How Bayern Munich Need to Adjust to Beat Manchester United in the Second Leg

Pep Guardiola and Bayern Munich had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford in the first leg of their quarterfinal encounter with Manchester United.

Although Guardiola voiced his satisfaction with the result after the game, it was far from Bayern’s best performance this season and put United in a good position going into the second leg in Munich.

On top of that, Bayern will be without key players in Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez, who are both suspended, and Thiago, who will still be sidelined through injury.

Guardiola will not only have to compensate for those absences but get his side to play to their potential or face what would be surely deemed an unacceptable elimination from the competition.

On the surface, Bayern dominated the game in Manchester. They had upwards of 70 percent possession for much of the game and at times seemed to be the only side playing the game.

Yet there was a certain finality and precision lacking in their game that has usually been so present this season. For a good hour the game was reminiscent of Bayern’s final against Chelsea in 2012, all the possession in the world but next to nothing to show for it.

Part of that was of course down to United’s supreme defensive organization and collective efforts. David Moyes’ side packed the box and put 10 men behind the ball. Their strategy to sit and wait to catch Bayern on the break worked well and even nearly won them the game.

But part of Bayern were also uncharacteristically poor in the final third. Passes went astray and Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben and Thomas Mueller struggled to find each other. Until his goal, Bastian Schweinsteiger rarely made his ghost runs into the box and Toni Kroos was hesitant to shoot.

There was a degree of conservatism about Bayern’s play that underlied their disappointing performance. One could argue that Bayern have been even stronger away in Europe this season than at home, but that was anything but evident against United.

The absence of Thiago was a factor but at times it seemed as if Bayern were too comfortable in possession and avoided taking the risks necessary to break down United’s backline. More often than not, it was Ribery and Robben that took responsibility and tried to create chances on their own.

Overall Bayern struggled to get Mueller involved in the game and things only picked up when Mario Mandzukic was brought on. Mandzukic’s physical presence matched that of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic and gave their attack a focal point.

The Croatian striker has often made the difference for Bayern this season. Against a physical side like United, Bayern would have benefited from his presence from the start, and his cameo proved that he warrants a start in the second leg.

So the first big change Guardiola might want to make is starting Mandzukic up front instead of Mueller. Twenty-two goals in all competitions and several big performances in Europe over the last year-and-a-half have proven that Mandzukic is a big-game player. And it won’t get any bigger than the second leg.

With Martinez, Schweinsteiger and Thiago all out for the second leg, Kroos and Lahm are sure to start in midfield. Guardiola must also decide which of Mueller or Goetze get the nod. Mueller’s disappointing performance could shift things in Goetze’s favor but playing Mueller a little deeper might be exactly what they need.

In theory, Mueller’s unpredictable movement should have disrupted United’s backline and pulled defenders out of position, but they defended in such large numbers that he always had one or two players covering him.

If Mueller is allowed to play deeper he would have a better chance of influencing the game. He could provide the link-up with Robben, Ribery and the rest of the midfield that was so sorely lacking and run at defenders instead of playing ahead or in front of them.

Goetze, on the other hand, provides a more technical approach. Whereas Mueller’s movement and play is erratic, Goetze is more cerebral and concentrated and could have a bigger impact coming off the bench when United start fatiguing.

Goetze and Mueller have only started three games together in the competition so far this season, suggesting that Guardiola has used them largely interchangeably. Both starting in the second leg is highly unlikely so it could come down to which of the two would suit Bayern better.

It is highly unlikely that Moyes will alter his tactics much heading into the second leg. His strategy was reactive yet very effective. They will happily concede possession and wait to catch them on the break as they push numbers forward.

Bayern will control most of the game like they did in the first leg, but unlike the game in England, they will have to put pressure on United early. Their combination in the final third will have to improve, as will most importantly, how they defend in transition when United counter.  

The first leg result gives United a good boost heading to Munich, and it increases the pressure on Bayern, but Guardiola has proven he can adjust and click exactly when it is needed.