Fantasy Rankings: AFC West Running Backs in 2009

Just a few short years ago, the AFC West was home to the top two fantasy running backs in the game: LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson. Fast forward to 2009 and the landscape has certainly changed.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

Although Tomlinson is clearly on the downside of his career, he still ranks atop a weak class of runners in the AFC West. Ever since his MVP, 31-TD season in 2006, Tomlinson's numbers have steadily dropped while his injuries are on the rise. But our thinking is that his decreasing numbers are the result of Norv Turner's offensive running scheme more so than a deterioration of his skills.

While he'll definitely give up carries to Sproles in 2009, look for Tomlinson to break the 1,200-yard mark and put up double digit TDs.

2. Larry Johnson

Johnson, like the Chiefs in general, suffered through a miserable 2008 campaign. Yet he still managed nearly 900 yards and five TDs, although he missed four and a half games. This year there's a new coach (Todd Haley) at the helm, and he brings with him an offensive mindset from his days with the Arizona Cardinals.

While there were offseason rumors that Johnson might be shipped out of town, those appear to be dead now; so expect a strong rebound in 2009, which will also increase the trade value for the Chiefs. We like him to post similar numbers to Tomlinson.

3. Knowshon Moreno

With the loss of  Jay Cutler this offseason, the Broncos are poised to take a step back offensively in 2009, but they didn't invest the 12th overall pick in the draft on Moreno if they didn't plan to make him the primary ball carrier.  And with Orton most likely at the helm, McDaniels will need to protect him.

Look for Moreno to handle the rock at least 225-250 times and hit the thousand yard mark with at least eight TDs. He'll also be used as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

4. Darren McFadden

McFadden was largely a bust as a rookie because he was unable to stay on the field. But in the short time he played, he put his enormous skills on display and posted 500 yards and five TDs.

While it's still a crowded backfield with Fargas commanding over 200 carries and Michael Bush coming on strong towards the end of '08, the Raiders didn't use the No. 4 pick last year's NFL Draft to have him be a fill-in player. So look for McFadden to be given a long look as the No. 1 back and step up in year two. Nine hundred yards and between seven to nine TDs should be expected

5. Darren Sproles

Sproles did an amazing job last year filling in when Tomlinson was out. And because of that success, the Chargers were forced to franchise the 5'6" back and pay him like a starter.

And that means that he'll get at least 10-12 carries per game in '09, which will also help keep Tomlinson's body healthy. But Sproles can take it all the way on any occasion, so even though he'll probably only get 35-40 percent of the carries, he could put up big yardage and take a few long ones to the house, both on hand offs and as a receiver out of the backfield.

6. Michael Bush

While Justin Fargas has been a solid running back for the Raiders,  look for Bush to supplant him as one of the team's top two backs in 2009. His HUGE game in the season finale (vs. the Bucs) showed his rare combination of size and speed.

After amassing over 400 yards and three TDs on just 95 carries, look for Bush to jump closer to the 800-1,000 yard mark and be the primary back at the goal line.

Draft Tip

Tomlinson is still worthy of a 1st round pick, but it can't come earlier than pick No. 9. We think picks nine to 12 provide good value. Johnson will be available in round two and could have a big bounceback year as he looks to improve his trade value and work his way out of Kansas City. McFadden and Moreno will be available in round's three through five and Sproles would be a good flex option in round six to eight. Bush should be around in rounds nine through 11 and could turn into an excellent sleeper pick.