NBA Draft 2014: Analyzing the Draft's Most Polarizing Prospects

This year’s edition of the NBA draft is chock-full of top-tier talent, but there are several prospects who have elicited controversy among draft analysts.

There’s little disagreement that players like Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker have the ability to become big NBA stars, but others have received much more mixed reviews.

Some, like UCLA’s Zach LaVine, have been downgraded for coming out too early. Others, like Oklahoma State’s Marcus Smart, have lost favor for staying in school too long.

All in all, these players will still likely get drafted early, but not all scouts seem to agree on their potential.

Marcus Smart

Orlin Wagner

Few players in college basketball have engendered more controversy than Marcus Smart.

Smart surprised everyone when he decided to stay with the Cowboys for an extra season, and his uneven play in his sophomore year has observers wavering on his potential. 

He improved statistically in his second year with the team—his points per game jumped from 15.4 to 18.0, his field-goal percentage went up to 42 percent from 40, and he reduced his turnovers from 3.4 to 2.6.

However, his suspension for pushing a fan had people questioning his maturity, and all of a sudden, he’s not the surefire lottery pick everyone thought he’d be.

This all makes him a tricky prospect to evaluate, as ESPN’s Chad Ford notes (subscription required).

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Smart isn't a prototypical point guard. He doesn't always see the floor as well as he should, can get too caught up on finding his own shot, and has a jumper that borderlines on being broken. There is a pretty big split among NBA scouts and GMs about Smart's potential because of those weaknesses. Not everyone is on board with him being a lottery pick.

But his physical tools (he's incredibly strong, physical and has great size for his position), his motor (he plays as hard as anyone in college basketball), his toughness and his leadership capabilities are all off the charts. Smart can bend the game to his will on occasions, and for teams looking for a true leader, he has all the makings of a great one.

His draft ceiling will ultimately depend on how much he improves his jump shot and playmaking skills. He's such a hard worker and so dedicated to the game that most NBA scouts believe he's going to fix these deficiencies with time. Expect him to go somewhere between No. 6 and 10 on draft night.

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More than the incident with the fan, Smart’s shooting has to be considered a major problem.

He might’ve improved his shooting slightly from his freshman season, but his three-point shooting in particular still remains very subpar—he was attempting more than five three-pointers a game and making just 29.9 percent of them.

That’s a problem for a player who wants to play point guard in the NBA, a league increasingly reliant on outside shooting from its guards.

Smart’s strength and size will likely keep him in the lottery, but there’s no doubt that his shooting and perceived “attitude problems” will hurt him.

Zach LaVine

Julie Jacobson

By all accounts, Zach LaVine is the type of player scouts drool over.

As a 6’5” guard with shooting touch, LaVine could be awfully attractive for a lot of teams.

However, after spending just one season with the Bruins as a bench player, there’s real concern out there about his NBA readiness.

He did average 9.4 points and 2.5 rebounds while playing 22.4 minutes per game, and his 37.5 percent rate from three-point range has to be a little tantalizing for someone of his size.

 But, as Ford notes (subscription required), he’s still a complicated puzzle to solve:

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NBA scouts love big, athletic point guards who can shoot the rock (who doesn't?) and LaVine has all of that -- explosive leaping ability, a tight handle and deep range on his jumper -- in spades.

However, his production slowed down significantly as the season progressed into Pac-12 play, and his draft stock has fallen as scouts question how ready he is for the NBA. LaVine desperately needs to add strength, and his questionable shot selection raises issues. Some scouts are also questioning whether he's a true point guard. He looked like one in high school, but he wasn't given that responsibility at UCLA this season. He's obviously much more valuable to teams as a point guard than an average-sized 2-guard.

Nevertheless, expect his stock to continue to rise now that he's in the draft. Scouts want to love him and see him as one of the five or six players in the draft with the most long-term upside. He should look great in workouts; he will add strength and, given his high ceiling and age, I think you could see people gambling on him as high as the late lottery.

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Others aren’t quite as bullish on LaVine’s prospects. In fact, many have openly derided his decision to even enter the draft.

He never seemed to get a long with Steve Alford, and analysts like Jeff Goodman of ESPN openly question his decision to declare.

But it seems clear that LaVine’s relationship with Alford was untenable. 

“He’s done a great job getting the players to compete,” Marvin Carter, LaVine’s godfather, told the Los Angeles Daily News’ Jack Wang about Alford. “I just wish Zach had more of a chance to compete.”

LaVine might not be entirely seasoned, but it seems as if his advisers were heavily pushing him toward turning pro.

“Every year he spends at UCLA after this one is a waste,” Carter told Wang. “It really is.”

Some, like Sports Illustrated’s Seth Davis, found big flaws with that thinking.

There are always prospects who seem to shoot up draft boards despite some thinking they’re not ready for the NBA, and LaVine seems like he’ll be one of them. 

Other outlets, like Draft Express, have LaVine just barely in the first round, but if Ford is correct, he could easily rise higher. 

He may not reach the heights of a guy like Smart, but he certainly has the physical tools to approach the lottery. 

Either way, some might dislike prospects like LaVine and Smart, but it sure seems as if each will get his name called pretty early on in the draft.