Chargers vs. Bengals: Preview and Prediction for AFC Wild-Card Battle

Wild Card Weekend's most lopsided matchup will be anything but that.

According to Covers, the Cincinnati Bengals will be seven-point favorites when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday afternoon, while the spreads of the other three battles are all less than a field goal. 

The wide spread isn't exactly surprising. Marvin Lewis' squad went 11-5 on the season but was an unstoppable 8-0 at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals also went into San Diego and beat the Chargers 17-10 in Week 13. 

But don't overlook Mike McCoy's team. The Bolts travel extremely well, having beaten the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos on the road, and they won four in a row to sneak into the postseason. 

Don't be fooled by the odds—this will be an evenly fought contest. 

Date: Sunday, Jan. 5, 2014

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET

Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio

TV: CBS

Odds: Cincinnati (-7), via Covers

Over/Under: 47, via Covers

Chargers' Key to Victory: Establish the Run Game

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When most people think of the Chargers offense, they tend to think of a heavy pass attack. But the Bolts have become far more balanced as of late, leaning on Ryan Mathews to great success.

In the final four weeks of the season—all wins—Mathews carried the ball 107 times (never less than 24 times in a single game) for 473 yards (4.42 yards per carry), culminating in a career-high 144 rushing yards and a season-high 58 after contact (per ESPN's research notes) against the Chiefs in Week 17.

He was quick to give credit to his offensive line, though, according to Chargers.com's Nick Toney.

"It feels good, but it wasn't just me," Mathews said. "I've said it a thousand times before; it's the big guys in the front.  My job is easy when you have guys in the front willing to risk their bodies week in and week out to give me five yards a play."

Over the current four-game span, the Chargers have controlled the ball for over 34 minutes and won the yardage battle in every contest. The running game not only makes them far more dangerous offensively, but it also keeps their inconsistent defense off the field.

Moreover, consistently breaking off four or five yards on the ground will help keep Cincy's elite pass rush at bay, allowing Philip Rivers to take some shots in the air. During the Bengals' Week 13 win, Rivers completed just 6.81 yards per pass (his second lowest mark on the season) and had only two completions of 20 yards or more.

Running the ball against the Bengals is possible but not easy. Even without star defensive tackle Geno Atkins, Cincy is allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (which is 15th-best in the NFL) on the season, but that number has risen to 4.9 while at home. 

Bengals' Key to Victory: Feed A.J. Green

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Who will show up on Sunday afternoon? Will it be the "good" Andy Dalton, who is capable of cutting up defenses when he gets into a rhythm? Or will it be the "bad" Andy Dalton, who tends to throw interceptions (at least two picks in five games this season) like it's his job?

An easy way to ensure that Dr. Jekyll makes an appearance rather than Mr. Hyde is to lean heavily on one of the best wide receivers in the game. 

In his third season, A.J. Green set career highs in targets (180), catches (98) and yards (1,426) and tied his top mark in touchdowns (11). He is also tied for first in the NFL with nine 40-plus-yard receptions and likely near the top in holy-expletive-how-did-he-just-do-that catches.

Green's a playmaker in every sense of the word, but against the Chargers, there is potential for him to completely take over. 

Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright—San Diego's starting cornerbacks—were both ranked in the bottom 10 of the Pro Football Focus rankings, via Rotoworld's Evan Silva. The Chargers could shift extra attention toward Green, opening up more space for dangerous weapons such as Giovani Bernard, Marvin Jones and Andrew Hawkins, or they could leave him in one-on-one and get burned.

Either way, Cincy has a major advantage so long as it keeps Dalton protected in the pocket. 

Prediction: San Diego 21, Cincinnati 24

San Diego's ability to run the ball and keep the Bengals' talented offense off the field is going to make this game much closer than people expect, but I can't pick against Cincinnati at home—even with the way the Chargers have played on the road.