Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections: Stat Predictions for Top 100 Players

You did your pre-draft research. Then you nailed the draft and talked a little smack to your friends. Now all you have to do is coach your fantasy football team to a championship.

That journey begins in Week 1, and there is a big difference between starting the season 1-0 and 0-1, at least from a psychological standpoint. There are plenty of season-defining decisions still on the horizon, like how to replace your injured running back and determining which Week 1 breakout player is worth a waiver target, so it is important to get the year started off on the right foot.

With that in mind, here are some projections for 100 players in the league. So as not to completely weight it toward quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, we made sure to include some representatives from every position and look at a sleeper in each spot.

The “top” players were determined using ESPN.com’s preseason rankings for the top 20 quarterbacks, 25 running backs, 25 wide receivers, 10 tight ends, 10 kickers and 10 defenses. 

Best of luck on the virtual field.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Peyton Manning	Indianapolis Colts	320 passing yards, 3 TD
2	Aaron Rodgers	Seattle Seahawks	245 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
3	Drew Brees	Atlanta Falcons	345 passing yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
4	Matthew Stafford	New York Giants	330 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
5	Andrew Luck	Denver Broncos	310 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
6	Cam Newton	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	198 passing yards, 65 rushing yards, 2 TD
7	Robert Griffin III	Houston Texans	145 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, 1 pass TD, 1 rush TD
8	Nick Foles	Jacksonville Jaguars	285 passing yards, 3 TD
9	Colin Kaepernick	Dallas Cowboys	200 passing yards, 97 rushing yards, 2 pass TD, 1 rush TD
10	Russell Wilson	Green Bay Packers	167 passing yards, 44 rushing yards, 1 TD
11	Matt Ryan	New Orleans Saints	300 passing yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
12	Tom Brady	Miami Dolphins	220 passing yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
13	Tony Romo	San Francisco 49ers	310 passing yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
14	Philip Rivers	Arizona Cardinals	218 passing yards, 1 TD
15	Jay Cutler	Buffalo Bills	295 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
16	Ben Roethlisberger	Cleveland Browns	135 passing yards, 35 rushing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
17	Andy Dalton	Baltimore Ravens	215 passing yards, 2 TD
18	Eli Manning	Detroit Lions	183 passing yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
19	Carson Palmer	San Diego Chargers	190 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
20	Josh McCown	Carolina Panthers	225 passing yards, 25 rushing yards, 2 TD

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Sleeper: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are going to score points, simple as that. Jay Cutler will be the quarterback engineering those long drives, and your fantasy team will benefit from having him as an option.

He finished with a career-best passer rating of 89.2 last year and should be more familiar with Marc Trestman’s offense. Oh, he also still has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett to work with every week.

If Cutler finds a way to get the ball to the playmakers, he will score plenty of fantasy points all year.

One word of warning, though, for Week 1—the Buffalo Bills finished fourth in the NFL in opposing passing yards allowed last year and could limit his production. The question now becomes do you trust Chicago’s weapons or fear the Buffalo defense? 

The thought here is that it is too much offensive firepower to ignore.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Adrian Peterson	St. Louis Rams	120 total yards, 2 TD
2	LeSean McCoy	Jacksonville Jaguars	195 total yards, 3 TD
3	Jamaal Charles	Tennessee Titans	168 total yards, 2 TD
4	Matt Forte	Buffalo Bills	170 total yards, 1 TD
5	Marshawn Lynch	Green Bay Packers	95 total yards, 2 TD
6	Eddie Lacy	Seattle Seahawks	80 total yards, 1 TD
7	Arian Foster	Washington Redskins	110 total yards, 2 TD
8	Doug Martin	Carolina Panthers	83 total yards, 1 TD
9	DeMarco Murray	San Francisco 49ers	110 total yards, 2 TD
10	Le'Veon Bell	Cleveland Browns	95 total yards
11	Zac Stacy	Minnesota Vikings	90 total yards
12	Alfred Morris	Houston Texans	125 total yards, 1 TD
13	Montee Ball	Indianapolis Colts	130 total yards, 2 TD
14	Giovani Bernard	Baltimore Ravens	140 total yards, 1 TD
15	Reggie Bush	New York Giants	100 total yards, 1 TD
16	Ben Tate	Pittsburgh Steelers	99 total yards
17	Ryan Mathews	Arizona Cardinals	75 total yards
18	C.J. Spiller	Chicago Bears	130 total yards, 2 TD
19	Frank Gore	Dallas Cowboys	105 total yards, 1 TD
20	Andre Ellington	San Diego Chargers	80 total yards
21	Toby Gerhart	Philadelphia Eagles	75 total yards
22	Rashad Jennings	Detroit Lions	110 total yards, 1 TD
23	Trent Richardson	Denver Broncos	70 total yards
24	Chris Johnson	Oakland Raiders	75 total yards
25	Joique Bell	New York Giants	40 total yards, 1 TD

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Sleeper: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills

C.J. Spiller may not be a sleeper in the traditional sense, but he’s not exactly a name you expect to completely go off on a consistent basis.

You can trust him in Week 1, though. The Chicago Bears defense finished dead last in opposing rushing yards allowed last year and will likely still be going through some growing pains early in the season. 

Sure, they added Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston up front, but it’s difficult to forget running backs gashing the defensive every week last year. Spiller can also get involved in the passing game on screens if the Bills fall behind.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Calvin Johnson	New York Giants	140 yards, 1 TD
2	Demaryius Thomas	Indianapolis Colts	130 yards, 2 TD
3	A.J. Green	Baltimore Ravens	98 yards, 1 TD
4	Dez Bryant	San Francisco 49ers	115 yards, 2 TD
5	Brandon Marshall	Buffalo Bills	85 yards, 1 TD
6	Julio Jones	New Orleans Saints	135 yards, 1 TD
7	Jordy Nelson	Seattle Seahawks	65 yards
8	Alshon Jeffery	Buffalo Bills	100 yards, 1 TD
9	Antonio Brown	Cleveland Browns	87 yards, 1 TD
10	Randall Cobb	Seattle Seahawks	70 yards
11	Andre Johnson	Washington Redskins	71 yards, 1 TD
12	Vincent Jackson	Carolina Panthers	100 yards
13	Larry Fitzgerald	San Diego Chargers	75 yards
14	Pierre Garcon	Houston Texans	55 yards
15	Keenan Allen	Arizona Cardinals	85 yards, 1 TD
16	Victor Cruz	Detroit Lions	110 yards, 1 TD
17	Roddy White	New Orleans Saints	60 yards
18	DeSean Jackson	Houston Texans	80 yards
19	Percy Harvin	Green Bay Packers	50 yards
20	Michael Crabtree	Dallas Cowboys	110 yards, 1 TD
21	Torrey Smith	Cincinnati Bengals	75 yards, 1 TD
22	Michael Floyd	San Diego Chargers	65 yards
23	Cordarrelle Patterson	St. Louis Rams	105 yards, 1 TD
24	Julian Edelman	Miami Dolphins	75 yards, 1 TD
25	Jeremy Maclin	Jacksonville Jaguars	85 yards, 1 TD

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Sleeper: Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton has to throw to someone this year in Carolina, which means you could land a potential No. 1 option in an offense late in your draft or for cheap in auction formats.

Kelvin Benjamin won a national title at Florida State and is more than capable of becoming an elite red-zone target in the NFL. He jumps up and gets the ball at its highest point and should score a number of touchdowns because of that ability.

Any fantasy player knows touchdowns are the key to victory. 

Even the NFL pointed out that Benjamin is a top-notch rookie in fantasy football:

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Jimmy Graham	Atlanta Falcons	120 yards, 1 TD
2	Julius Thomas	Indianapolis Colts	95 yards, 1 TD
3	Rob Gronkowski	Miami Dolphins	80 yards, 2 TD
4	Vernon Davis	Dallas Cowboys	75 yards
5	Jason Witten	San Francisco 49ers	60 yards, 1 TD
6	Jordan Cameron	Pittsburgh Steelers	90 yards, 1 TD
7	Greg Olsen	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	55 yards
8	Dennis Pitta	Cincinnati Bengals	40 yards
9	Kyle Rudolph	St. Louis Rams	70 yards
10	Jordan Reed	Houston Texans	55 yards

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Sleepers: Kyle Rudolph

We can’t all have Jimmy Graham at tight end, so keeping an eye out for sleepers is important.

Opponents should stack the box against the Minnesota Vikings all season to stop Adrian Peterson, so the passing game should be open for Matt Cassel and his weapons. However, the St. Louis Rams are loaded along the defensive front and will likely blitz Cassel throughout the Week 1 contest.

That means he will need a security blanket at tight end, which is where Kyle Rudolph should step up. He won’t score three touchdowns a game and make dynamic athletic moves like Graham, but he will be consistent every week in an offense that needs reliable options. 

He is definitely worth a look in Week 1.

Kickers

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Stephen Gostkowski	Miami Dolphins	2 FG, 5 XP
2	Justin Tucker	Cincinnati Bengals	3 FG, 2 XP
3	Mason Crosby	Seattle Seahawks	2 FG, 3 XP
4	Steven Hauschka	Green Bay Packers	1 FG, 3 XP
5	Phil Dawson	Dallas Cowboys	1 FG, 4 XP
6	Nick Novak	Arizona Cardinals	2 FG, 2 XP
7	Adam Vinatieri	Denver Broncos	3 FG, 2 XP
8	Blair Walsh	St. Louis Rams	1 FG (50+), 2 XP
9	Dan Bailey	San Francisco 49ers	5 XP
10	Nick Folk	Oakland Raiders	1 FG, 1 XP

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Sleeper: Robbie Gould

Let’s not overthink things here.

The more the offense scores, the more points your fantasy kicker will score as well. We already talked about the Bears potent offense, which means Robbie Gould will have plenty of opportunities to rack up easy points. 

Yes, getting in the end zone too often takes field goals off the board, but you need an offense that consistently gets in scoring position. Chicago certainly will.

Defenses

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projections
1	Seattle Seahawks	Green Bay Packers	24 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 INT
2	Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21 points allowed, 5 sacks
3	San Francisco 49ers	Dallas Cowboys	35 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INT
4	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	23 points allowed, 1 sack, 2 INT
5	Cincinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	23 points allowed, 3 sacks
6	St. Louis Rams	Minnesota Vikings	17 points allowed, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD
7	Arizona Cardinals	San Diego Chargers	20 points allowed, 1 sack
8	Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans	14 points allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INT
9	New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	21 points allowed, 1 sack
10	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INT

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Sleeper: Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns were a top-10 defense against the pass last year, have Joe Haden anchoring the unit as one of the NFL’s elite corners and added a number of key pieces on the defensive side of the ball.

Rookie Justin Gilbert and safety Donte Whitner will help against the pass, and newcomer Karlos Dansby makes the linebacking corps much more stout. As for Gilbert, he discussed his learning curve, via Lindsay H. Jones of USA Today: “I just soak it all in, not getting emotional about anything that’s being thrown my way. Any information that is being told to me is something positive, most of the time. I’m just trying to take in the moment.” 

Fantasy owners certainly hope Gilbert uses that information to develop into an elite corner across from Haden.

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