NCAA Tournament 2014 Bracket: Odds, Full Picks and Players to Watch
Many of us spend hours breaking down matchups, playing the odds, studying everything from kenpom.com to FiveThirtyEight Sports and, ultimately, throwing our hands up in the air and just hoping we're right.
But for all of the research, the tournament still comes down to one thing—players. It's players who decide these games, not some divine spreadsheet in the sky, and it's individual players who have the ability to decide any given game.
With that in mind, I've decided to focus on a few players from each region I think could have the biggest impact. Yes, you'll find odds and my full picks below, but I'd also like to put the focus for a moment on the individuals that have the ability to shake up the entire bracket.
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All Your Bracket Essentials
Odds
| Florida | 5/1 |
| Michigan State | 11/2 |
| Arizona | 8/1 |
| Louisville | 8/1 |
| Kansas | 10/1 |
| Wichita State | 15/1 |
| Syracuse | 18/1 |
| Duke | 18/1 |
| Virginia | 18/1 |
| Wisconsin | 20/1 |
| Michigan | 30/1 |
| Creighton | 35/1 |
| Villanova | 35/1 |
| Iowa State | 40/1 |
| UCLA | 45/1 |
| North Carolina | 50/1 |
| Kentucky | 50/1 |
| Oklahoma State | 60/1 |
| San Diego State | 65/1 |
| Ohio State | 65/1 |
| Oklahoma | 75/1 |
| Baylor | 75/1 |
| UConn | 80/1 |
| VCU | 90/1 |
| Cincinnati | 90/1 |
| Pittsburgh | 95/1 |
| Oregon | 100/1 |
| Tennessee | 115/1 |
| New Mexico | 115/1 |
| UMass | 125/1 |
| Iowa | 125/1 |
| Memphis | 125/1 |
| Gonzaga | 125/1 |
| Texas | 125/1 |
| Saint Louis | 125/1 |
| Providence | 225/1 |
| Stanford | 225/1 |
| Kansas State | 300/1 |
| St Joseph's | 350/1 |
| Nebraska | 450/1 |
| Dayton | 500/1 |
| BYU | 500/1 |
| Colorado | 500/1 |
| Xavier | 500/1 |
| Arizona State | 500/1 |
| George Washington | 500/1 |
| N.C. State | 900/1 |
| Harvard | 1000/1 |
| North Dakota State | 1000/1 |
| Field (Any Other Team) | 100/1 |
Play-in Games
Texas Southern over Cal Poly
Tennessee over Iowa
East Region
Round of 64
No. 1 Virginia over No. 16 Coastal Carolina
No. 8 Memphis over No. 9 George Washington
No. 5 Cincinnati over No. 12 Harvard
No. 4 Michigan State over No. 13 Delaware
No. 6 North Carolina over No. 11 Providence
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 North Carolina Central
No. 10 St. Joe's over No. 7 UConn
No. 2 Villanova over No. 15 Milwaukee
Round of 32
No. 1 Virginia over No. 8 Memphis
No. 4 Michigan State over No. 5 Cincy
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 6 North Carolina
No. 2 Villanova over No. 10 St. Joe's
Sweet 16
No. 4 Michigan State over No. 1 Virginia
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 2 Villanova
Elite Eight
No. 4 Michigan State over No. 3 Iowa State
Players to Watch
Perhaps no player has the chance to go all Kemba Walker on this region more than UConn's Shabazz Napier. The star guard led the Huskies in points (17.4), rebounds (5.9), assists (4.9) and steals (1.7) per game, making him arguably the most valuable player to his team in the entire tournament.
As you can see, I have St. Joe's beating UConn—I think the gritty Hawks will beat them up on the boards—but I could just as easily see Napier taking this team all the way to the Final Four. Yes, he's that good.
For Cincinnati, if Sean Kilpatrick isn't scoring, chances are the Bearcats aren't scoring. While Cincy is a big, physical, defensively sound team, scoring the rock isn't exactly their forte. To say they win ugly is an understatement.
Kilpatrick easily paced Cincy with 20.7 points per game (he also led them with 2.6 assists per contest). If he goes cold at any point, the Bearcats are in serious trouble.
And then there's Marcus Paige, North Carolina's solid point guard who led the team with 17.4 points and 4.3 assists per game. The Tar Heels are another team that could make a deep run in this region, but only if their star point guard leads the way.
South Region
Round of 64
No. 1 Florida over No. 16 Albany
No. 9 Pittsburgh over No. 8 Colorado
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 5 VCU
No. 4 UCLA over No. 13 Tulsa
No. 11 Dayton over No. 6 Ohio State
No. 3 Syracuse over No. 14 Western Michigan
No. 7 New Mexico over No. 10 Stanford
No. 2 Kansas over No. 15 Eastern Kentucky
Round of 32
No. 1 Florida over No. 9 Pittsburgh
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 4 UCLA
No. 3 Syracuse over No. 11 Dayton
No. 2 Kansas over No. 7 New Mexico
Sweet 16
No. 1 Florida over No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
No. 2 Kansas over No. 3 Syracuse
Elite Eight
No. 1 Florida over No. 2 Kansas
Players to Watch
Andrew Wiggins is certainly the most athletically gifted player in all of college basketball, but with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, he may also be the most important.
For much of this season Wiggins has been buried under his own hype, but in a day and age of me-first superstars, his unselfishness and calm demeanor is refreshing. Even his coach, Bill Self, initially thought he needed more intensity, but he quickly learned it would be unwise to change his young superstar.
From
"At times Self has tried to motivate him by trying to push the right buttons to make Wiggins a little angry in practice or games. But Wiggins could never stay angry. It's not his demeanor.
Self said he initially thought that the staff needed to change Wiggins. Coaches wanted him more "outwardly, visibly more energetic and passionate because he is a stone face on the court," Self said.
"That would have been the worst thing we could have ever done," Self said before the Big 12 tournament. "His demeanor has allowed him not to have highs and not to have lows. He has had a few highs, but his lows have not been low. His consistency, to me, has been most remarkable."
"
Oh, and he also averaged 17.4 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. He's learned how to dominate later in the year, but he also knows how to play team basketball and allow the game to come to him. The hype may have initially been too high, but Wiggins has proven why it existed in the first place.
Kyle Anderson doesn't have the hype of Wiggins, but the sophomore is one of the most well-rounded players in college basketball, averaging 14.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Few players have the ability to dominate every facet of a game quite like Anderson.
And then there's Tyler Ennis of Syracuse, who averages 12.7 points, 5.6 assists and 2.1 steals per game. The Orange limped down the stretch and aren't getting a ton of respect in many brackets, but behind Ennis they are certainly capable of making a run.
Midwest Region
Round of 64
No. 1 Wichita State over No. 16 Texas Southern
No. 8 Kentucky over No. 9 Kansas State
No. 12 NC State over No. 5 Saint Louis
No. 4 Louisville over No. 13 Manhattan
No. 11 Tennessee over No. 6 UMass
No. 3 Duke over No. 14 Mercer
No. 7 Texas over No. 10 Arizona State
No. 2 Michigan over No. 15 Wofford
Round of 32
No. 8 Kentucky over No. 1 Wichita State
No. 4 Louisville over No. 12 Xavier
No. 3 Duke over No. 11 Tennessee
No. 2 Michigan over No. 7 Texas
Sweet 16
No. 4 Louisville over No. 8 Kentucky
No. 2 Michigan over No. 3 Duke
Elite Eight
No. 4 Louisville over No. 2 Michigan
Players to Watch
This region is loaded with talented players, so let's just give a quick resume on the top guys below:
- Julius Randle: Led Kentucky with 15.0 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Likely top-five pick in this year's draft.
- T.J. Warren: Averaging a whopping 25.0 points per game for NC State, also snags 5.0 rebounds per contest. Justifiably named the ACC Player of the year.
- Russ Smith: One of the most explosive scorers in the country, averaging 18.3 points per game. Looking to make it back-to-back championships with Louisville.
- Jabari Parker: Likely a top-three pick in this year's draft if he goes pro. Led Duke with 19.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game.
- Nik Stauskas: Big Ten Player of the Year. Averaging 17.5 points per game, but makes his money on the perimeter, shooting 44.9 percent from beyond the arc.
West Region
Round of 64
No. 1 Arizona over No. 16 Weber State
No. 9 Oklahoma State over No. 8 Gonzaga
No. 5 Oklahoma over No. 12 North Dakota State
No. 4 San Diego State over No. 13 New Mexico State
No. 6 Baylor over No. 11 Nebraska
No. 3 Creighton over No. 14 Louisiana-Lafayette
No. 7 Oregon over No. 10 BYU
No. 2 Wisconsin over No. 15 American
Round of 32
No. 1 Arizona over No. 9 Oklahoma State
No. 4 San Diego State over No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 3 Creighton over No. 6 Baylor
No. 2 Wisconsin over No. 7 Oregon
Sweet 16
No. 1 Arizona over No. 4 San Diego State
No. 2 Wisconsin over No. 3 Creighton
Elite Eight
No. 1 Arizona over No. 2 Wisconsin
Players to Watch
Doug McDermott is the guy to watch here. All he did this year was average 26.9 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. He's pretty unbelievable, folks. Consider the following, from ESPN Stats and Information:
He's a sniper, make no mistake about it.
Aaron Gordon has been excellent for Arizona this season, averaging 12.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. The certain top-10 pick in this year's draft has the ability to lead the Wildcats all the way to the Final Four.
But he may have to contend with Marcus Smart to get there. Smart is the key man for Oklahoma State and is as well-rounded as they come, averaging 17.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. The Cowboys underachieved this year, but Smart has the goods to lead them on a deep tourney run.
Final Four and Title Game Predictions
No. 4 Michigan State over No. 1 Florida
No. 4 Louisville over No. 1. Arizona
No. 4 Louisville over No. 4 Michigan State
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