NFL Predictions Week 2: Upset Picks and Projections

NFL upsets are most plentiful in the first few weeks of a new season.

The funny thing about upsets in the infancy of any season is that the definition of what an upset truly is continues to evolve. What seems an upset in Week 1 of this season—Buffalo over Chicago, anyone?—may very much be looked back upon as an obvious outcome by Week 10.

For those who butter their bread with NFL picks, be it for cash or actual bread, these next few weeks are the prime time to invest. Even Vegas has yet to establish a firm grip on how the league stacks up, so feel safe with a number of upset picks.

After a full look at a schedule lined with a few upsets, let's place the microscope over a pair in particular.

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Thurs., Sept. 11)	Baltimore (-2.5)	Pittsburgh	Baltimore is a mess and has off-field distractions to overcome on a short week.
Miami at Buffalo	EVEN	Miami	Miami took care of Tom Brady, so EJ Manuel shouldn't be a problem.
Jacksonville at Washington	Washington (-4.5)	Jacksonville	See analysis below chart.
Dallas at Tennessee	Tennessee (-3.5)	Dallas	Tony Romo does not throw three picks THAT often.
Arizona at NY Giants	NY Giants (-1.5)	Arizona	The Giants defense is a mess and can't match up with a pair of great receivers.
New England at Minnesota	New England (-4.5)	Minnesota	That New England defense isn't stopping Adrian Peterson. Mike Zimmer can handle Brady well enough.
New Orleans at Cleveland	New Orleans (-6.5)	New Orleans	Cleveland's biggest weakness is under center, which is a bad recipe against Drew Brees.
Atlanta at Cincinnati	Cincinnati (-5)	Atlanta	Cincinnati's defense showed cracks last week when Baltimore actually caught the ball. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards.
Detroit at Carolina	Carolina (-1)	Detroit	Detroit touts an elite run defense and Cam Newton will be rusty upon return. Panthers cannot guard Calvin Johnson, either.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay (-4.5)	Tampa Bay	Josh McCown will continue to improve in new surroundings.
Seattle at San Diego	Seattle (-4.5)	Seattle	Seattle secondary can quiet Philip Rivers.
Houston at Oakland	EVEN	Oakland	Home team has an advantage, right?
NY Jets at Green Bay	Green Bay (-9)	NY Jets	Rex Ryan's defensive line will obliterate the Packers' offensive line.
Kansas City at Denver	Denver (-12.5)	Kansas City	As long as Andy Reid remembers Jamaal Charles is on the roster, this one should be close.
Chicago at San Francisco	San Francisco (-7)	San Francisco	Chicago's defense is a mess.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis (Mon., Sept 15)	Indianapolis (-2.5)	Philadelphia	See analysis below chart.

Odds via Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 p.m. ET, Sept. 9.

Top Week 2 Upset Picks

Jacksonville (+4.5) Over Washington

USA TODAY Sports

Once again, Jacksonville is the underdog—perhaps mostly based on reputation.

Be sure to take full advantage.

Last week, the Jaguars were almost a two-touchdown underdog in Philadelphia. For a fleeting half, it appeared like Gus Bradley's team was set to shock the world.

Of course, the Eagles went on a 34-0 run in the second half to cover the spread, but the point stands that these Jaguars are slowly but surely on the rise.

Veteran Chad Henne has proved capable under center, and he went for 266 yards and two scores in that game. He made a star out of wideout Allen Hurns, who caught four passes for 110 yards and those two scores.

Any whispers about the offense being doomed without Justin Blackmon are clearly unwarranted.

The defense obviously has some work to do, but it's hard to get a proper read on that aspect with the unit's lone game coming against Chip Kelly's innovative offense.

By the way, look at this Washington team.

After a horrible preseason in which there were whispers that Kirk Cousins was the better player, quarterback Robert Griffin III went out in Week 1 against Houston and laid a major egg, throwing for 267 yards and fumbling twice—once in a quite critical manner, as captured by Chris Russell of ESPN 980:

"When games are so close, a couple of big plays are going to be the difference," Washington coach Jay Gruden told The Associated Press. "We're going to be in a lot of those close games, so we have to figure out how to make them and how to stop them."

Look, Washington is coming off a loss to a team that entered last week's game on a 14-game losing streak. RGIII looks absolutely lost in a somewhat new offense. His offensive line is a mess. The defense seems as bad, if not worse, than last year's unit.

Led by Ryan Davis, who tallied two sacks last week against the Eagles, expect the Jaguars to fluster RGIII into more mistakes as the team rolls to its first victory.

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Redskins 17

Philadelphia (+2.5) Over Indianapolis

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Speaking of those Eagles, Kelly's team is a pretty sound upset pick this week, too.

At first glance, the Eagles appear to be in trouble. A makeshift offensive line crafted by Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer due to injuries features a few lesser-known names:

Then again, the Indianapolis Colts' pass rush is not exactly as stout as Jacksonville's—as strange as that sounds to say—as the hodgepodge of names will be without elite rusher Robert Mathis for the rest of the season.

Despite a few early turnovers, Nick Foles still ended the win over Jacksonville with 322 yards and two touchdowns to one interception. Running back LeSean McCoy was his usual self with more than 100 total yards and Jeremy Maclin proved himself as a No. 1 receiver with four receptions for 97 yards and a score.

Now look at the Colts, a team that rushed for all of 54 yards against Denver last week, 19 of which belonged to quarterback Andrew Luck.

He managed a pair of touchdowns and interceptions as well as 370 yards, but outside of Reggie Wayne, his top target turned out to be veteran running back Ahmad Bradshaw (five catches for 70 yards).

The Colts likely won't fail to score until late in the second quarter on Monday night, but the blueprint for Philadelphia's prolific offense has been written: Abuse the Indianapolis secondary with big-bodied tight ends and never look back.

McCoy is not going to have any issue rushing the football, and the Colts simply cannot line up and slow every weapon the Eagles bring to the table, including free-agent acquisition Darren Sproles (71 rushing yards and a touchdown last week).

Luck remains one of the NFL's best overall players, but a lack of talent around him continues to drag him down. When it comes to picks, be sure to take advantage of this fact.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Colts 21

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).