NFL Week 2 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

Playing the over-under totals is basically fantasy football for dummies. It doesn't matter who scored—or which team scored, for that matter—just how much they did and whether the total number is higher or lower than the number set by oddsmakers.

Think of Vegas as your head-to-head opponent. Most over-under spreads are -110 or -105 at the beginning of the week for both sides, so if you go 9-7 any given week you're in the clear. Perhaps the more apt description would be fantasy football re-envisioned as a categories head-to-head league where only points matter.

Whatever. Let's tie a piece of chum to this analogy, throw it in a shark tank and move on.

The point being: I'm about to write about under-over predictions. The question when making these predictions is so ridiculously simple that not all that much analysis is needed. It comes down to whether I—someone who watches way too much football and writes about sports for a living—think these teams will outscore the number spat out by a super-complicated algorithm.

It's the ultimate man vs. machine moment. Only I'm not like fighting crime or doing anything good for the community—just offering ways to make a couple extra dollars so folks can get an extra slice of cheese on their McDouble. Oh well. To the picks we go.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (44.5)

The Steelers and Ravens are more offensively inclined than in their throwbacks of yesteryear. Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 700 combined yards last week. Le'Veon Bell looked like a Greek god in shoulder pads against a hapless Cleveland defense. Steve Smith (Sr!) looked rejuvenated after escaping a toxic situation in Carolina. But...nope! Nine of the last 10 regular-season meetings between these teams has hit below 44.5.

Take the under.

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (49)

Getting trounced by a shaky Miami ground game wasn't exactly the best vote of confidence for what was supposedly Bill Belichick's best defense in about a decade. Knowshon Moreno accounted for 134 of the 191 yards. Adrian Peterson is better at football than Knowshon Moreno. The Vikings looked strong enough on defense last week to make this a bit of a risk, but that performance came against the Rams. Tom Brady is better at football than Shaun Hill and Austin Davis.

Take the over.

David Goldman/Associated Press

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (47.5)

If Week 1 is any indication, the Saints might top the over themselves. Cleveland looked rudderless against a league-average Steelers offense before turning up the intensity late in a 30-27 loss. It's hard to tell how much that was Pittsburgh letting its feet off the gas and how much was Cleveland actually being half-decent at defense. No matter. The Saints turned in an equally disconcerting defensive performance last week as well. A 31-17 game hits this over.

Take the over.

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (48)

This feels like a trap. The Falcons and Bengals both have a ton of talent offensively, are prone to downfield strikes and have quarterbacks with regular-season resumes as solid as their postseason ones are shaky. Forty-eight seems right on the nose here—as if the oddsmakers know a 24-23 thriller is coming, blown by Matt Ryan or Andy Dalton in the last minute. My advice here would be "stay away," but since you're not paying me to give the shruggy emoticon, a gut feeling says this will be lower-scoring than people think.

Take the under.

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington (43.5)

Did you see either of these teams play offense last week? A pig would have more success learning calculus. Under. Under. Under.

Take the under.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (43.5)

A couple of variables are in play here, both related to Carolina. Despite losing a number of players in free agency and boasting one of the worst secondaries in football, the Panthers single-handedly ruined any Josh McCown-related optimism in Tampa Bay. Is Carolina still really good, or is McCown just really bad? Plus, there's the whole matter of Cam Newton walking around wearing enough Kevlar to join a SWAT team. Is he going to be Cam Newton or some lesser version? This could really go any direction.

Take the under (I guess).

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (49.5)

One of the biggest over-unders of the week is undoubtedly a testament to our national realization that the Cowboys defense is hot garbage. Tony Romo did the disastrous Dallas unit no favors with three interceptions last week, but it's going to be a long season in Jerry World. There is no unit on this team that even approaches league average. The Titans entered 2014 as a team I was bearish on, but Ken Whisenhunt's offense looked very solid last week in Arrowhead. There's a good reason this line is so high.

Take the over.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (42.5)

It's not too often two teams that combine to score 56 points in Week 1 are given a number nearly two touchdowns less the following Sunday. Such is life for the Bills and Dolphins, perpetual also-rans in the AFC East and owners of regularly shrug-worthy offensive production. One slight issue: Those same Bills and Dolphins looked pretty decent offensively last week. Both exhibited a strong ground game to the tune of more than five yards per carry and got competent performances from their young quarterbacks. All signs point to the over here, right? Nope. Sucker's bet. 

Take the under.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (43.5)

I'm not sure if Vegas oddsmakers could have made this low enough for me to think for a second about the over. The Cardinals made incompetent look like a compliment for the first three quarters against a below-average San Diego defense before squeaking out an 18-17 win. The Giants offense was a tire fire inside a dumpster during the preseason and wasn't much better in Week 1.

Take the under.

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (37)

Oh boy. These teams are not very good at football. St. Louis was flattened by a Minnesota team expected to finish in last place in the NFC North and is already on its third quarterback. Tampa Bay made Derek Anderson look competent, and its own starting quarterback is an early clubhouse leader for the 2014 Buttfumble Blunder of the Year Award. Good luck finding 37 points anywhere in this game.

Take the under.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (44.5)

The Seahawks are basically God Mode Gridiron right now, so it's hard to imagine many teams scoring enough to make this hit the over. San Diego is one such outfit. Philip Rivers was a little out of sorts in Arizona on Monday, but the Chargers had the second-best offensive DVOA in football last season. They're going to be fine. Throw in the whole Seattle being away from home thing, and this has the recipe of a pretty easy cover.

Take the over.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (46)

Faith is ultimately being thrown in the direction of Green Bay, a nine-point favorite. That means the Packers are projected to win something like 27.5-18.5 in what would be the most unexplainable football game ever. To cover both the over and the spread, Green Bay will have to score at least four touchdowns. Given the Jets' secondary woes, that might not be an issue, but you're still relying on Geno Smith to score the ball three times. Unless it's an abject blowout, this number is a little high.

Take the under.

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (39.5)

The loss of Jadeveon Clowney gives Derek Carr a temporary reprieve heading into his second NFL start. Of course, when discussing the Texans, that means he only has to deal with J.J. Watt. I'm just going to throw this out there: That's probably not going to go well. The Houston offense also looked less than spry against a below-average Washington defense last week. Unless there are defensive touchdowns—which are totally in range, by the way—it's hard to see either of these teams scoring enough to hit this relatively small number.

Take the under. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (51)

The Broncos have moved to a 12.5-point favorite and are nearly -1,000 on the moneyline. That's an amazing amount of faith in Denver. The Chiefs were a playoff team a year ago, and Vegas is treating them like the Jaguars. I guess that's what happens when you get steamrolled by a bad Titans team. But, whatever. We're not talking about real football. Until the Broncos stop being a near-guarantee for 30 points, it's hard to take the under in any game in which they're involved.

Take the over.

LM Otero/Associated Press

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (48.5)

Well, I guess one surefire way to make folks in the Windy City roll back their playoff expectations is losing to the Bills at home. Mission accomplished, Bears. The 49ers defense, viewed as the weakness on the 2014 roster, looked much better than expected last week in Dallas. Then again, it's hard not to look great when Romo is hitting defenders in the chest with passes. This is going to hit the over because the Bears offense isn't as shaky as it looked last week and the 49ers defense isn't nearly as good. That simple.

Take the over.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (53)

The highest number of the week goes to the game you'd expect. Neither Indy nor Philly looked sterling defensively in Week 1. Both have offenses that should rank inside the top 10 by season's end. These are two teams that allowed five first-half touchdown passes combined in their first game. It's a huge number for only the second weekend of the season, but it's hard to have much faith in the under.

Take the over.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All odds via Oddsshark