Kentucky Derby Favorites: Projecting How Top Horses Will Finish

This year's Kentucky Derby has turned into more of a story about who isn't running than who actually is. One by one, the top horses of the crop have fallen to the sidelines with injuries. Just Thursday morning, another highly regarded contender, Hoppertunity, was knocked out of the big race with a foot bruise, per trainer Bob Baffert (h/t Paulick Report).

Handicapping a field as large as the Kentucky Derby is a daunting task. With 20 horses, anything can happen—and the unexpected often does. California Chrome has been installed as the heavy favorite at 5-2 and because of that, many other top contenders are at generous double-digit odds. 

Here is a look at some of the top contenders along with their morning-line odds heading toward this Saturday's 140th Kentucky Derby and how the race may shake up for them. 

8. Tapiture

Danny Johnston/Associated Press

Odds: 12-1

Projected Finish: Eighth

Tapiture was one of the most promising horses on the Derby trail early in the season. He lost a bit of luster after a flat performance in the Arkansas Derby with a fourth-place finish and no apparent excuses. 

The upside is that he is well-proven at Churchill Downs and has an advantage over several rivals trying the course for the first time. He has shown he can be versatile and effective on or off the pace, but seems at this point to be a cut below the top horses.

7. Danza

Danny Johnston/Associated Press

Odds: 8-1

Projected Finish: Seventh

One of four horses coming out for Todd Pletcher, Danza will try to prove his Arkansas Derby upset at 41-1 was not a fluke performance. While the inexperienced colt has done little wrong in only four starts, he lacks the foundation necessary to handle the likely adversity he will face in a full field of 20.

His jockey, "Jersey Joe" Bravo, is one of the most likable and popular jockeys in the sport, and while he is not as well known on racing's biggest stage as Gary Stevens or Mike Smith, he is capable of holding his own with the big boys. 

6. Candy Boy

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Odds: 15-1

Projected Finish: Sixth

Candy Boy was last seen finishing third behind the heavily favored California Chrome and the unlucky Hoppertunity in the Santa Anita Derby. If you liked one or both of those West Coast contenders, then it makes sense to include Candy Boy in the mix as well.

His lone stakes win came two starts back in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and while it was a good effort, he defeated a suspect field in Chitu and Midnight Hawk. His greatest strengths come from his stamina-rich pedigree and the masterful Gary Stevens, who will be aboard and give him every opportunity to succeed.

5. Intense Holiday

Odds: 8-1 

Projected Finish: Fifth

Intense Holiday has been flying mostly under the radar, but figures to be the strongest representative from the Todd Pletcher barn. He will join three of his stablemates to try to give the powerhouse trainer his second Kentucky Derby victory.

This colt has been quietly consistent throughout his prep races, and of the top contenders he was facing the best competition. While his last race was not visually pleasing as he was crossfiring in the stretch and nearly put himself through the inside rail, he does have ability and plenty of stamina. If jockey John Velazquez can keep that bad habit under control and keep him on the correct leads, he stands a big chance.

4. Wicked Strong

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Odds: 6-1

Projected Finish: Fourth 

Wicked Strong is the sentimental favorite, and while he does have that in his corner, he has some real talent as well. He was dealt an unfortunate hand at the post-position draw on Wednesday when he wound up outside in the field of 20, but some of his connections opted for optimism.

His jockey, Rajiv Maragh, according to a tweet from the Daily Racing Form's Dave Grening, reportedly texted trainer Jimmy Jerkens "perfect" after the post draw.

Despite his talent, this colt is a bit of a loose cannon. He can get hot in the post parade and has been erratic in the stretch in several of his races. He will need to be a consummate professional on Derby Day to overcome that post draw and get the job done.

3. Ride on Curlin

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Odds: 15-1

Projected Finish: Third

Ride on Curlin may be one of the more interesting horses in the race. He may not at first glance have the strongest resume for a Kentucky Derby winner as he has never won a stakes race or won going past six furlongs, but he is by no means a sprinter.

He shares the same sire as 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice and has an impeccable female family. He has been holding his own against respectable company all year and is the kind of horse that will be picking up the pieces at the end if not making a serious bid for top honors.

He also will have Calvin Borel aboard, which will certainly drive his odds down. The three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey is always a popular wager on Derby Day.

2. Samraat

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Odds: 15-1

Projected Finish: Second

Samraat is reminiscent of another top-quality New York-bred horse from over a decade ago. It is difficult to not compare him to Funny Cide, the unlikely near-winner of the Triple Crown in 2003. Both dominated restricted stakes company before finishing second in the Wood Memorial. The gut check that Funny Cide got in his final prep set him up perfectly to turn the tables on the regally bred Empire Maker in the Derby.

Can Samraat do the same to Wicked Strong?

Though Samraat may have some underlying distance limitations that are exacerbated by his resistance to switch leads in the stretch, he has proven one thing that will go a long way—he has a big heart. 

1. California Chrome

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Odds: 5-2

Projected Finish: First

California Chrome has the distinction of being the only horse in the Kentucky Derby who comes into this race blemish-free on the year. While that is not to say he is without flaws and question marks, he is strictly the one to beat.

With the advantageous draw of the No. 5 post, he has history on his side. Some of the most memorable Kentucky Derby winners in recent memory—Silver Charm, Funny Cide and War Emblem—broke from that post on their way to wearing the blanket of roses.

He is a big, slightly awkward colt, and with horses on either side of him that are sharp out of the gate, he needs to break well. His race will be won or lost three strides out of the gate.