Central Florida Knights vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Odds: Analysis, Prediction

The Missouri Tigers avoided an upset last week with a solid victory and surprisingly easy cover at Toledo.

Mizzou, now 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread in its last 15 nonconference games, next heads home for an interesting matchup with the Central Florida Knights on Saturday afternoon in Columbia.

Point Spread

The Tigers opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 54.5 midweek. (Line updates and matchup report)

Why the Central Florida Knights Can Cover the Spread

The Knights opened this season with a very tough 26-24 loss to Penn State in Dublin, Ireland two weeks ago. UCF fought from behind all day, finally taking a one-point lead with just over a minute to go. But the Knights fell victim to a Lions field goal at the buzzer.

Central Florida got out-gained in that game 511-246 but allowed just 57 yards on the ground and never seemed out of it. Sophomore quarterback Justin Holman, in relief of starter Pete DiNovo, sparked the Knights, throwing for 204 yards and one score, running for two more touchdowns and making a couple of big plays during the scoring drive that temporarily gave UCF that late lead.

If Holman can play like that all season, the Knights, who have nine starters back on defense, will again be tough.

Why the Missouri Tigers Can Cover the Spread

The Tigers only have eight starters back from last season, but they're off to a 2-0 start, including an impressive win over what should be a pretty good Toledo team.

Missouri jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead last week, upped that to 35-7 early in the third quarter, then cruised from there, easily covering the spread as four-point road favorites.

The Tigers ran for 177 yards, held the ball for over 32 minutes and got five touchdown passes from sophomore QB Maty Mauk, who now owns a 19/4 career TD/INT ratio.

With its recent re-emergence, Mizzou is regularly chalked now, often by big numbers. But the Tigers have been a good bet with short spreads, covering four of their last five times out as single-digit chalk.

Smart Pick

Missouri is coming off a good win on the road but might be susceptible to a letdown in this spot. Meanwhile, Central Florida had last week off.

Also, the Knights are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last four times they've been lined as underdogs, including that shocker over vaunted Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl last January. So the smart pick here is with Coach O'Leary's boys plus the points.

Trends

• Central Florida is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
• Missouri is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered first-hand unless otherwise noted—check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.