NFL Predictions Week 6: Low-Scoring Games with High Significance

As Week 6 of the 2013 NFL season draws near, a number of teams are looking to capitalize on opportunities to gain ground within their respective divisions.

While some games promise to showcase lofty offensive numbers, a number of these matchups may likely turn into low-scoring affairs, relying more on defense, time of possession and generating turnovers at opportune moments.

Four of these games figure to fit the bill.  The New York Jets hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers should feature a defensive showcase while the Carolina Panthers at the Minnesota Vikings will provide two offenses looking to get on track. 

The divisional matchup between the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs should also be low scoring as will the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers.

Yet none of these games can be considered meaningless.  Each aforementioned team has something to gain or something to lose.  Thus, the matchups are just as critical regardless of what the final outcome will be.

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Steelers @ Jets

Sunday, October 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET

From all indication, this matchup features one team on the rise versus another team looking to regain prominence.

The 3-2 Jets enter Week 6 in the wake of their shocking Monday Night Football victory over the Atlanta Falcons the week prior.  With that momentum, they hope to thwart a Steelers team still looking for their first victory of the 2013 season.

Quarterback Geno Smith and the Jets have been a pleasant surprise this season while Pittsburgh has been on the decline. 

New York has shown it can move the ball especially on the ground.  Thus far, they rank eighth in the NFL with 610 rushing yards. 

Their defense has played decently too, ranking 15th in the league averaging 23.2 points allowed per game.  Stopping the run has been critical for New York as they have given up only 381 rushing yards this season.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been a mess.  Their passing offense ranks 21st in the league and they are dead last in total rushing yards.

The Steelers can still count on their defense however.  Pittsburgh has given up just over 1,200 yards of total offense in four games and has done a good job of thwarting the running game.  They have allowed only 232 yards on the ground thus far.

In this particular matchup, look for Pittsburgh to try and shut down New York's ground attack and force Smith to throw the ball.  Smith is vulnerable to turnovers having thrown eight interceptions already this season.

Yet the Steelers will not be able to do much offensively which should result in their defense getting tired before game's end. 

Turnovers, as in any game, will be vital and do not expect Smith and the Jets offense to put up lofty numbers. 

Still, they should be able to walk away from this matchup with a victory and the Steelers continue on their downward trend.

Prediction: Jets 17, Steelers 10

 

Panthers @ Vikings

Sunday, October 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET

The Vikings are coming off a bye following their first win of the season while the Panthers are coming off a 22-6 loss at Arizona.

Both teams have a 1-3 record yet the Vikings should be bolstered both by their home-field advantage and the added rest from the bye week.

Feeding running back Adrian Peterson will continue to be Minnesota's formula.  It has worked all season long and there is no reason to move away from that in Week 6.  Carolina's 19th-ranked rush defense will certainly have problems slowing him down.

With the addition of Josh Freeman, there is a bit of a quarterback controversy although head coach Leslie Frazier has stated that incumbent Christian Ponder will get the nod if healthy. 

While Minnesota's running game has been stellar, the passing offense clearly needs some work.  The Vikings pass offense ranks 30th in the league in yards and has delivered only four touchdowns against five interceptions after four games.

Expect Carolina's defense to do their best to exploit that weakness.

The Panthers have given up only 58 points over their four games and have done a solid job versus both the run and the passing game.  Their defense has been their lone strength up to this point and they will seek out similar success against Minnesota.

On offense however, it is safe to say that Carolina has been a disappointment.  Quarterback Cam Newton is not having a good year and the Panthers are 31st in the league in total passing yards.  They are much better moving the ball on the ground however.

A win for the Vikings would be critical in moving the team back towards the .500 mark.  They play the winless Giants in Week 7 so a victory in Week 6 could put them on track.

For the Panthers, a win would also bode well given that there are only five teams in the NFC with winning records thus far.  They probably will not overtake the 5-0 New Orleans Saints within their division but a playoff berth is still possible.

Yet home-field advantage and the added bye gives Minnesota the edge in this low-scoring affair.

Prediction: Vikings 16, Panthers 6

 

Raiders @ Chiefs

Sunday, October 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET

Like the Jets, the 5-0 Chiefs have also been a surprise this season.  In addition, the Raiders have exceeded expectations in spite of their 2-3 record.

Kansas City should have little trouble disposing of Oakland in Week 6 yet the victory will not be high scoring in any sense.

What the Raiders have going for them is a crafty defense that has done well against some stiff opposition this far into the season.  Oakland’s defense ranks 12th in the league against the run.  Their pass defense is further behind at 24th. 

Much of those stats were skewed by their Week 3 game in Denver against the Broncos.

Yet quarterback Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense is nothing like that of the Broncos.  Smith is an excellent game manager and will not make mistakes against the Raiders.  He will also not be putting up huge numbers. 

Instead, look for Smith to do his thing and running back Jamaal Charles to get most of the work on the ground.

Oakland will have some good defensive stands but Kansas City should make some substantial games even if the drives take some time.  Ball control and time of possession is critical after all.

The Raiders offense will counter with quarterback Terrelle Pryor and an offense that is averaging 19.6 points per game.  Kansas City's No. 2-ranked defense should be able to handle that and limit Oakland's chances.

Any divisional rivalry is worth watching and this one is no different.  The Chiefs want to continue on their unbeaten trend and have an excellent shot at doing so.  Oakland would love to spoil the party and prove that their team is not as bad as some thought they would be this season.

Still, Kansas City has too much going for them.  They will not have to punish the Raiders offensively so do not expect them to.  Oakland will not be able to answer back.

This game will look a lot like the 1969 AFC Championship Game as stated by ProFootballGuru.com's Russell Baxter.

Prediction: Chiefs 17, Raiders 7

 

Cardinals @ 49ers

Sunday, October 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET

In Week 5, it was the 49ers defense that dominated the Houston Texans and not quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the passing game.

For San Francisco, it is a good sign for their defense to get back on track.  Five weeks into the season, the 49ers defense ranks 13th in the league despite giving up some lofty numbers against the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively.

What will Arizona's offense be able to do against San Francisco?  Probably not much. 

The team's offense sits at 28th in the league in total points scored and has averaged 18.2 points per game.  The Cardinals offensive line is also permeable as quarterback Carson Palmer has been sacked 12 times already this year.

He is also prone to interceptions as pointed out by Christian Gin of Examiner.com.

Expect the 49ers pass rush to exploit these weaknesses early and often.

On the other side of the field, San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick will look to return to his 2012 form against Arizona's 10th-ranked defense.

One notable matchup will be how 49ers wide receiver Anquan Boldin handles Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson.  Peterson is one of the best corners in the league and Boldin is one of Kaepernick's few targets.

Needless to say, do not expect a lot of passing yards to come from this game.

Both teams will try to pound out the running game.  For the 49ers, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will likely get a lot of carries yet Arizona is sixth in the league in defending the run. 

The Cardinals' ground game will counter with Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington although the tandem has combined for a mere 339 yards this season.

Both teams sit at 3-2 and are looking to climb up the ladder in one of the tougher divisions in the NFC. 

With home-field advantage and a much better running game, the 49ers get the edge in this one.  Their defense is back on track as well. 

There will not be a lot of offense.  Simply put, there is no need for it.

Prediction: 49ers 20, Arizona 10

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While none of these games will feature dynamic and high-powered offenses, the matchups are nonetheless important.

Each team is looking for something.  Some are trying to get back on track after a lackluster start to the season.  Others are hoping to continue their surge in momentum.  Sure, fans and analysts love high-scoring victories, yet a win is a win regardless of what it took to get there.

All of these aforementioned games should be a perfect indication of that statement.

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.

 

 

 

Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.  Follow him @PeterMcShots on Twitter.