Fantasy Football 2014: QB Rankings and Point Projections for Week 1 Matchups

Now that your fantasy drafts are complete and the regular season is here, it's time to set the lineups for Week 1 on your way to winning a championship. While running back is still the most valuable position in fantasy football, the quarterback continues to grow in importance. 

However, due to the pass-happy nature of the NFL today, it's easier to find a high-scoring quarterback in the draft than an elite running back. That doesn't mean all quarterbacks are created equal, as we all know. 

Finding the right matchup is just as important as drafting the right guy. There's another conundrum for Week 1, because we have no idea what teams are going to look like yet. We have ideas and assumptions, but until the games kick off, it's all speculation. 

In other words, don't panic if your results from this week don't line up with your overall expectations. It's a long year, and things will change dramatically over the next 17 weeks. We do have official rankings for the quarterbacks and point projections for this week, so keep these in mind when filling out your rosters. 

Pos.	Player	Matchup	Projection
1	Peyton Manning	vs. Indianapolis	29
2	Drew Brees	at Atlanta	28
3	Nick Foles	vs. Jacksonville	26
4	Colin Kaepernick	at Dallas	22
5	Andrew Luck	at Denver	21
6	Matthew Stafford	vs. New York Giants	19
7	Tom Brady	at Miami	18
8	Matt Ryan	vs. New Orleans	16
9	Tony Romo	vs. San Francisco	15
10	Cam Newton	at Tampa Bay	15
11	Jay Cutler	vs. Buffalo	13
12	Philip Rivers	at Arizona	13
13	Carson Palmer	vs. San Diego	12
14	Alex Smith	vs. Tennessee	12
15	Ben Roethlisberger	vs. Cleveland	11
16	Robert Griffin III	at Houston	10
17	Ryan Tannehill	vs. New England	9
18	Andy Dalton	at Baltimore	9
19	Eli Manning	at Detroit	8
20	Joe Flacco	vs. Cincinnati	8

Projections are for standard scoring leagues

Quarterback to Love in Week 1: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

Ben Margot/Associated Press

It's been a trying offseason and preseason for the San Francisco 49ers, on and off the field. Looking at things from just an X's and O's perspective, the preseason was a mess and left a lot of people skeptical. 

Colin Kaepernick was just 12-for-22 with no touchdowns, and the offense was held to three field goals in three preseason games. So why do we love the 49ers' starting quarterback in Week 1?

For starters, stop looking at preseason stats. The games don't count, and there's a different attitude when things matter. It also helps that Kaepernick has a matchup with a Dallas defense that was historically bad in 2013. 

The Cowboys had the third-worst defense in history by total yards allowed and second-worst ever by first downs allowed, according to Charean Williams of the Dallas Star-Telegram. Their solution to upgrade the unit was to release DeMarcus Ware and let Jason Hatcher leave in free agency. 

On top of that, the Cowboys defense lost linebacker Sean Lee for the year to a knee injury in organized team activities and cornerback Orlando Scandrick for four games due to a suspension. Other than that, everything is just fine in Jerry's World. 

Kaepernick has more weapons to play with this year than at any point in 2013. Michael Crabtree is healthy; Anquan Boldin is as reliable as any receiver in the game; Vernon Davis is a red-zone monster; Stevie Johnson has the potential to be a fantasy sleeper this year; Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington can take the top off a defense. 

Plus, if something breaks down in the passing game, Kaepernick has the ability to tuck and run. He does that as well as any quarterback in the league, so there are points all over the field for him to rack up against a depleted Dallas defense. 

Quarterback to Sit in Week 1: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

There's a lot of love for the Pittsburgh Steelers leading up to the season that doesn't make sense. The defense is still the oldest in the NFL one year after allowing the 12th-most rushing yards in the league. 

Ben Roethlisberger was solid last year with 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns, so why is he not a good fantasy start in Week 1 this season? Quite simply, his matchup isn't very good.

The Cleveland Browns have plenty of issues on offense, notably at the quarterback spot, but the defense has the ability to keep them in a lot of games. Last year, when the team was also dealing with issues under center, they still ranked ninth in pass yards allowed. 

Cleveland's front office also took measures to upgrade the secondary by signing Donte Whitner to replace T.J. Ward. Whitner isn't a great coverage safety but has an attitude and knows how to play center field to make sure receivers think twice about going over the middle. 

There will be weeks Roethlisberger is a must-start quarterback, but if you have another option to use, go ahead and use it. 

Sleeper of the Week: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Even though I put him low on my top-20 rankings for the week, Carson Palmer has the potential to put up huge numbers with a great matchup against San Diego on Monday night. 

The biggest knock against Palmer is turnovers. He's been an interception machine throughout his career but especially the last four years with 72. The rest of his numbers are terrific, with completion percentages over 60, at least 22 touchdown passes and at least 3,970 yards in three of the last four years. 

ESPN's Trey Wingo tweeted out his sleeper quarterback for the season, agreeing with my selection:

Part of Palmer's turnover issues last year came as a result of Bruce Arians' offense, which uses a lot of deep passes. Remember two years ago when Arians was leading Andrew Luck in Indianapolis? He threw 18 interceptions before getting a new offensive coordinator in 2013, cutting that number in half. 

Palmer doesn't have the luxury of a new offensive coordinator but will benefit in Week 1 by going against a San Diego secondary that ranked 29th in passing yards allowed and opponent completion percentage last year. 

It also doesn't hurt Palmer's value that he has Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd on the outside to throw to. Both of them are listed at 6'3" and capable of just going up and catching the deep ball when it comes. 

I won't say to start Palmer every week, but this matchup is a great way to steal points from your opponent. 

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