Fantasy Football 2014: 3 Mid-Round Sleepers to Start in Week 1

For one reason or another, they fell.

Maybe talent was never a question, but durability was. Maybe he’s always been a backup and is finally getting a shot at a full-time starting role. Maybe he’s a high-upside sophomore who routinely slips rounds beyond his collegiate teammate as “just another guy.”

Despite no bye weeks or preseason injuries to consensus first-round picks, these three guys still deserve consideration to start for your fantasy team in Week 1.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears

The only reason Jay Cutler isn’t a must-start fantasy QB is that his injury history has pushed him so far down draft boards that you might also own another must-start guy like Peyton Manning; if you drafted Cutler, you may have done so just to have a high-upside bye-week replacement.

In most cases, though, Cutler is vying for that starting spot with someone who wasn’t drafted in the first three rounds.

In the six full games he played in 2013 before sustaining a groin injury at Washington, Cutler averaged 271.7 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception per appearance. That was his first season with renowned quarterback guru Marc Trestman, who would eventually guide backup Josh McCown to 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013.

Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is beginning his third professional season and the Bears have nothing but continuity among their top four targets (Brandon Marshall, Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte). They’ll be at home against the Buffalo Bills, who allowed opposing QBs to throw for 215 yards per game in their respective home stadiums.

However, ball-hawking free safety Jairus Byrd departed the Bills via free agency.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Toby Gerhart boasts a 4.7 career yards-per-carry average, and it’s not one of those things that comes about because he’s a shifty little jitterbug who only gets two or three touches per week.

No. Dude’s 230 pounds. He just played behind Adrian Peterson for four years.

As the Jacksonville Jaguars’ new No. 1 back, Gerhart figures to see his workload increase dramatically. He has carried the ball 11 or more times in a single game nine times through his career so far. In those games, he has that same 4.7 yards-per-carry average (697 yards on 148 attempts) with four (three rushing, one receiving) total scores.

He’s also caught at least one pass during each appearance more often than not, and topped out at eight receptions in a game against the Denver Broncos in 2011.

Gerhart’s Week 1 opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, were top-five against the run in terms of yards allowed per carry (3.8), but they allowed 12 TDs on the ground (15th in the NFL) on 443 rushing attempts (12th).

The fifth-year back will get some opportunities. His expected volume alone deserves consideration for a starting spot if you didn’t go RB twice with your first few picks.

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Titans

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Justin Hunter caught multiple passes in just four games last season and didn’t convert half of his total targets. Yet, 16 of his 18 receptions went for first downs and four of them went for touchdowns, as he averaged 19.7 yards per catch.

That was also his rookie season.

The former Tennessee Volunteer is expected to make strides as a sophomore, but he didn’t show as many flashes of brilliance as his former teammate, Cordarrelle Patterson. As a result of five touchdowns in his last four games, Patterson’s average draft position on ESPN.com was 63.3.

Hunter’s? 129.8.

Yet, Hunter has more 100-yard games (two) to his credit than Patterson (one). Both have new offensive minds in town, increasing their respective fantasy upsides.

Even if Hunter is the No. 3 receiver in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, he could still see 100 targets in 2014. Over the last five years, Whisenhunt’s No. 3 wideout has seen anywhere from 58 (Early Doucet in 2010) to 98 targets (Doucet in 2011).

The Kansas City Chiefs allowed 266.9 receiving yards per game in 2013, on a league-leading 12.8 yards per catch. Only two teams (the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens) allowed more 40-yard passing plays. Kansas City also gave up the third-most (63) 20-yard connections; only the Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars gave up more.

Don’t be surprised if Hunter gets behind—or jumps over—the Chiefs defense in Week 1.

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