Baltimore Orioles Draft Rumbles and Grumbles

Only eight days remain until the 2009 MLB First Year Player Draft. 

Just like it's been almost all year, Stephen Strasburg is still the no-doubt, No. 1 pick, and it's looking more like he could be sporting a Nationals uniform by this September, assuming he signs early, something that's never a given with Scott Boras representing him.

It also seems very likely that the Seattle Mariners, picking at No. 2, are locked on UNC first baseman Dustin Ackley, widely considered the best hitter in this year's draft. Ackley, who many expect to be turned into a centerfielder at the next level, is considered one of the best hitting prospects to come along this decade. 

After Ackley, there doesn't appear to be a wealth of hitting talent, so expect a big run on pitchers, possibly filling out eight of the first ten picks, and most of the top twenty as well.

That leaves the Padres on the clock at No. 3. Rumor has it they're looking at USC shortstop Grant Green, as well as prep outfielder Donovan Tate and college pitchers Kyle Gibson and Mike Minor.

Green has not played up to the high expectations he created in the Cape Cod League last summer, Tate commands a very high bonus and there are doubts about Gibson's stuff. That makes Minor the safest bet, but he doesn't have the potential talent of the other three. Quite the pickle for the Pads.

After the Padres pick, it's the Pirates turn at No. 4. Don't expect them to go after Tate and his predicted $6 million price tag after doing the same thing for Pedro Alvarez last year.

They'll most likely have their pick of Gibson and Minor as well as UNC righty Alex White, former Missouri righty Aaron Crow, as well as high-schoolers Zack Wheeler, Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, and Shelby Miller.

And finally we come to the Orioles at pick five. There is no doubt they would love Dustin Ackley, and he's probably No. 1 on their board, but he'll probably be gone. The No. 2 guy on their board will probably be whoever the Pirates pick, as both organizations are going after the same thing.

That leaves a probable pool of Kyle Gibson, Alex White, Donovan Tate, Aaron Crow, Tanner Scheppers, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Shelby Miller, Mike Leake, Chad Jenkins, Zack Wheeler, and Garrett Gould.

This is the part where every Oriole fan should get pretty excited, because it's pretty much a win-win-win-win-win situation. The pitching depth in this draft is insane, and there doesn't appear to be a big "bust" factor with any of these guys. 

The O's have shown no real tendency to tab high-school pitchers in the first round, but with their wealth of almost Major League ready talent (ie Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, etc) they are one of few teams that could actually afford to pick a high school hurler and let him develop at a more natural pace.

If they choose to go that way, they could take Tyler Matzek, widely considered the top lefty in the draft. 

Matzek features a 90-94 mph fastball with an easy delivery. He also throws a curveball, at 71-78 mph, a cutter-slider at 82-86, and an emerging changeup. All three major pitches are at least above average and a changeup would give him probably the best stuff of any of the prepsters.

At 6'3'' and 185, he has a little bit of projectability to his frame and his fastball could probably end up at 93-97 mph.

If they pass on Matzek, they could tab Shelby Miller, another intriguing prep pitcher. Miller has the hottest fastball of any high schooler, dialing it up to 98, but sitting more comfortably in the 93-96 mph range. He also throws a curve that could develop into a really good pitch, but beyond his fastball there isn't really that much.

The real knock on Miller is his command, which is a tick below average. If he can get his pitches under control he could be a top notch bullpen guy. If he can add another pitch, maybe a perfected changeup, he could be a frontline starter.

If Matzek is top lefty A, then Matthew Purke is top lefty B. Purke is very similar to Matzek and has been almost more dominating than him.

He too features a low-to-mid 90s fastball, and has two above average pitches to compliment it, a curve-slider mix that sits in the upper 70s-low 80s, and a rapidly improving changeup he throws with very good command.

Purke has often been described as lean and wiry, and almost everyone agrees he needs to add some more weight, and if he does he could give Matzek a run for his money. No doubt, these two will be compared to each other for years to come.

So say they want to go with a college arm, a more polished, more experienced one.

That list begins with Alex White. The junior from UNC has big game experience and has dominated at the college level, something none of the prepsters have done. After an up and down freshman year, White dominated as a sophomore, going 13-3 with a 2.83 in the tough ACC.

This year he hasn't been as dominant, but he is still assured a top 10 spot. He features a fastball that sits in the 89-95 range, an OK curveball, a plus slider, and an average changeup.

The word on him is that with some work on his windup and the development of his lesser pitches (curve and changeup) he could be one of the best to emerge from the 2009 draft.

If White isn't their guy, then one of the two Missouri guys is, Gibson or Crow. Crow went high last year, but didn't sign, and is still considered one of the best right-handers in the draft class. Gibson doesn't have the stuff that Crow has (ie excellent fastball), but he could wind up as the better pitcher. 

Gibson is a big boy, who of his own admission has struggled to put on the weight that would help him dial up his fastball a few more mph. At 6'6'' and 210, though, a low 90's fastball is nothing to sneeze at. In addition to the fastball, he has an above average slider and changeup, and has excellent command of all three pitches.

Crow lacks Gibson's size, but has shown in Indy League ball that he might be even better than he looked last year. The stuff is still there, which means his fastball (91-95 mph) looks crisp, his slider still looks filthy and is easily his best pitch, and his changeup has looked like a solid Major League pitch. Both guys are considered front of the rotation starters. 

Beyond these guys, there are still promising prospects in Garrett Gould, a prepster from Kansas who has been rocketing up draft charts, Zack Wheeler, a Georgia product who has a plus curveball in his arsenal, and Vanderbilt lefty Mike Minor, a simple guy with a simple name who features four average pitches.

And don't forget shortstop Grant Green could still be out there.

So the point is, the O's could go so many ways with the 5th pick, but one thing is sure, they are pretty much guaranteed to get a stud pitcher.