Colts vs. Titans: Full Preview, Predictions for Thursday Night Football

The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans are coming off embarrassing losses in Week 10 and find themselves in a prime-time matchup with massive AFC South implications. 

Chuck Pagano's team fell flat against the St. Louis Rams at home, and Mike Munchak's group lost to the winless Jacksonville Jaguars. 

With a victory, Tennessee could create some tension in Indianapolis, and if the Colts can secure this win on the road, they'll be well on their way to winning their first division title since the departure of Peyton Manning.

What will ultimately decide this game? 

Let's take a look.

Titans' Major Storyline No. 1: Can Tennessee's Defensive Front Get After Andrew Luck?

In last week's out-of-nowhere, how'd-that-happen drubbing against the St. Louis Rams at home, the Colts offensive line was demolished. 

Andrew Luck was sacked three times, which isn't terrible—but according to Pro Football Focus  (subscription required), he was blitzed only nine times yet was "under pressure" on 24 of his 54 dropbacks, which divides out to nearly 45 percent.  

For perspective, Russell Wilson and Terrelle Pryor have been under pressure on 46.6 percent of their dropbacks in 2013, the highest percentage among quarterbacks who've taken at least 50 percent of their respective team's snaps this season. 

Through nine games, the Titans have mustered only 25 sacks, good for 16th in the NFL. But they have four defensive tackles ranked in the top 25 of PFF's Pressure Percentage metric—a stat that essentially ranks defenders on their efficiency in rushing the quarterback— in Jurrell Casey, Antonio Johnson, Karl Klug and Mike Martin.

Titans' Major Storyline No. 2: Can Ryan Fitzpatrick Play Consistently?

Ryan Fitzpatrick has done well for himself in the NFL as a former seventh-round selection out of Harvard. While he failed when given the opportunity to be a franchise quarterback with the Buffalo Bills, he has plenty of experience and can flash on occasion—he's a fine backup signal-caller. 

Here's what he said about his interim role moving forward, per TitansOnline.com:

"

I felt more comfortable going into the last game for whatever reason, being thrown into the fire like that than I have the two previous starts. I think the two starts and getting the experience with the guys on the field and having a feel for them and them having a feel for me (helped).

"

With Fitzpatrick, the foundational issues are lack of consistency and turnovers.

In four games this season, he has completed a pedestrian 56.8 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Titans don't need Fitzpatrick to outduel Luck, but he can't single-handedly lose the game. 

If Tennessee wants to be the slightest bit encouraged, opposing quarterbacks are averaging a robust 8.1 yards per attempt against Indianapolis' secondary this season. 

Titans' Most Important Matchup: Secondary vs. Colts Receiving Corps

While the Titans need to disrupt Luck early and often, they must limit the Colts' beleaguered receiving corps, which now stars T.Y. Hilton. 

In the two games since Reggie Wayne went down for the year with a torn ACL, the speedy second-year wideout has 14 receptions for 251 yards and three touchdowns. 

The other nine offensive players who've caught a pass during that stretch have combined for 35 catches for 441 yards and one score.

Luckily for Mike Munchak's club, cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner are playing at an elite level. The latter has snagged five interceptions thus far. 

Containing Hilton and the supplementary pass-catchers will be huge for the Titans. 

Colts' Major Storyline No. 1: Can Indianapolis' Offensive Line Rebound?

Not only was Luck pressured far too often against the Rams, the run game was essentially nonexistent. 

Luck led the team with four rushes for 17 yards, while Trent Richardson carried it five times for two yards. Two yards. 

Donald Brown finished the game with two attempts for minus-one yard. As a team, the Colts ran the football 14 times for 18 yards.

That just can't happen again. 

Sure, the Colts were forced into passing situations in the second half in Week 10, but a more balanced attack would benefit all parties with a blue horseshoe on their helmets.

The game of football is interconnected. For as unimpressive as the Colts offensive line was against St. Louis, Indianapolis' running backs simply must be better. 

Oh, and Pep Hamilton needs to find the happy medium between the run-heavy Stanford offense and the pass-happy attack that highlights Luck, the team's best player.

Though he couldn't control what he was traded for, it's time for Richardson to show the Colts they didn't make a mistake.

Tennessee allows 4.1 yards per carry, so Indianapolis should look to exploit that relative weakness. 

Colts' Major Storyline No. 2: Can Robert Mathis Continue His Dominant Season? 

Heading into Week 11, the 32-year-old Robert Mathis leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks. Meanwhile, the rest of the Colts defense has 10.5 combined sacks. 

Sacks aren't everything, and the Indianapolis organization knows the importance of a threatening pass-rush, as it was the equalizer for many Colts defenses in the past that had holes at other levels. 

Mathis will likely match up with Tennessee's stalwart left tackle, Michael Roos, for most of the evening. The battle on the edge between the two wily veterans will have a major impact on the game, especially with Fitzpatrick's occasionally shaky ball security.

Even if Tennessee's offense gets in rhythm and scores points to stay with the Colts, a strip sack by Mathis could completely change the game.

Per PFF, Mathis generates some type of quarterback pressure (hurry, hit or sack) every 6.36 pass-rush snaps, and he's graded out as the NFL's third-best 3-4 outside linebacker this season. 

On the flip side, Roos has allowed a quarterback hurry, hit or sack every 16.3 pass-blocking snaps in 2013 and is No. 11 in PFF's offensive tackle rankings.

Colts' Most Important Matchup: Indianapolis' Interior Offensive Line vs. Jurrell Casey

Casey is the easily the most underrated player in this game, and it's not close. They say generating pressure up the middle is a quarterback's worst nightmare, and that's precisely what the 6'1'', 305-pound monster does on a rather consistent basis. 

Hugh Thornton and Samson Satele will have their hands full with Casey, and they must limit him to keep the pocket clean from Luck.

If Casey can be somewhat neutralized, the Colts' run and pass game should be able to move the ball enough to sneak out of Tennessee with a win.  

Bottom Line

	QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Coach
Titans		X	X		X	X		X
Colts	X			X			X		X	X

The Colts are the better team on paper, but their offensive line will have problems against Casey and Co. Also, McCourty and Verner have formulated one of the NFL's most sound cornerback tandems. 

Fitzpatrick will make some mistakes, but don't be shocked if Chris Johnson breaks a long run or two. 

At home, Tennessee's defense will be the biggest reason the Titans win this game. 

Prediction: Titans 24, Colts 21

Follow @ChrisTrapasso