
Packers vs. Cowboys: Who Has the Edge at Every Position
The Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) head to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to take on the Dallas Cowboys (7-6) on Sunday in a contest that is sure to shake up the NFL's playoff picture.
Each of these teams is deeply entrenched in a battle to gain the sixth—and final—seed in the NFC and keep its season alive come January.
Both teams have an uphill climb, as they will need help along the way to move up in the ranks and continue toward the ultimate prize.
This contest marks the beginning of the "playoffs" for each team, as one loss could mean the end of the season at this point.
Someone must have the edge to come out victorious on Sunday, and both of these squads seem equally matched in many different aspects.
Let's take a look at a position-by-position breakdown of the matchup between Dallas and Green Bay to ultimately decide who is heading into Sunday's contest with the advantage.
Quarterback
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According to Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not been medically cleared to return just yet. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, however. Head coach Mike McCarthy said of Rodgers, "He's getting better. He's Aaron Rodgers. The thing you appreciate is, my man can throw the football. He throws the heck out of it."
Even though signs are that he is progressing, it appears as though he will not be ready for Sunday's contest.
The bad news is that this leaves Green Bay with six-year veteran Matt Flynn under center. The good news, however, is that Flynn is going up against a porous Dallas pass defense that ranks dead last in the NFL.
Flynn showed signs of improvement last week against the Atlanta Falcons, completing 24 of 32 attempts for 258 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a passer rating of 95.6. Those numbers could improve again this week against Dallas.
On the flip side, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has had a fantastic year so far. He has tossed 27 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions. Even in a lackluster outing last week against the Chicago Bears, Romo was still able to toss three touchdown passes and zero interceptions.
The knock on Romo is that he is supposed to shut down in December. Well, that does not seem to be the case according to Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated. Says Farrar, "[Romo's] thrown 44 touchdown passes and 24 interceptions [in December], with a YPA of 7.35."
The Cowboys may not have a great overall record in December with Romo at the helm, but it certainly isn't due to the quarterback's performance.
Advantage: Cowboys
Running Back
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This is yet another area where injury is cause for concern for the Packers. Rookie running back Eddie Lacy sprained his right ankle during last week's contest. He was able to play through the injury for the remainder of the game but has not been able to practice yet this week.
Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Lacy would try to practice on Friday, and the team would assess the situation then.
Also, according to Dunne, head coach Mike McCarthy has been impressed with Green Bay's next man up, Kahlil Bell. Said McCarthy:
"Kahlil Bell is doing a hell of a job. I'm hopeful he'll be ready to play if needed. I like what I've seen. Sharp, done a good job on special teams, he's picked up the language fairly well. He's done a good job in his short time.
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No matter which running back gets the start for Green Bay, he will be up against a not-so-stout run defense. Dallas is currently 28th in the league, allowing 128.4 yards per game on the ground to opponents.
The Cowboys, however, have their starter ready to go for Sunday's contest. DeMarco Murray has been fantastic of late. He has received double-digit carries in each of Dallas' last four contests and has made the most of them with a total of 384 yards and four touchdowns in that span.
Now, with Murray going against a Packers run defense that ranks just 25th in the league, giving up an average of 122.6 yards per game, he should continue to post impressive numbers this week.
The advantage here must go to the team that is most certain at the running back position.
Advantage: Cowboys
Wide Receiver
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A trend is forming for the Packers here. Once again, they are not at full strength due to the loss of Randall Cobb earlier this season. According to Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk, Cobb has been activated from injured reserve but has not been cleared to play yet.
With Cobb out of the picture this week, the Packers will have to rely on the duo of Jordy Nelson and James Jones once again.
Neither receiver has been able to put up formidable numbers with Flynn at the helm. Both have had up-and-down games in terms of yardage gained, but neither Nelson nor Cobb has been able to find the end zone over the last six weeks.
That could change this week against a terrible Dallas secondary, as these are two very talented players; however, it's difficult to give them the advantage due to their recent lack of production.
For Dallas, the Dez Bryant show continues to roll along. Bryant has been a consistent target for Romo all season long and has now recorded 70 receptions for 908 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013.
Even though the supporting cast at the position—Miles Austin, Terrance Williams, Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley—isn't the strongest in the league, it is able to flourish due to the attention that Bryant demands.
Green Bay's secondary is ranked 21st in the league, giving up an average of 246.8 pass yards per game, so it is very realistic to expect Bryant and Co. to come away with a big game on Sunday.
Advantage: Cowboys
Tight End
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Yet again, the Packers are decimated at another position. After suffering a spinal contusion earlier this season, tight end Jermichael Finely was placed on injured reserve. This leaves Green Bay with backup tight end Andrew Quarless as the primary option.
Last week against Atlanta, Quarless was able to show that he can produce as a receiver. He was able to connect with Flynn six times for 66 yards and a score.
Still, Quarless is just not as dynamic of a player as Finley, and the Packers offense has suffered as a result.
Spoiler alert: Jason Witten remains one of the league's best tight ends.
At 31 years of age, Witten continues to produce on a weekly basis. He has now caught 55 passes for 632 yards and seven touchdowns in 2013. His production has varied from week to week, but it all depends on the offensive scheme, as he is a very capable receiver and blocker.
Due to the struggling defenses of each team, either one of these tight ends could certainly break out in Sunday's contest. However, it is easy to go with experience here.
Advantage: Cowboys
Offensive Line
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At first glance it seems as though the Cowboys have a clear advantage in this department. Dallas has only given up 30 sacks this season, compared to Green Bay's 37. However, tendencies of quarterbacks come into play here, as Packers signal-callers tend to hold on to the ball slightly longer, causing more sacks.
This becomes evident in efficiency ratings. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranks Green Bay's offensive line seventh overall with a positive-19.7 rating this season. Dallas is still very efficient but ranks ninth with a 16.7 grade in pass protection.
Blocking for the run is a completely different story.
Despite the early success of Lacy, Green Bay has not been efficient blocking for the run. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranks the Packers 22nd in the league with a negative-39.4 rating, while Dallas is ranked fifth with a positive-17.7 rating.
Green Bay does run much more often than Dallas and is 10th in the league in rush yards per game with 128.8 yards per game. Even though the offensive line has struggled at times, the Packers continue to be able to produce on the ground.
Taking defenses into consideration, the Packers have a tremendous pass rush and have recorded 39 sacks this season. The Cowboys have not been able to apply the same amount of pressure and have recorded 27 sacks.
The tiebreaker goes to the offensive line that faces a less-threatening defense.
Advantage: Packers
Defensive Line
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Green Bay and Dallas have very conflicting styles on the defensive line.
In the Packers' 3-4 base defense, Johnny Jolly, BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett combine to plug every available hole for incoming running backs and provide gaps for blitzing linebackers.
These men do not get a great amount of glory, but they are very efficient in the trenches. These three players are one of the main reasons why Green Bay has been able to bring down opposing quarterbacks 39 times this season.
It is a completely different story in Dallas.
Despite a lack of overall sacks for the Cowboys, the defensive line is built for rushing the passer. After moving to a 4-3 base defense this season, DeMarcus Ware has now become a defensive end.
Ware, Jason Hatcher and George Selvie have been a force this season, combining for 21 of the team's 27 sacks. Unfortunately, with the defensive line so pass-oriented, Dallas' run defense struggles as a result.
A 28th-ranked run defense is the end result for a Cowboys team that has many talented pass-rushers but not enough gap-fillers.
This is a very talented group, but it is also very unbalanced.
Both of these lines have been very capable to produce in the manner of their respective defensive schemes this season. Despite the differences in the two styles, the tiebreaker has to go to the end result—the efficiency of the defense. After all, it all starts up front.
Advantage: Packers
Linebacker
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The Packers are entering Sunday's contest with a quartet of linebackers who have combined for 18 sacks on the season. Led by A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews, these players are no strangers to their opponent's backfield.
A great matchup against the Cowboys offensive line will ensue in this week's game. The Cowboys generally have a high-octane passing attack that is capable of eating up chunks of yards at a time. Providing Romo enough time to pass will be critical here.
Matthews and Perry both have positive grades, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), with a 3.0 and 2.4, respectively. On the interior, Brad Jones' and Hawk's performances have been inconsistent. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grades Jones and Hawk with a negative-2.6 and negative-13.2, respectively.
Despite the struggles on the interior—which has led to a Packers 25th-overall ranking against the run—this still remains a very solid unit.
In Dallas' 4-3 scheme, linebackers are asked to do more than simply rush the passer. These players are responsible in coverage as well.
Sean Lee leads the way here. Lee has been able to put together a stellar season in 2013. He has been a solid tackler, with 99 combined tackles on the season and has been great against the pass, recording four interceptions.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranks Lee sixth overall out of all interior linebackers with a positive-8.7 grade.
On the outside, however, Dallas has not been able to find the same amount of consistency. With a mix of players taking up the strong side and a struggling Bruce Carter on the weak side, these players are a big reason for Dallas' inconsistency on defense.
All in all, the Packers have a more stable unit to work with.
Advantage: Packers
Defensive Back
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Green Bay's secondary has not been able to recreate its ball-hawking ways in 2013. With only seven interceptions this season, it is tied for second-least in the NFL.
Not only is it struggling to create turnovers, but it has not been in place to make plays on the ball this season. With just 54 passes broken up this year, the group ranks 28th in the league.
Of the group, Tramon Williams has had the most success this season. He has been able to record two interceptions, 2.5 sacks and 63 combined tackles to this point. His efficiency is reflected in his 23rd-overall ranking by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) with a positive-5.8 grade.
Dallas has been efficient passing the ball this season, with an average of 234.6 yards per game, which could mean that the Packers secondary is in for a long day.
The Cowboys have been unable to contain most teams' passing attacks this season. They are ranked dead last in the league and are giving up an average of 298.5 passing yards per game.
They have been able to come away with 13 interceptions this season; however, that is partly due to the frequency in which opponents are throwing against them.
Brandon Carr has been able to flash at times this season, recording three interceptions and successfully defending 11 passes. Orlando Scandrick has intercepted two passes and defended 12 while stepping in for the injured—and under-performing—Morris Claiborne.
Even with Flynn at the helm, Green Bay is still a capable team through the air, as it is currently ranked ninth in the league while averaging 265.6 yards per game. Flynn could put up some big numbers this week against a Dallas secondary that has become a liability.
Advantage: Packers
Special Teams
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Both Green Bay and Dallas have very efficient punters who are more than capable of controlling the battle for field position. Chris Jones has been able to down an impressive 29 balls inside the 20-yard line, while Tim Masthay has recorded 22.
Jones and Masthay have been very accurate in this area of the field, as they have only been responsible for five and four touchbacks, respectively.
Kickers Mason Crosby and Dan Bailey have been extremely reliable this season. Crosby enters Sunday connecting on 29 of 33 field-goal attempts (87.9 percent) with a long of 57 yards. Bailey has made 19 of 21 attempts (90.5 percent) with a long of 53 yards.
The difference here is in the return game.
Even though both teams have been stellar on punt returns—Dallas is averaging 11.5 yards while Green Bay is averaging 11.4 yards—kick returns could not be more night and day.
For Dallas, Dwayne Harris has been fantastic returning kicks, as the team ranks fourth in the league with an average of 25.9 yards per return. Green Bay, on the other hand, has struggled mightily. It currently ranks dead last with an average return of just 18.8 yards.
Advantage: Cowboys
Coaching
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Both the Cowboys and Packers have been able to overcome multiple injuries and maintain their position for a potential playoff berth this season.
Much of the credit must be given to the coaching staff of both teams. It is extremely difficult to stay afloat while key players miss substantial time.
Head coach Jason Garrett has been able to keep the Cowboys in contention despite their roller-coaster performances from week to week. Even though the defense has struggled, he has been able to maintain a solid enough offense to compete with some of the NFL's better teams.
On the other hand, head coach Mike McCarthy continues to keep his team in the running even though the Packers have suffered multiple catastrophic injuries.
Losing Aaron Rodgers for multiple games has been plaguing the Packers. However, they remain in the mix due to McCarthy's adjustments to the offense.
By creating a balanced attack—the Packers passed 32 times and rushed 33 times last week against the Falcons—McCarthy and Co. made enough adjustments to go 1-1-1 over their last three games.
Because of their similar records, the advantage here goes to the team that has had to overcome the most in a short period of time.
Advantage: Packers
Final Verdict
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By our count, this matchup remains even by a score of 5-5. The Cowboys have most of the advantage on offense, with quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and special teams on their side. The Packers look more stout defensively, with offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, defensive back and coaching as their advantages.
This should certainly be a highly contested matchup on Sunday, with the loser possibly missing out on the playoffs this season.
Both teams will surely be ready to pull out all of the stops when they meet each other in Arlington.
Expect a bit of a shootout here, as Dallas will continue to roll on offense, and the Packers will generate enough fire power to slice through the Cowboys defensive unit.
What this all comes down to is home-field advantage.
The game will be played on the Cowboys' turf and in front of their fans. Rest assured that everyone in that stadium knows the consequences of this game.
It will be loud, and it will be distracting for this makeshift Packers team.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Packers 24
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