2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Rankings, Sleepers to Avoid and More

We're going to go a bit negative on this article, folks. No, I'm not going to start complaining about how hard my life is (it isn't) or why the world is falling apart (it isn't) or start bemoaning "the kids these days" (they aren't any different from past generations; they just have better technology).

No, I'm going to go negative on some players you might be really tempted to target as your sleepers this year. I'm going to go a bit negative on some bold strategies or players who could make you look like a genius but could also make you look like a fool. 

It won't be all negative, of course. There will be my rankings of the top 150 players, for starters. There are a few players below who I think could really blow up and a few draft strategies I think are worth the risk. But in general, well, you can just imagine me shaking my fist as I write this. 

Well, you can imagine me shaking my fist after I wrote it. I'm still working on typing while I shake my fist at the darn kids these days.

Mock Draft Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Position
1	LeSean McCoy	Philadelphia Eagles	RB
2	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	RB
3	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs	RB
4	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	RB
5	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	RB
6	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans Saints	TE
7	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	WR
8	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	QB
9	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks	RB
10	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	QB
11	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers	QB
12	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos	WR
13	Doug Martin	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR
14	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals	WR
15	Arian Foster	Houston Texans	RB
16	Zac Stacy	St. Louis Rams	RB
17	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys	WR
18	Brandon Marshall	Chicago Bears	WR
19	DeMarco Murray	Dallas Cowboys	RB
20	Alfred Morris	Washington	RB
21	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons	WR
22	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions	QB
23	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	QB
24	Le'Veon Bell	Pittsburgh Steelers	RB
25	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers	WR
26	Montee Ball	Denver Broncos	RB
27	Randall Cobb	Green Bay Packers	WR
28	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers	WR
29	Julius Thomas	Denver Broncos	TE
30	Alshon Jeffery	Chicago Bears	WR
31	Andre Ellington	Arizona Cardinals	RB
32	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	TE
33	Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	WR
34	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR
35	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals	RB
36	Victor Cruz	New York Giants	WR
37	Reggie Bush	Detroit Lions	RB
38	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	QB
39	Toby Gerhart	Jacksonville Jaguars	RB
40	Keenan Allen	San Diego Chargers	WR
41	Ryan Mathews	San Diego Chargers	RB
42	Vernon Davis	San Francisco 49ers	TE
43	Wes Welker	Denver Broncos	WR
44	C.J. Spiller	Buffalo Bills	RB
45	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	RB
46	Larry Fitzgerald	Arizona Cardinals	WR
47	Ray Rice	Baltimore Ravens	RB
48	Rashad Jennings	New York Giants	RB
49	DeSean Jackson	Washington	WR
50	Pierre Garcon	Washington	WR
51	Ben Tate	Houston Texans	RB
52	Torrey Smith	Baltimore Ravens	WR
53	Trent Richardson	Indianapolis Colts	RB
54	Jeremy Maclin	Philadelphia Eagles	WR
55	Michael Floyd	Arizona Cardinals	WR
56	Robert Griffin III	Washington	QB
57	Nick Foles	Philadelphia Eagles	QB
58	Bishop Sankey	Tennessee Titans	RB
59	Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	WR
60	Michael Crabtree	San Francisco 49ers	WR
61	T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis Colts	WR
62	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys	TE
63	Kendall Wright	Tennessee Titans	WR
64	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	RB
65	Percy Harvin	Seattle Seahawks	WR
66	Emmanuel Sanders	Denver Broncos	WR
67	Joique Bell	Detroit Lions	RB
68	Chris Johnson	New York Jets	RB
69	Cordarrelle Patterson	Minnesota Vikings	WR
70	Shane Vereen	New England Patriots	RB
71	Marques Colston	New Orleans Saints	WR
72	Eric Decker	New York Jets	WR
73	Terrance Williams	Dallas Cowboys	WR
74	Jordan Cameron	Cleveland Browns	TE
75	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons	QB
76	Golden Tate	Detroit Lions	WR
77	Julian Edelman	New England Patriots	WR
78	Reggie Wayne	Indianapolis Colts	WR
79	Stevan Ridley	New England Patriots	RB
80	Sammy Watkins	Buffalo Bills	WR
81	Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco 49ers	QB
82	Chris Johnson	New York Jets	RB
83	Mike Wallace	Miami Dolphins	WR
84	Cecil Shorts	Jacksonville Jaguars	WR
85	Lamar Miller	Miami Dolphins	RB
86	Fred Jackson	Buffalo Bills	RB
87	Steven Jackson	Atlanta Falcons	RB
88	Anquan Boldin	San Francisco 49ers	WR
89	Pierre Thomas	New Orleans Saints	RB
90	DeAndre Hopkins	Houston Texans	WR
91	Darren McFadden	Oakland Raiders	RB
92	Maurice Jones-Drew	Oakland Raiders	RB
93	Darren Sproles	Philadelphia Eagles	RB
94	DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	RB
95	Knowshon Moreno	Miami Dolphins	RB
96	Riley Cooper	Philadelphia Eagles	WR
97	Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks	QB
98	Khiry Robinson	New Orleans Saints	RB
99	Chris Ivory	New York Jets	RB
100	Danny Woodhead	San Diego Chargers	RB
101	Mark Ingram	New Orleans Saints
102	Danny Amendola	New England Patriots	RB
103	Seattle D/ST	-	-
104	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers	TE
105	Jordan Reed	Washington	TE
106	Dennis Pitta	Baltimore Ravens	TE
107	Tom Brady	New England Patriots	QB
108	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys	QB
109	Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	QB
110	Jay Cutler	Chicago Bears	QB
111	LeGarrette Blount	Pittsburgh Steelers	RB
112	Hakeem Nicks	Indianapolis Colts	WR
113	Jeremy Hill	Cincinnati Bengals	RB
114	Rueben Randle	New York Giants	WR
115	Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	WR
116	Steve Smith	Baltimore Ravens	WR
117	Bernard Pierce	Baltimore Ravens	RB
118	Carlos Hyde	San Francisco 49ers	RB
119	Greg Jennings	Minnesota Vikings	WR
120	Shonn Greene	Tennessee Titans	RB
121	Mike Evans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR
122	Tavon Austin	St. Louis Rams	WR
123	Terrance West	Cleveland Browns	RB
124	Justin Hunter	Tennessee Titans	WR
125	Devonta Freeman	Atlanta Falcons	RB
126	Kelvin Benjamin	Carolina Panthers	WR
127	Brandin Cooks	New Orleans Saints	WR
128	Carolina Panthers D/ST	-	-
129	San Francisco 49ers D/ST	-	-
130	Denver Broncos D/ST	--	-
131	Arizona Cardinals D/ST	-	-
132	Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	-	-
133	James Starks	Green Bay Packers	RB
134	Andy Dalton	Cincinnati Bengals	QB
135	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	QB
136	St. Louis Rams D/ST	-	-
137	Knile Davis	Kansas City Chiefs	RB
138	Andre Williams	New York Giants	RB
139	Jarrett Boykin	Green Bay Packers	WR
140	Eli Manning	New York Giants	QB
141	Markus Wheaton	Pittsburgh Steelers	WR
142	Kyle Rudolph	Minnesota Vikings	TE
143	Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	-	-
144	New England Patriots D/ST	-	-
145	James Jones	Oakland Raiders	WR
146	Jordan Todman	Jacksonville Jaguars	RB
147	Martellus Bennett	Chicago Bears	TE
148	Charles Clay	Miami Dolphins	TE
149	Jonathan Grimes	Houston Texans	RB
150	Zach Ertz	Philadelphia Eagles	TE

Sleepers to Avoid

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

I'm not one of those people who is going to recommend waiting for a tight end and then selecting Kyle Rudolph. I'm not buying him, sorry.

For starters, I don't trust a player whose fantasy value is solely tied to touchdowns. It's too risky. In 2012, he had nine touchdowns, sure, but he had just 493 receiving yards. That meant he only had fantasy value in weeks he scored.

Before his season ended to injury last year, he had three weeks with nine fantasy points or more, and all of them came in weeks he scored a touchdown. Put another way, 34 of his fantasy points came in the three weeks he scored, while in the other five weeks he put up a meager 11 points.

Sorry, but I'm not interested in riding that roller coaster—certainly not when I can nab Jordan Reed, Dennis Pitta or Greg Olsen a round or two earlier. Just look at Olsen—he had three weeks of seven or more fantasy points without scoring a touchdown and five weeks with at least five fantasy points without a score. 

In total, nine times last year Olsen scored seven or more fantasy points. I'll take that consistency any day of the week over a one-trick pony like Rudolph. 

I truly believe Sammy Watkins is going way too high in drafts (which I wrote about in more depth here). Rookie wide receivers are always risky, as the transition between the college and pro game offers quite the steep learning curve. 

But the main reason I don't trust Watkins is that I don't trust his starting quarterback, EJ Manuel, or the Buffalo game plan.

Let's start with Manuel. Or more accurately, let's allow Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly to express his doubts about Manuel, per Mike Rodak of ESPN.com:

"

'To be honest, I'm not happy with any of them. I would love to see EJ come on,' Kelly said. 'He's a great guy. He's a great leader. I've heard him to speak to the team; I've heard him speak to the receivers before they take the field. His leadership is there. Everything is there.

'But I have not yet seen what we all want to see. And I'm sure he feels the same way. It just hasn't happened, and hopefully that's just because of the preseason.'

Kelly said the Bills' success this season will hinge on Manuel's performance.

'I'm pulling for him, and I'll continue to pull for him,' Kelly said. 'But that is a position without a doubt that is going to determine how the Buffalo Bills do this year. We have a good defense, great receivers, good running backs. It's up to EJ. He'll take us as far as he can, and I just hope he starts playing better.'

"

As per the Buffalo game plan, well, you need look no further than how the team utilizes exciting talent C.J. Spiller to get an idea of the "unique" approach the Bills might have for Watkins. Time and time again, Spiller is sent crashing into the tackle box, which doesn't play to his skill set. He should be utilized on the edge or put into space, and yet the Bills rarely craft a plan of attack around his skill set.

Will the same happen with Watkins? I fear it might.

Finally, I'm seeing a lot of people drafting Jay Cutler over quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. Um, why?

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Yes, I know he has awesome weapons to work with and the quarterback whisperer in coach Marc Trestman. But he's also an injury-prone player who struggles with turning the ball over. Could he blow up this year?

Absolutely. 

Would I risk making him my QB1 without taking a player like Romo or Rivers right behind him in my draft?

Absolutely not. Cutler simply hasn't proved in his career that he's worth trusting completely to be a consistent fantasy option.

Of course, not everyone agrees with me, like Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports:

He can have Cutler—I want someone a bit safer to be my QB1.

Targets for the Boldest of Owners

John Konstantaras/Getty Images

We can start this section by listing the veteran running backs who for a variety of reasons—they've lost a step, they're injury-prone, they are in a running-back-by-committee situation, etc.—are risky players who might produce and can be had for a decent value but might also flop.

These players include:

• Chris Johnson, New York Jets
• Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
• Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons
• Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

Some people might lump Frank Gore into this group, but he's consistently produced enough over the years that I think you can still justify selecting him. Yes, he could fall off the cliff this year, but wouldn't you rather take the chance on that as opposed to risking that any of the above players will be worthy RB2s?

If I can avoid the above players, I'm going to, though if a guy like Jackson is your RB4, you're good. 

Here's a player I think you need to be bold to select but one who could actually be a shock performer this season—Jake Locker. 

Yes, I know he has a hard time staying healthy. Yes, I know accuracy isn't a word he's familiar with. Yes, I know the Tennessee offense doesn't exactly make the network executives stand up and shout in excitement for the rush of ratings when they broadcast a Titans game.

But...Locker appeared in seven games last year. In three of them, he had very strong performances for fantasy owners in standard-scoring leagues (18 or more fantasy points). One contest was decent (14 points). One contest was a "disappointing but better than nothing" showing (10 points). And two were absolute duds (five points or less).

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Locker has a few things going for him. He has a big arm and enough athleticism to get out of the pocket and make plays. He has a reliable receiver (Kendall Wright), a young receiver with big-play potential (Justin Hunter) and a quick player who can make plays out of the backfield in the passing game (Dexter McCluster).

If he can stay healthy and avoid turning the ball over at an Eli Manning-like clip, he could have a breakout season for fantasy owners. You aren't drafting him to be your starter, obviously, and he's probably too risky as your QB2 if you wait until later in the draft to select your QB1. 

But if you nab a pretty safe starter, you can roll the dice on Locker. Who knows—maybe he indeed breaks out and, shazam, you have yourself some nice trade bait for later in the season.

Yes, I just typed the word shazam. 

I think you need to be pretty bold if you are going with the RB/RB strategy in the first two rounds this year, as many people are. That strategy means you are likely going to have to pick at least one player from a group with plenty of potential to either hit it big or bust:

• Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Arian Foster, Houston Texans
• Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams
• Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
• Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
• Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
• Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

Keep in mind that I omitted Alfred Morris from this list because I think he's pretty safe, but his upside is limited compared to the more appealing players above. So if you end the first two rounds with Eddie Lacy and Morris, for example, I think you're pretty safe with those picks. 

On the other hand, if you end the first two rounds with Foster and Ball, I think you have two players with huge potential but also major downsides. Foster is one injury away from potentially retiring. Seriously. Ball has never consistently proved he can be a top fantasy back. But a healthy Foster is an RB1, and Denver's offense made Knowshon Moreno, of all people, a fantasy stud last year, so you can see the upside in Ball.

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

I think the RB/RB strategy this year is really bold because there are so many question marks at running back. If you nail your picks, it's a great approach. But you are taking a major risk by doing so.

Here are a few other things only the boldest among us should risk:

• Taking offensive players from the New Orleans Saints not named Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham or Marques Colston.
• Taking a running back from the New England Patriots or Carolina Panthers.
• Assuming Cutler will be a consistent QB1 this year. 
• Drafting Josh Gordon before his suspension is announced. This could be the pick of the draft if his suspension is either short or he isn't suspended at all. It's a wasted pick if he's done for the year, however. 
• Assuming Ben Tate can stay healthy. If he can, boy, he could have a big year. But when has he ever stayed healthy?

How bold are you feeling?

Have fantasy questions? Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer them and make some corny jokes, too. It's more fun than having Shaun Hill as your starting quarterback.