Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Analyzing the Latest Scenarios for Week 16

The NFL’s postseason dance card is starting to fill up.

One-third of the dozen playoff spots have now been filled, including half of the six invites in the AFC. The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, as well as the NFC’s Seattle Seahawks, will be playing football in January.

So what did we learn this week? There’s a lot to be said about momentum on a weekly basis when it comes to this game.

There’s also a lot to be said about jockeying for position at the top of the AFC. The Broncos opened the door for the New England Patriots and they failed to capitalize. And the Pats presented the Cincinnati Bengals with a golden opportunity and they came up short as well.

So here is the weekly look at the NFL’s playoff matchups as they stand at this moment

And continue to expect the unexpected.

On The Bubble

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On The Bubble

Listed below are the top teams in each conference that are on the outside looking in come playoff time. The number attached is their current seeding.

AFC

7. Miami Dolphins (8-6)

For the second time this season, Joe Philbin’s team is riding a three-game winning streak. This comes after holding on for a 24-20 victory over the visiting New England Patriots on Sunday. It also ensured for that for the first time since 2008, the Dolphins will not finish with a losing record. That season, Miami was 11-5 and AFC East champions, the team’s last playoff appearance.

Remaining Schedule: at Bills (5-9), vs. Jets (6-8)

8. San Diego Chargers (7-7)

Are we seeing yet another late-season surge by the unpredictable Chargers? Mike McCoy’s team went into Denver on Thursday night and handed Peyton Manning and Co. a stinging 27-20 loss. And while quarterback Philip Rivers continues to stand out, running back Ryan Mathews had another strong game. But will it be too little too late for this club when it comes to reaching the playoffs?

Remaining Schedule: vs. Raiders (4-10), vs. Chiefs (11-3)

NFC

7. Arizona Cardinals (9-5)

Bruce Arians continues to work his magic and has kept his Cardinals in the thick of the playoff race. Sunday’s win over the Tennessee Titans gave Arizona a perfect 4-0 mark versus the AFC South this season. They hope to fare better the next two weeks against their NFC West rivals.  

Remaining Schedule: at Seahawks (12-2), vs. 49ers (10-4)

8. Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

You have to give Mike McCarthy’s club the nod minus quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have followed up that Turkey Day disaster at Detroit with a pair of one-point wins over the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys, the latter featuring the greatest comeback (down 23 points) in Green Bay history.

And the Pack now sits just one-half game out of first place in the wild NFC North.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Steelers (6-8), at Bears (8-6)

9. Detroit Lions (7-7)

A week ago, the Detroit defense gave up 299 yards rushing in a snowy loss at Philadelphia. On Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens, Jim Schwartz’s club held the defending Super Bowl champions to 305 total yards and still found a way to lose, 18-16. That’s because the Lions have now coughed up the football a combined 18 times in their last five games, four of those resulting in losses.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Giants (5-9), at Vikings (4-9-1)

10. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

Can someone explain how Jerry Jones’ team owned a 26-3 halftime lead and wound up not only being outrushed by the Packers in terms of yards (150-134) but attempts (27-18) as well? It adds up to another mind-numbing loss for the Cowboys, who have now given up 385 points in 14 games this season.

Remaining Schedule: at Redskins (3-11), vs. Eagles (8-6)

AFC No. 1 Seed: Denver Broncos (11-3)

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Clinched playoff berth

Playoff Opponent: First-Round Bye

It’s not like you haven’t been warned.

The Denver Broncos may be on their way to setting an NFL record for points scored in a season, and quarterback Peyton Manning may set a record for touchdown passes in a season as well.

But John Fox’s club has also surrendered at least 20 points in 12 of their 14 games in 2013, the latest example coming in Thursday night’s 27-20 home loss to the San Diego Chargers.

Mike McCoy’s club controlled the ball for 38:49 of the contest and ran the ball 44 times for 177 yards on the evening. Meanwhile, the 20 points scored was a season low for Denver, which lost its first regular-season home game since 2011.

For what it’s worth, the Broncos have been held to fewer than 31 points in just three of their 14 games this season, and two of those came against the Chargers. That’s just an early warning in case those division rivals happen to meet for a third time in 2013.

Meanwhile, Denver has to feel a little fortunate that the New England Patriots fell to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. That means Fox and Co. hang onto the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

At least for now…

Remaining Schedule: at Texans (2-12), at Raiders (4-10)

AFC No. 2 Seed: New England Patriots (10-4)

Playoff Opponent: First-Round Bye

For the sixth straight week and eighth time in nine contests, the New England Patriots gave up at least 24 points. And for the second time in five weeks, Bill Belichick’s team lost on a late drive that resulted with a Tom Brady interception in the end zone.

But thanks to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ somewhat-surprising 30-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night, New England will retain its tenuous grasp on the second seed in the AFC for at least one more week.

Of course, it doesn’t get any easier next Sunday when the Patriots travel to Baltimore to face the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens, a team Brady and his mates lost to twice last season.

But it is also interesting to note that Belichick’s club has not yet salted away the AFC East in 2013. Could the team’s streak of four straight division titles be in jeopardy as well?

Stay tuned. We know you will.

Remaining Schedule: at Ravens (8-6), vs. Bills (5-9)

AFC No. 3 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)

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Playoff Opponent: vs. Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

On Sunday night, the Cincinnati Bengals headed to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers’ team they had beaten the last two times they’ve met, including last December at Heinz Field.

And with the New England Patriots’ loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, a victory would mean a whole lot more than just a rare three-game winning streak over the Black and Gold.

Marvin Lewis’ club could have slipped into the No. 2 spot in the AFC and control its playoff destiny with a victory at Heinz Field. Instead, the Bengals slipped up in the Steel City, falling behind 27-7 at halftime en route to a 30-20 setback.

Fortunately for Lewis and Co., they’re done for the season in terms of playing on the road (at least during the regular season. The Bengals own a 6-0 home record but finished 3-5 away from the Queen City.

But what isn’t a done deal is the AFC North as Cincinnati’s lead in the division is down to one game over the suddenly-hot Baltimore Ravens.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Vikings (4-9-1), vs. Ravens (8-6)

AFC No. 4 Seed: Indianapolis Colts (9-5)

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Clinched AFC South title

Playoff Opponent: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

Well, what do you know? The Indianapolis Colts do know something about the first half of a football game.

They also know that they continue to have the Houston Texans’ number when it comes to hosting this short-lived rivalry.

The Colts ran their home record to 12-0 in this series thanks to a 25-3 win over Wade Phillips’ club, the 12th straight loss for the Texans.

Perhaps the bigger news was the fact that Indianapolis owned a 20-3 lead at intermission. In their previous six games, Chuck Pagano’s squad had been outscored a combined 114-24 in the first half and failed to put up a touchdown in the first 30 minutes of any of those games.

This week, the Colts didn’t score a touchdown in the second half, although they had more than enough in a game in which they shut out Houston after intermission.

Even more significant is the fact that the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals all lost in Week 15. That means Pagano’s club is still in the running for one of those top two playoff seeds in the AFC.

And don’t forget, the Colts defeated the Broncos back in Week 7 at Indianapolis, 39-33.

It never ends, does it?

Remaining Schedule: at Chiefs (11-3), vs. Jaguars (4-10)

AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

Clinched playoff berth

Playoff Opponent: at Indianapolis Colts (9-5)

Welcome back to the playoffs, Kansas City Chiefs and Andy Reid.

The last time both respective parties were headed to the postseason was 2010. That season, the Chiefs won the AFC West, and Reid’s Philadelphia Eagles captured the NFC East. Both clubs finished with 10-6 records.

Now the Chiefs and Reid are in the playoffs thanks to a resounding 56-31 victory over the Oakland Raiders in which running back Jamaal Charles scored five touchdowns.

Talk about a turnaround? A 9-0 start by the Chiefs was followed by a three-game losing streak. But over the last two weeks, Reid’s club has scored 101 points in wins over the Washington Redskins and Raiders.

Last season, the Chiefs were 2-14 and totaled an NFL-low 211 points.

Welcome back.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Colts (9-5), at Chargers (7-7)

AFC No. 6 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

Playoff Opponent: at Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)

Isn’t it a cat that is supposed to have nine lives?

You have to give the nod to the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, who once again found a way to win despite struggling to reach the end zone.

Thanks to six field goals by second-year pro Justin Tucker, including a 61-yard boot with 38 seconds to play, it was the Ravens and not the cat (as in the Detroit Lions) that came away with an 18-16 win on Monday Night Football at Ford Field.

John Harbaugh’s team totaled 305 yards of offense but Tucker’s six kicks totaled 248 yards as he also connected from 29, 24, 32, 49 and 53 yards out. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense picked off Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford three times on the evening.

Thanks to their fourth straight victory, Baltimore now sits just one game behind the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. And who would have thought that about a month ago?

Remaining Schedule: vs. Patriots (10-4), at Bengals (9-5)

NFC No. 1 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

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Clinched playoff berth

Playoff Opponent: First-Round Bye

Anyone still concerned with the Seattle Seahawks’ ability to win on the road?

Considering Pete Carroll’s team came east this weekend and pulled off a 23-0 shutout of the New York Giants?

Not a bad way to perform in a building where Super Bowl XLVIII will be played in a month or so.

Seattle’s defense picked off Giants quarterback Eli Manning five times and limited him to 156 yards through the air and the New York offense to 181 yards on the afternoon.

Meanwhile, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson not only threw for 206 yards and a score (one interception) but also ran for 50 yards.

The Giants managed only 25 yards on the ground all afternoon.

And as for that aforementioned road record, the Seahawks have won six games at home (so far) and six games away from home this season.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Cardinals (9-5), vs. Rams (6-8)

NFC No. 2 Seed: New Orleans Saints (10-4)

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Playoff Opponent: First-Round Bye

A funny thing happened to the New Orleans Saints on their way to closing in on the NFC South title.

Then again, maybe it wasn’t so funny.

A week after disposing of the Carolina Panthers in prime time, Sean Payton’s club hit the road and proceeded to hit a wall called the St. Louis Rams.

The Saints rolled up 432 yards of offense on 80 plays but also had three turnovers, all courtesy of quarterback Drew Brees, in a bewildering 27-16 setback in the Gateway City.

The loss dropped New Orleans’ road record to 3-4 this season. And now Payton and his crew hit the road once again, this time for a showdown with the Panthers in Carolina.

So much for thinking that winning a division title would be a Brees.

Remaining Schedule: at Panthers (10-4), vs. Buccaneers (4-10)

NFC No. 3 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

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Playoff Opponent: vs. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

It’s not often you can get away with giving up 48 points.

The Denver Broncos did it earlier this season thanks to a 51-48 win at Dallas. The Philadelphia Eagles did it on Sunday no thanks to a 48-30 loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

Say what?

Thanks to the Dallas Cowboys and their inability to salt away a 26-3 halftime lead, Chip Kelly’s team remained one game ahead in the NFC East.

The Eagles, who totaled 475 yards on the afternoon, saw their five-game winning streak end as Minnesota rolled up 455 total yards and six offensive touchdowns.

And we could see a similar type of game next Sunday night at Philadelphia when the explosive yet defensively challenged Chicago Bears come to town.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Bears (8-6), at Cowboys (7-7)

NFC No. 4 Seed: Chicago Bears (8-6)

Playoff Opponent: vs. Carolina Panthers (10-4)

Josh McCown? Jay Cutler?

It seems to make no difference.

The Chicago Bears can score points as well as any team in the NFL, save perhaps the Denver Broncos.

And the Bears continue to show that they don’t play a lot of defense this season.

But all’s well that ends well. Marc Trestman’s team survived a seesaw 38-31 affair versus the Cleveland Browns.

The much-discussed decision to reinsert Cutler back in the starting lineup turned out to be much to do about nothing except winning. The veteran quarterback threw a pair of interceptions but also finished with 265 passing yards and three scores in the win.

And thanks to the Baltimore Ravens’ thrilling 18-16 win on Monday night against the Detroit Lions, the Bears are all alone atop the NFC North standings for the time being.

Remaining Schedule: at Eagles (8-6), vs. Packers (7-6-1)

NFC No. 5 Seed: Carolina Panthers (10-4)

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Playoff Opponent: at Chicago Bears (8-6)

Off a humbling 31-13 loss to the New Orleans Saints and with a revenge-type game against Drew Brees and Co. on the horizon, it would have been easy for the Carolina Panthers to overlook the New York Jets.

Not this Carolina Panthers team.

Ron Rivera’s club showed its maturity by taking care of business at home against Rex Ryan’s club. Carolina rolled up 392 total yards on New York’s highly regarded defensive unit and played turnover-free football in the 30-20 victory.

But the real star of the afternoon was much-maligned Panthers cornerback Captain Munnerlyn, who had taken offense last week to criticism from Jets receiver Santonio Holmes. Holmes had called the Panthers secondary the defense's "weakest link."

“I’ve never been called out like that before,” said Munnerlyn to Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer. “I have never been a part of nothing like that. If you think that, I never heard nobody say it. And he went out publicly, and he said it.”

Munnerlyn let his play do the talking. He totaled four tackles, two sacks and returned an interception 41 yards for a touchdown to give his team a 17-point lead midway through the fourth quarter.

With the Jets in the rear-view mirror, Carolina now has the New Orleans Saints on their mind. And the winner of next week’s clash between 10-4 clubs will take the lead in the NFC South.

Now that’s something to talk about.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Saints (10-4), at Falcons (4-10)

NFC No. 6 Seed: San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Playoff Opponent: at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

It certainly bears repeating from a few weeks ago.

Usually when the San Francisco 49ers win a game, as has been the case 10 times this season, they win convincingly. And all aspects of their game were on display against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in Florida via a 33-14 victory.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick threw for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Niners ran for 187 yards on 40 carries. Phil Dawson kicked four field goals, and the San Francisco special teams scored via a fumble return.

For the eighth time in 10 victories, Jim Harbaugh’s team won by at least 10 points. And for the third consecutive season, the Niners have won at least 10 games.

It’s hard not to like what we've seen from this team the last few weeks.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Falcons (4-10), at Cardinals (9-5)