Broncos vs. Patriots: Biggest X-Factors in Battle of AFC Powerhouses

Every NFL game is meaningful, but there are some games that are just special. For the past decade, a meeting between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady has been a game to circle on your calendar, and in Week 12 we finally get to witness the clash between the decade’s greatest quarterbacks and two of the NFL’s best teams.

Here are the biggest factors that will dictate how this Week 12 matchup between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos unfolds.

Peyton Manning, Foxboro and the Weather

Peyton Manning doesn’t have a good record when he plays at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA.

He also doesn’t have a great track record when he’s playing in cold weather. Here’s a look at how his record in games varies by temperature, via Benjamin Hochman of The Denver Post.

Manning doesn’t mix well with low temperatures and the outdoors. Guess what the conditions for Sunday Night Football will be this week?

Peyton Manning’s ability to deal with the conditions will be a big factor in this epic matchup, so watch out for the crispness on his throws and whether his accuracy is wavering early.

Stevan Ridley’s Fumble-itis

There is no questioning Stevan Ridley’s talent as a runner. He exploded for 1,263 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns last year, and he’s hitting stride again this season.

Ridley has scored seven touchdowns in the last five games, but he’s also lost a fumble in the last two contests, which has resulted in a rapid decrease in his involvement on the field.

With the return of Shane Vereen, there are other running backs for head coach Bill Belichick to turn to, but Ridley is by far the best runner out of the bunch. If he can hang on to the ball and stay in the game, he’ll be a crucial part of the Patriots’ offense and a game plan that revolves around keeping Manning off the field.

If he commits a costly mistake, it won’t just be the fumble that hurts his team but the lack of playing time that is sure to follow.

Health of Julius Thomas

Julius Thomas came out of nowhere to become an integral cog of the devastating Denver Broncos passing attack. He’s also been Manning’s favorite target in the red zone, leading the team with 10 receiving touchdowns.

His status for Week 12 is uncertain, and he’ll be a game-time decision.

The beauty of the Broncos passing attack is that it doesn’t rely on one particular player, but Thomas’ absence would be a huge boost for a Patriots defense that is banged up and missing their best cover linebacker, Jerod Mayo, according to ProFootballFocus (subscription required).

Player	PFF Pass Coverage Grade
Dont'a Hightower	-6.5
Brandon Spikes	-2.7
Jerod Mayo	+2.1
Jamie Collins	-2.0
Dane Fletcher	-1.5

Even if Thomas plays, he may be limited on the field, so his health will be a big factor in the game. Can the Broncos capitalize on what should be a favorable matchup in the red zone and up the seams, or will they have to work without one of Manning's go-to targets in the red zone?