Can Michael Turner Match Last Year's Fantasy Success in 2009?

After years of being buried behind the great LaDainian Tomlinson on the depth chart in San Diego, Michael Turner, the former backup running back, flew the coup in 2008 and headed for a starting job in Atlanta.

The Falcons, coming off a horrific 2007 campaign, signed the 244-pound bruiser to a $34-million contract over five years, and he rewarded them handsomely with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 TD last season.

Or, in our language, 277 fantasy points, good for No. 2 at the position behind fellow NFC South back DeAngelo Williams (278).

Was this an aberration, or should we expect these type of numbers from Turner again in 2009?

All elements certainly appear to be in place to build off of 2008.

Roddy White is a year older and is now in the conversation of top wide receivers in the game. The Falcons boldly went out and upgraded the tight end position by picking up Tony Gonzalez in a pre-draft trade. The offensive line is a year more mature and developed from midseason on into a formidable unit.

And we can't forget that quarterback Matt Ryan, the 2008 NFL Rookie of the Year, will be entering his second season and could be poised to take a big step forward.

So there's a lot to like.

But there are also reasons to think that Turner will be unable to match last year's fantasy success and could take a significant step back.

The Falcons will no longer be blessed with a last-place schedule; they've now got a second-place docket and face off with the NFC East in 2009. Facing defenses like the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and 'Skins—all in the top eight statistically last season—is a far more daunting task than dealing with last season's opponents, the Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings.

The Falcons also get the AFC East, which features stingy defenses in the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins.

This could present obstacles to Ryan's maturation. Already having to face two tough defenses in his division two times per year in Carolina and Tampa Bay, now he has to add seven more to his plate. Quickly, it looks like yards will be harder to come by in 2009.

Turner's production will definitely be affected as a result of the schedule. As quality defenses know how to pressure the QB, they'll key in on Turner and force Ryan to beat them.

And as sensational as "The Burner" was last year when defensive coordinators tried this approach, it's a whole different story when Giants defensive end Justin Tuck is breathing down your neck or when Cowboys linebacker DeMarcus Ware gets a free release and is draped all over your back.

On top of this, the set enemies for the upcoming campaign are well balanced and pack a solid offensive attack as well. That could leave Atlanta playing from behind in '09, which will take away carries and attempts from Turner, as Jerious Norwood usually comes in for passing situations.

So based on the arguments presented for the two sides above, do I think Turner could have an even better fantasy season than he had in 2008, or even match last year's production?

Not a chance.

In fact, a significant drop-off should be expected. Look for 17 TD to turn into 11 or 12 and 1,699 yards to turn into 1,250 to 1,300.

This is not a knock on Turner himself or his ability; it's a testament to the schedule his team was given and the fact that gaining yards will be a heck of a lot more difficult in 2009.

So as you put together your board prior to this year's fantasy draft, definitely keep Turner in Round One, just towards the bottom half, from picks seven to 10.