Sputtering Start to NFL Season? Good News, It May Not Mean Anything!

That gasping gahh-shlump, gahh-shlump you hear this week is the entire New England region hyperventilating into a paper bag. 

The Patriots lost the season opener 33-20 to the Miami Dolphins. It was no last-second, ticky-tacky penalty, these things happen kind of loss. The Dolphins beat the Patriots physically in the trenches. The Patriots came away battered and a little confused. It was a convincing, no-nonsense upset.

Patriots fans don’t handle ordinary losses well: They interpret them not as off games but as rifts in the cosmic balance or metaphysical conundrums, the way primitive tribesmen view a volcanic eruption. But a divisional loss and fundamental beating in the season opener? Gahh-shlump, gahh-shlump.

Saints fans are also nervous. What happened to Rob Ryan’s defense in that overtime 37-34 loss to the rebuilding Falcons? Bears fans hoping for a quick turnaround were stunned by the lowly Bills in a 20-17 overtime loss. And those were just the upsets: Week 1 featured close calls (Steelers needed a last-second field goal to hold off the Browns, Eagles surging back from 17-0 to beat the Jaguars, Broncos narrowly holding off Colts), and put-you-in-your-place thrashings (the Cowboys looked silly, the Packers started their Week 1 disillusionment early).

Everyone jumps to conclusions in Week 1. Smart, savvy people make jokes about jumping to conclusions, then jump to slightly different conclusions. A Week 1 upset or blowout can drive the national NFL narrative into some deep and interesting ditches. But Patriots, Bears, Saints and other teams' fans can take solace in the fact that there is a long history of shocking Week 1 results that turned out to be not just utterly meaningless, but completely misleading.

Lawyered Up

Older Patriots fans know just where to find that panic kit full of paper bags, yoga mats, chamomile tea and Windham Hill “Serenity” soundscapes. It is right where they left it exactly 11 years ago.

The Bills trounced the Patriots 31-0 in the 2003 season opener. Tom Brady threw four interceptions, including a pick-six to Bills lineman Sam Adams. Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy, a pair of ex-Patriots, played well in the blowout. Patriots defenders lined up incorrectly and shouted at each other after blown plays, not unlike the confusion and rotating offensive linemen of Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins.

Storylines took on their own life. Were the Patriots “distracted” by the loss of Milloy, who left the team just five days before the season in a contract dispute? Was Brady stuck in a slump that dated back to the second half of 2002? The “Patriots Way” had not yet ascended to tax-exempt religious status. Had the 2001 Super Bowl been a one-and-done, tuck-assisted fluke?

"There was nothing good that came out of that game," Brady said in 2003. "That's not us. We've got to get better and I think we will get better."

Brady was right. The Patriots went 14-2 and returned to the Super Bowl. The mighty Bills fell to 6-10. Bledsoe and Milloy did little of note the rest of the year. But for a few September weeks, the Patriots are doomed without Lawyer Milloy was a real NFL narrative.

Replace Lawyer Milloy with Logan Mankins—you don’t even have to change the initials!—and not much has changed in 11 years.

The Fantastic Spectacle (starring Gus Frerotte)

Dolphins fans are understandably thrilled after the Patriots upset, but those with long memories know that a season-opening upset against a powerhouse can be sadly misleading.

The Dolphins beat Mike Shanahan’s Broncos 34-10 to open the 2005 season. Those Broncos were a lot like the current Patriots: perennial Super Bowl champs of yesteryear, still very dangerous. Jake Plummer was no Tom Brady, mind you, but those Broncos were formidable and the Dolphins were coming off a 4-12 season and counting on a new franchise savior: Nick Saban.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Saban’s debut earned rave reviews from the press and the crowd. “The Dolphins' defeat of the Broncos was a fantastic spectacle, made all the more joyous by the team's ecstatic fans,” wrote the Miami Herald. “Truly, no Dolphins have held their devotees in their hands like this since the days of Dan Marino.” Everything clicked that day: the Gus Frerotte-led offense, Saban’s patented defense, an unknown special teamer and offensive role player with four receptions named Wes Welker.

But while Saban aced his first test, coaching in the NFL is a brutal curriculum. The Dolphins fell to 4-7 before a late-season hot streak pushed them above .500. The Saban regime deteriorated into front-office intrigue; 15 months after holding Dolphins fans in his palm, Saban was plotting his escape by not-so-quietly cozying up to Alabama.

The Broncos? They went 13-3 and reached the conference championship game.

Revenge, Interrupted

Sunday’s 17-0 halftime deficit to the Jaguars felt awfully familiar to Eagles fans. The Buccaneers shut the Eagles out 17-0 in the 2003 Monday Night season opener.

The Buccaneers embarrassed the highly favored Eagles in the 2002 NFC Championship Game, going on to beat the Raiders in the Super Bowl. The Eagles, then regarded as the best team in the conference and making their debut at brand-new Lincoln Financial Field, wanted revenge. Instead, Donovan McNabb threw for just 148 yards, the all-new Duce Staley-Correll Buckhalter-Brian Westbrook backfield rushed for just 19 yards, and Brad Johnson calmly picked the Eagles defense apart in the second half, just as he had done in the playoffs.

RUSTY KENNEDY/Associated Press

This was a bygone era when McNabb and Reid were still heroic figures in Philly, though the Buccaneers' shutout gave voice to the same extreme doubters who hollered for Mark Sanchez at 2 p.m. on Sunday. (Yes, that happened). “Donovan McNabb's 2003 debut was the stuff of which legends are unmade,” wrote The Philadelphia Inquirer. Back-to-back short-sheetings by the Buccaneers looked like a referendum on all things disappointing in Philly: from McNabb and Reid to a disorganized defense that allowed Warren Sapp to rumble 14 yards on a gadget play.

McNabb and Reid never silenced Philly’s eternal chorus of critics, but they did lead the Eagles to a 12-4 record in 2003 and a Super Bowl appearance in 2004. Staley, Buckhalter and Westbrook became the “Three-Headed Monster.”

The Buccaneers slinked back to 7-9, sabotaged by a mistake-prone offense. That Monday Night shutout looked like a continuation of their Super Bowl success. But Week 1 can be a conclusion as well as a continuation.

Missing Emmitt, Breaking Shackles

The Cowboys’ 28-17 Sunday loss to the 49ers was hardly an upset, but it was certainly upsetting for Cowboys fans, who are used to their team saving its worst tomfoolery for fourth quarters and season finales. Cowboys fans who remember the glory days, however, know that opening day results must be taken with a grain of salt.

Tim DeFrisco/Getty Images

Emmitt Smith held out in a contract dispute after the team’s 1992 Super Bowl season. In the 1993 opener, the Cowboys faced the Redskins, coached by handpicked Joe Gibbs replacement Richie Petitbon. Fourth-round rookie Derrick Lassic replaced Emmitt. Lassic played adequately, but the Cowboys were flat on both sides of the ball in a 35-16 upset loss.

“The Washington Redskins sent a resounding message to the rest of the NFL Monday night,” wrote The Charlotte Observer. “Questions have abounded about Washington since coach Joe Gibbs' sudden resignation in March … It was Dave Wannstadt, the Dallas defensive coordinator who left to take over the Chicago Bears, who looked missed.

“Oh, and of course, Emmitt Smith was missed too.”

Petitbon, a longtime defensive coordinator under Gibbs, was popular with the Redskins media. Many of his changes—like demoting Art Monk from the starting lineup—were hailed as get-tough reforms. Petitbon’s adjustments worked brilliantly in that Monday Night blowout, with Monk catching a touchdown off the bench and the redesigned offense humming. Meanwhile, Jerry Jones threatened to cut his contract offer to Emmitt by one-sixteenth to reflect the missing game. Cowboys fans braced for an ugly holdout to go with their suddenly ugly defense.

A second Cowboys loss cured Jones of his uncharacteristic penny-pinching. Emmitt returned, the defense rebounded, and the Cowboys won their second straight Super Bowl. The Petitbon renaissance in Washington was short-lived: The Redskins lost six straight games after that opener, with Petitbon waffling between Rich Gannon, Cary Conklin and banged-up Mark Rypien at quarterback for over a month, sometimes making changes every offensive series. Petitbon was fired at the end of the season; the Redskins finished 4-12.

RON HEFLIN/Associated Press

Four years later, the Cowboys were fading champions looking for redemption on and off the field. The upstart Panthers shocked them in the 1996 Wild Card Round; numerous legal problems, including Michael Irvin’s cocaine charges, had both tarnished the team’s luster and hampered them on the field.

So an opening day 37-7 clobbering of the Steelers, who gave the Cowboys a tough battle in the Super Bowl two seasons earlier, was taken as a sign that the Wowboys were back in business. “They spent last year in controversy and courtrooms, sometimes even in handcuffs,” wrote The Associated Press after the game. “Everyone said the Dallas Cowboys weren't what they used to be.

"They were right. The Cowboys might be even better.”

But the Cowboys were not better. They still had Irvin, Emmitt, Troy Aikman and Deion Sanders, but bad drafts were eating the team away at its core. After a 3-1 start, the Cowboys began to crumble; they lost their last five games and finished 6-10. The golden age was over. The Cowboys squad we know today—the team with a handful of stars but a Jones-assembled depth chart and puppet coaches—was born soon after that boffo debut. The Steelers dusted themselves off and won 11 games, making their way to the AFC title game.

Hot Starts and Hard Luck

As for the Bears: Fans cannot be pleased with the loss to the Bills, but they should keep in mind that their team has a recent track record for making “statements” in the opener, then growing silent late in the season.

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

The Bears dominated the Falcons on opening day in 2011, forcing three turnovers and sacking Matt Ryan five times in a 30-12 win. But that was the season Jay Cutler and Matt Forte got hurt, leaving Caleb Hanie to turn the ball over for a month. The Bears finished 8-8. The Falcons finished that season 10-6 and reached the playoffs.

The Bears debuted in 2012 with a 41-21 drubbing of rookie Andrew Luck and the under-construction, woeful Colts. Luck threw three interceptions and fumbled against the Bears. A few months later, the tables had turned: Luck’s Colts stormed into the playoffs while the Bears reeled from a midseason losing streak that exposed them as predictable on offense and over the hill on defense. Maybe the Bears can trend upward instead of downward this season.

The Bills, as noted earlier, have a knack for season-opening surprises. They hammered the Chiefs 41-7 in the 2011 season opener (final Bills record: 6-10) and crushed an unrecognizably bad Seahawks team 34-10 in the 2008 opener (final Bills record: 7-9). When not beating the Patriots, the Bills love to throw Week 1 scares into them: a 23-21 squeaker last year, 25-24 in 2009, 19-17 in 2006. When the Bills are facing a good team on opening Sunday, take the points, but don’t make any decisions you will regret before the end of September.

Completely, Utterly, Somewhat Meaningless

Of course, most great teams play well at the start of the season, while bad teams generally show their true colors right away. The examples above were curated from a pool of games in which an eventual playoff team lost to a non-playoff team in the opener. That has happened 41 times in the last 20 years.

Eventual playoff teams beat non-playoff teams in the season opener 127 times in the last 20 years. So really, there’s about a 25 percent chance that an upset like the ones the Patriots, Saints and Bears suffered on Sunday is just a radar blip, and a 75 percent chance that the status quo and balance of power are starting to shift drastically.

Oh dear, that just made the gahh-shlump, gahh-shlump sound louder.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.

All quoted material was obtained through archived records at either News Library or Newspaper Archive.