Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet

Taking the underdog when wagering on an NFL game may not be the most accepted trend amongst the general betting public, but it is often the right choice to make.

Every week, a handful of teams expected to lose find a way to gain a straight up victory, while plenty of others keep it close enough to cover the spread.

Let’s take a look at the entire slate of Week 7 games, check out my predictions for the winner of each contest and highlight some matchups where the 'dog is too enticing to avoid.

Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction (ATS)
Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals	SEA -6.5	Cardinals
New England Patriots	New York Jets	NE -4.5	Patriots
San Diego Chargers	Jacksonville Jaguars	SD -7	Chargers
Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -6.5	Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals	Detroit Lions	DET -.2.5	Lions
Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	MIA -10.5	Bills
Chicago Bears	Washington Redskins	PK	Bears
Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	DAL -1.5	Cowboys
St. Louis Rams	Carolina Panthers	CAR -5	Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -7.5	Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers	Tennessee Titans	SF -4	49ers
Cleveland Browns	Green Bay Packers	GB -10.5	Packers
Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -2.5	Ravens
Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	DEN -6	Colts
Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	NYG -3	Vikings

Buffalo Bills (+10.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Bills used Week 6 to prove that they aren’t going to be a doormat in EJ Manuel’s absence, sparring with the Cincinnati Bengals throughout regulation and into overtime before losing on a late field goal.

Thad Lewis proved that he is actually a competent replacement quarterback. He completed 19 of 32 passes for 216 yards and two scores, while managing to avoid throwing an interception. The second-year man out of Duke did fumble one away and took five sacks, but it’s clear that Buffalo isn’t going to be a joke while he’s under center.

The Bills have a tough test against AFC East rival Miami this coming Sunday, but definitely have what it takes to cover the spread on the road.

As long as the Buffalo defense can make enough stops and avoid giving up too many early scores, there is a good chance the offense comes through by generating yardage and touchdowns.

The ‘Phins are coming off a bye and could get caught underprepared, as the team may be looking ahead to a potential division-defining contest against the New England Patriots in Week 8.

It would be a grave mistake, as the Bills are not only capable of easily covering this spread by keeping it close, but also have the talent to outright win down in South Beach.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

This NFC South showdown features the winless Bucs clashing with the 1-4 Falcons in a battle of disappointing teams.

While neither has lived up to lofty expectations in 2013, Atlanta is still being treated like a Super Bowl contender by the oddsmakers. Until the books stop offering the Falcons at a price they can’t back up, it’s wise and advisable to bet against the Dirty Birds.

Atlanta is coming off a bye and had some time to sort things out, but it has yet to show any signs that is the same dominant team it has been for the past few seasons.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers continued to make strides and weren’t terrible in a 31-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Quarterback Mike Glennon and top wideout Vincent Jackson clearly have a rapport, generating 114 yards and two scores on nine connections. Running back Doug Martin broke off a handful of decent gains and the rest of the offense looked more promising than in previous weeks.

As long as the defense can step up and make a few plays in the Georgia Dome, there is little doubt that Tampa can keep a divisional game closer than a touchdown. Remember, this team narrowly lost to the New Orleans Saints in a 16-14 defensive slugfest back in Week 2 and could provide a similar result on Sunday.

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+6) over Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis will be a must-see spectacle that is compounded by being on national television during Sunday Night Football.

The expectations are much lower for Denver in this contest compared to Week 6, when the Broncos were installed as a 28-point favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Denver walked away with a convincing 35-19 win, but did have a few scares against a team with nothing to lose that played like it for every snap.

Manning threw an uncharacteristic interception and lost two fumbles, showing that an aggressive defense that can put pressure on the aging signal-caller is one way to slow down the Broncos offensive juggernaut.

Indianapolis possesses one of the league’s top defensive units and should follow the blueprint that AFC South rival Jacksonville laid out. As long as the Colts are pressuring Manning and creating turnovers, the Broncos offense won’t be out on the field long.

If that offense is not out on the field for long, then there cannot be a flurry of points scored.

If those points aren’t scored, then Denver will be susceptible to its first loss of the season, something the Colts have a better than average shot at delivering.

Getting six points is solid in a situation where the home team has a great chance of outright winning. It’s never fun to bet against Manning in a prime-time game, but you need to break the established rules here and get paid.