NFL Picks: Week 1 Against the Spread

Summers always go far too fast, but somehow, paradoxically, the NFL preseason seems to last forever. Luckily, the wait is officially over.

So, what have we learned? For one, don't draft a fantasy team too early (a lineup of Sam Bradford, Ray Rice, Josh Gordon and Wes Welker doesn't look so hot all of a sudden). 

Secondly? Gambling makes everything more interesting.

The NFL season kicks off with a killer Thursday night game, as the defending champion Seattle Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. (By the way, you know you've made it as a player when the game is prefaced with your name followed by "and the.")

There are several key matchups, and the two Monday night games are solid, but nothing might beat the marquee Sunday night contest, as Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (there it is again!) host his former employers, the Indianapolis Colts.

Here are nine Week 1 battles worth taking note of, with the lines courtesy of NFL Picks 2014.

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

USA TODAY Sports

Odds: Seahawks -5

The Packers are the betting underdogs facing the defending Super Bowl champions. Seattle is a killer place for opponents to come away with a win, which the Packers will not do in the opening game. Seattle's dominant D showed what it could do on the big stage against a historic Denver Broncos offense in February. Expect similar results here. 

Pick Against the Spread: The Seahawks will win this home game and cover the five-point spread.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

David Goldman/Associated Press

Odds: Saints -3

The Saints are the surprisingly slight road favorites in this game. They are facing a Falcons squad that dealt with many injuries last season and had only four wins. Drew Brees will lead the big-time New Orleans air attack and will tear apart a Falcons pass defense that ranked 21st in the NFL last season.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has some weapons (although one less with the retirement of Tony Gonzalez), but will have a hard time facing a Saints secondary that ranked as one of the league's best in 2013.

Pick Against the Spread: While the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five games between these NFC South rivals, the Saints will come marching into Atlanta and cover the spread.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Karl Walter/Getty Images

Odds: Steelers -6 

One handicapper's pick against the spread believes that the Steelers just aren’t who they used to be on defense. Although the Steel Curtain days may be gone for now, they are facing nonthreatening Browns starting quarterback Brian Hoyer and won't need to worry about star wide receiver Josh Gordon. Last year, Pittsburgh were 2-0 against Cleveland and both wins came by double digits.

Pick Against the Spread: The Steelers will win and cover the six-point spread.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Odds: Patriots -4

The Pats are the road betting favorite facing Miami in this AFC East matchup. Last season, in their house, the Fish prevailed by four points. However, New England made several key offseason additions to their defense, which will make the difference facing a Dolphins offense that has some issues.

Pick Against the Spread: While Tom Brady will do Tom Brady things, the D will be the reason New England wins and covers this one.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Odds: Ravens -2.5 

The Ravens had a formidable defense last season—as they do in most seasons—but their offense really struggled. They open this campaign with some new weapons for quarterback Joe Flacco, but it will still not be enough facing the Bengals in Baltimore. Andy Dalton leads a good Cincy offense, but the defense will be the difference-maker in this NFC North faceoff. Last year, the Bengals defense ranked fifth in the NFL. Expect similar success on that side of the ball here. 

Pick Against the Spread: Take the Bengals in this game, which would buck the betting trends, since the home team is undefeated ATS in the last four games between these division rivals.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

Odds: 49ers -5

Not surprisingly, San Fran opens the season as road favorites. It possesses a dynamic offense led by Colin Kaepernick and the ageless Frank Gore, and the defense ain't too shabby, either. Tony Romo has some weapons, but the Cowboys are simply suspect on the other side of the ball.

Pick Against the Spread: The 49ers will win and cover on the road. The main reason? Who on Dallas will stop them from scoring?

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Odds: Broncos -7 

Yes, they were schooled the last time they took the field in a game that mattered. Yes, it's Peyton's former team. In other words, the Broncos have plenty of motivation in the opener and thus should dissect an Indy D that has issues on that side of the ball. Heir apparent Andrew Luck will do well, but he just doesn't have the same tool chest that Manning has—even minus a Wes Welker.

Pick Against the Spread: The host Broncos will win, cover and begin their quest for a second chance at a title on the right foot. 

New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions

USA TODAY Sports

Odds: Lions -4.5

The Lions are the favorite in the first of a Monday night double feature, and with Matthew Stafford leading the charge, they will get it done in front of a home crowd. The Giants have looked solid in the preseason, but so what—remember they won two Super Bowls after a couple unmemorable regular seasons. Facing Stafford and Megatron will make it quite difficult to keep the Lions from racking up yards through the air.

Pick Against the Spread: The Lions win and cover. Consider the over as well, with both squads dealing with defensive shortcomings.

San Diego Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals

USA TODAY Sports

Odds: Cardinals -3 

The Cardinals are flying under the radar this season while residing in a killer NFC West, but they did win 10 games last year and one of these days they're bound to string a couple winning campaigns together, no? The defense is for real, coming off being the top-ranked unit against the run in 2013. The Chargers should make it a battle with Philip Rivers looking to pick up where he left off in a nice bounce-back year, but the Cards should prevail at home. 

Pick Against the Spread: Arizona will prove last season was no fluke and, on the tails of its D, will win and cover the narrow spread.