Bowl Projections 2013: How Oregon's Loss Shakes Up BCS Games

Marcus Mariota and the No. 3 Oregon Ducks were exposed Thursday.

With the Ducks falling to the Stanford Cardinal in stunning 26-20 fashion, which doesn't do the physical abuse justice, the BCS standings are as murky as ever.

Stanford didn't just jump back into the good graces of the BCS—it also blew the Ducks out of the air by holding an offense that ranks second in the nation with 55.6 points per game to 20 points and 311 total yards, all while racking up 377 total yards of its own.

There's a major reshuffling of the cards as a result, with only one thing set in stone: As of now, No. 1 Alabama will surely play No. 2 Florida State for the national championship.

After trading places the previous few weeks, the Ducks wound up behind the Seminoles solely thanks to strength of schedule, but it matters little now that Oregon has been exposed as a pretender.

What does matter is where the likes of Stanford, Baylor and Ohio State end up, especially with Baylor notching a major win over the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners, as illustrated by CBS Sports:

The only sure thing is that the trio has no shot of playing in the national championship after Florida State's dismantling of then-No. 3 Clemson in mid-October and then-No. 7 Miami (FL) in early November.

With that in mind, it's a free-for-all from here on out. The likely scenario is Ohio State staying put and earning a spot in the Rose Bowl. There's plenty going against the Buckeyes, but a close Stanford win (rather than a blowout) all but ensures the Buckeyes stay put.

Sure, the Big Ten is horrendous, with only a likely date against No. 17 Michigan State and one of the nation's best defenses standing in the way of the conference championship, but the Buckeyes remain undefeated.

On the other hand, Stanford has an ugly loss against unranked Utah from mid-October on the record. While the major win over the Ducks goes a long way, the one mark in the loss column remains.

Baylor is in an interesting situation. If there is one team that is going to jump the Buckeyes, it'll be the Bears and an offense that has scored over 70 points in four games this year—albeit against a cupcake schedule.

In other words, expect the Rose Bowl to shake out as Ohio State against Stanford, while Baylor gets Fresno State, Central Florida or—wait for it—Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

Bottom line—Oregon won't play for a national championship this year, and if a one-loss team does, it will be the Cardinal. Ohio State is not getting jumped this week, as it is one of only six remaining undefeated teams in the nation.

For now, Oregon's rank does more harm to Oregon than any other team, although it may have set up fans for a dream offensive showdown with the Bears.

Stay tuned. The wild movements up and down the rankings as the bowls make themselves known are just getting started.

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