Week 1 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

If you woke up this morning feeling extra refreshed and like you want to tackle something, it's obvious that you are ready for the start of football. We got a little taste of the NFL on Thursday, but now is when we can plan our day around watching hours of it without getting up to do anything. 

Really, the only people still doing work at this juncture are the oddsmakers. Their goal, if you're into the betting thing, is to make your life difficult by setting lines and spreads at the point where it makes you pull your hair out. 

Have no fear, as we are here to help you with all those last-minute predictions. We've also got a look at where the oddsmakers see things going and tell you what's right and wrong with some of these spreads. 

Matchup	Over/Under	Prediction
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons	51	Saints, 27-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Pick 'Em)	42.5	Bengals, 24-21
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-7.5)	47.5	Bills, 24-21
Washington at Houston Texans (-3)	44.5	Washington, 23-17
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)	43.5	Chiefs, 24-14
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins	46.5	Patriots, 31-17
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-5)	40.5	Jets, 20-10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-11)	52	Eagles, 31-10
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)	41.5	Steelers, 24-17
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3)	43	Rams, 17-13
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys	51	49ers, 27-24
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)	37.5	Panthers, 23-17
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-9)	55	Broncos, 34-24
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-7)	47	Lions, 31-27
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3)	46	Chargers, 34-28

Lock of the Week: Philadelphia (-11) vs. Jacksonville

Michael Perez/Associated Press

At some point it just seems like you are picking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. This franchise has been a laughingstock for so long that you want to root for them. While there is more talent in Jacksonville now than in recent years, the team is still overmatched in every conceivable way. 

The Jaguars are starting a capable quarterback in Chad Henne, but who is he throwing to? Cecil Shorts has a hamstring issue that has left him unable to play this week. Ace Sanders is entering his second year, while Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are rookies. 

On the other side of the field, even without DeSean Jackson, the Eagles are well equipped to score a lot of points. Nick Foles won't have another season with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, but he's going to be solid with Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper, and rookie Jordan Matthews will get worked in nicely as a slot option. 

Even if the passing game regresses in Philadelphia, all Chip Kelly has to do is look in the backfield to LeSean McCoy for offense. He led the league in rushing yards last year and sounds more motivated than ever to top that, via Sheil Kapadia of Phillymag.com:

"

I’m 26, I’m young. There’s gonna be times where players [say], ‘I wish I could have did this better. I wish I could have done this, done that.’ And I don’t want to be one of them guys," McCoy said Wednesday after practice. "That’s why I’m busting my butt to do all the right things, stay in shape, mentally stay on top of the game and being the best. I think if I do that, I’ll take care of the small things and go out there and just play the game the way it’s supposed to be played and the way I play, I should be fine.

"

While we have 17 more weeks to judge whether McCoy has gotten better or not, there's no doubt that Philadelphia's offensive firepower can make up for its lack of talent on the defensive line. 

Upset of the Week: Buffalo (+7.5) at Chicago

Tony Tribble/Associated Press

This is just one of those gut calls that doesn't really make sense. You know there's going to be an upset in Week 1 because they happen every week in the NFL. The Bears enter the year with as much offensive firepower as anyone in the NFC. 

Jay Cutler's ability to sling the ball all over the field has never been better served with Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett waiting to catch passes on the outside and over the middle. 

However, there are serious concerns for the Bears on the other side of the ball. Jon Greenberg of ESPN.com painted a bleak picture about the back half of the defensive unit:

"

The linebacking corps has wily veterans in BBQ King Lance Briggs and D.J. Williams, but if Shea McClellin starts, wow. Jon Bostic had too much on his plate last season, but still has promise. Can he realize it this season? It's telling that Marc Trestman has danced around who will start at safety. Corners should be good, health willing, but all in all, this looks like a bottom-third defense. 

"

Last year, the Bears had the worst run defense in the NFL, and it wasn't close. They gave up 2,583 rushing yards—Atlanta was next with 2,173 yards allowed. 

Buffalo's specialty on offense is running the ball. The Bills ranked second in the league last year with 144.2 yards per game. Their issues throwing it with E.J. Manuel are well-documented, but they couldn't throw it last year and still had a successful ground attack. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the Bears wound up winning. They are the better team and can air it out with anyone in the league. There's just something about Buffalo's ability to run the ball and control the clock, negating Marc Trestman's offense, that makes me think the Bills are going to pull off a shocker. 

Take the Under: Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (O/U: 40.5)

Ben Margot/Associated Press

It's easy to make a case for virtually all the odds that have been set in Week 1, except the over/under for 40.5 points in the Raiders-Jets game. This implies that someone believes these two teams will average 20 points between them. 

The Jets scored 20 points in just eight games last year, and the Raiders broke that barrier just nine times. Oakland is starting a rookie quarterback against Rex Ryan's blitz-happy defense. I don't care how good Derek Carr looked in preseason, his knock coming out of college was an inability to adjust when pressure came. 

In his draft analysis for Bleacher Report, Ryan Lownes wrote that Carr might be the best quarterback in the 2014 class if you give him a clean pocket:

"

Simply put: If you give him a clean pocket and time to throw, he can make it rain.

...

One major drawback of playing in a pass-happy college spread offense is that Carr has not developed refined footwork. He has a tendency to throw either flatfooted or while retreating in the pocket. Due to his arm strength, he is able to compensate for these lapses to a degree. In the Mountain West Conference, he may have been able to get away with sloppy footwork, but to reach his potential in the NFL he must make this an area of focus.

"

The Jets may not be fun to watch on offense, but we know that Ryan can coach a defense. He's got plenty of toys to work with, especially on the line with Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. Those two weigh over 600 pounds combined, creating their own lanes for sacks or opening holes for edge-rushers like Calvin Pace. 

As far as New York's offensive contributions, until Geno Smith shows consistency, it's hard to trust him as a starting quarterback. He's just entering his second year, so it's not time to hit the panic button. He was better down the stretch with a completion percentage of 58.6, 790 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in the last four games. 

Smith still doesn't have anyone to throw to on the outside. Eric Decker is a nice complementary piece but lacks the separation skills to thrive when Peyton Manning isn't throwing him the ball. 

Offense will be hard to come by for the Raiders and Jets on Sunday, so if they even come close to reaching the over, it will be a miracle. 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985