Fantasy Football Week 4: Top Stars Due for Bounce-Back Outings

The great (and horrible) thing about fantasy football—and the NFL in general, actually—is that a majority of our assumptions are built on one-week sample sizes.

Because teams play just once per week and recency bias plays a large factor in our analyses of just about everything, last Sunday is always the most important one in our minds.

Usually, this manifests itself on the waiver wire. Too often, you'll see fantasy owners threatening to commit felonies against each other over James Starks' waiver rights, only to watch on helplessly one week later as Johnathan Franklin scampers for 103 yards and a touchdown in his first career appearance.

The lesson: Don't ever trust Green Bay running backs. Oh, and it's also good to trust a body of work rather than overreacting to small samples.

Another manifestation of our recency bias comes after a "star" player has a bad game. Seriously, take a look at a player's Twitter mentions after a poor performance. It's a cesspool of the lowest common denominator of fan.

It's no wonder that players have increasingly become bitter toward fantasy sports as it's become more prominent in the culture.

But for those of us who don't go around hurling insults at players for their poor performance and practice patience with teams, that's usually rewarded with bounce-back performances. Every year, we see a few guys fall off their top billing due to injury or age, but top players are usually considered such because, well, they're the best at their respective positions.

Judging a player by a down week is flawed, and it's usually a one-way ticket to missing your league's playoffs. 

With that in mind, let's check in on a few guys due for a return to star status this week after down Week 3 outings. 

  

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Boy, I'm sure glad I didn't buy into all this frivolous Colin Kaepernick hype after Week 1. Oh, you mean I did? All right then. Sorry about that.

Let's just say the past two weeks haven't gone well for any of us—those who thought Kap was a possible MVP candidate or his fantasy owners.

After throwing for 412 yards and three touchdowns in the 49ers' evisceration of Green Bay in Week 1, Kaepernick is without a touchdown in his past 55 passes. In losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts, he's tossed four picks and has just 277 yards total through the air.

Fantasy owners were given a slight reprieve with his 87 rushing yards against Seattle, but those were almost completely wiped off the board by his three interceptions.

Watching Colin Kaepernick play quarterback over these past two weeks has been about as uplifting as a Zapruder film.

The following people have as many or more fantasy points than Kaepernick this season: Sam Bradford, E.J. Manuel, Matt Schaub, Terrelle Pryor, Jake Locker, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder and Alex Smith. 

Oh, right. You came here looking for positive reinforcement. Well, if there's any team that Kaepernick should be able to return to form against, it's the St. Louis Rams—San Francisco's opponent on Thursday Night Football. 

The Rams head into Week 4 having given up at least 24 points every week this season, including 31 in losses to Dallas and Atlanta in the past two weeks.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 19.7 points per game against the struggling St. Louis secondary, which has allowed an average of over 300 yards through the air per week.

Sure, Jeff Fisher's bunch got up for both games against San Francisco last season and Thursday games usually have the enjoyability of a Zapruder—wait, I already did that joke. Thursday games are horrible.

But Kaepernick is too talented for this downturn to last much longer. In 2012, ostensibly his rookie season, he didn't have any games as wretched as his past two. Look for Kaepernick to get back on track this week.

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

I suppose, at least from a fantasy sense, McFadden wasn't a "bad" play last week. He scored a rushing touchdown from a yard out and threw his first career touchdown pass on a trick play in the third quarter.

Ten fantasy points are 10 fantasy points no matter how they're made.

Still, if you're going to say McFadden isn't due for a bounce-back contest when he had nine total yards and needed a garbage-time run and fluke pass attempt to have any value whatsoever, well, be my guest.

The Broncos, as they have many times this season, suffocated the Oakland rushing attack from start to finish. Terrelle Pryor was even a relative non-factor.

In a lucky twist of fate for fantasy owners, the Raiders aren't finishing up home-and-home with Denver this week. Instead, they get paid a visit by the Redskins, who boast a defense that's made opposing offenses look like the 2007 Patriots in each of the first three weeks.

Heading into Week 4, the Redskins are the worst defense in football by more than 17 yards. And that figure is relatively deflated because the Chargers have been borderline historic in their putridity as well.

To wit, Washington gives up nearly double the yardage of top-ranked Seattle on a weekly basis. Jim Haslett's unit ranks 31st in both pass and run defense while Football Outsiders indicates that the group has compiled a 37.9 defensive DVOA percentage—more than 10 percent worse than the next team.

The Redskins give up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the third-most to running backs and the most to opposing wide receivers.

Shall I go on? No? Sounds good.

So don't fret, McFadden owners. I have a feeling he won't need a garbage-time score and the old Madden NFL "RB Toss Pass" play to bring top-tier value in Week 4.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears

For a little more than 50 minutes of last week's game against the Steelers, Brandon Marshall owners sat with sweaty palms as their top receiver was essentially a non-factor.

The Bears wideout and favorite of Jay Cutler had four receptions in the first three quarters, but they had gone for a total of 11 yards.

While these numbers are impossible to cobble together, I'm sure quite a few owners came in needing five or fewer points from Marshall thinking their Week 3 win was a foregone conclusion.

And then...nothing.

Marshall was essentially shut down by the Pittsburgh secondary, with Jay Cutler doing his best Rex Grossman impersonation as the defense carried Chicago through a blowout win.

But on a fateful drive that took the Bears from four points up to a 34-23 lead, Marshall and Cutler finally connected. It was on just one pass, but the 41-yard gain catalyzed the entire drive and brought Marshall's numbers into semi-respectability.

He finished with five catches for 52 yards. Just good enough of a figure to not make fantasy owners throw tomatoes at their screen, but just bad enough to make them think about it. 

The total was Marshall's fourth-lowest since joining the Bears before last season.

I'm sure you've caught on to where this is headed by now. Chicago hits the road this week to take on the Lions, a much-improved defense but one that still has plenty of flaws—particularly in the secondary. While Detroit is yet to give up a touchdown to an opposing receiver this season, it ranks 18th in football in opposing passing yards. 

That's not exactly Redskins-level chum, but Marc Trestman seems to have struck a chord with this offense.

Cutler is playing with a level of smarts and efficiency we've rarely seen over a three-week sample during his career and Marshall has been a huge benefactor in his quarterback's increased efficiency. 

If there's anything their years in Denver and Chicago should have taught fantasy owners, it's never to doubt the near-telepathic connection between Cutler and Marshall. Everything should be back to normal Sunday.

And don't be surprised if that first touchdown allowed to a receiver by the Lions goes to Marshall.

Other Down Dudes to Dabble With: Robert Griffin III (QB, Washington Redskins), Tom Brady (QB, New England Patriots), Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars), Frank Gore (RB, San Francisco 49ers), Reggie Wayne (Wr, Indianapolis Colts), Mike Wallace (WR, Miami Dolphins), Owen Daniels (TE, Houston Texans).

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