuals, we will still have a solid rotation.

But time is running out in 2009 for the Pirates to turn it around.

Maybe next year.