NFL Lines Week 4: Best Bets Against the Spread

It’s never fun to lose when betting on NFL games, which is why I’ve taken the time to go over the lines and predict some winners for every contest in Week 4.

There are certainly a handful of games that stick out as much better plays than others, especially with the bookmakers getting a stronger feel for the strengths and weaknesses of each team faster than the general public.

Let’s take a look at my projected winners against the spread, followed by a closer look at the contests that you should feel very confident about backing this week.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Despite not being a playoff team or winning more than seven games in any of the last four seasons, the Rams almost always play their NFC West rivals tough enough to cover.

The Rams have been something of a nemesis for San Francisco backers in recent years, as St. Louis is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Niners. I expect that record to move to 6-1 after its impending Thursday Night Football showdown.

San Fran is clearly suffering from a post-Super Bowl hangover and dealing with a myriad of injuries to players such as Vernon Davis and Patrick Willis, both of whom are listed as questionable per ESPN. The defense—once regarded as the strongest unit in the league—is particularly decimated by injury.

Opposing teams aren’t afraid to attack the teeth of this squad and have gashed the Niners for an average of 139.7 yards per game on the ground. They are faring a bit better against the aerial attack, holding opponents to just 197.3 yards per game in that respect.

Expect St. Louis to use a balanced offensive attack to keep this one close, with the final score likely being decided by a field goal or less.

If you take the points, you are almost guaranteed to win, so fire away on this one.

 

New England Patriots (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

It’s not often the Pats go into a nationally televised game as underdogs, but it seems the betting public is ready to give up on this team after a mediocre start.

Although New England is 3-0, it is just 1-2 ATS and struggled to beat two lousy AFC East teams before getting it together against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.

The Falcons have had a much rougher go, getting upset by the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 to move to 1-2 and closer to desperation mode. They will be in a full-scale panic after the Pats become the next underdog to drop them in the Georgia Dome.

Tom Brady is finally on the same page with his ragtag receiving corps and could be getting a big boost—especially in the red zone—as ESPN's Chris Mortensen (h/t Rotoworld) reported on SportcCenter Wednesday that superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski is likely to play on Sunday.

The New England defense is holding up its end of the bargain and has allowed just 34 points over the first three games. In addition, Tony Gonzalez is struggling, Roddy White hasn't been 100 percent lately and Steven Jackson is still out. As long as the Pats are able to keep Atlanta out of the end zone, there is a good chance the Pats not only win this one, but also win it in blowout fashion.

The Falcons are on the ropes already and will be fully exposed in this Sunday Night Football contest.

 

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Cardinals are catching something of a break here, as the Bucs have decided to forge ahead into the Mike Glennon era. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter and Ed Werder, Josh Freeman was moved to the bench on Wednesday and his rookie counterpart has been thrust into the starting role.

Freeman has been anything but great this year, but he’s still a better option than an unproven third-round draft pick that had a lackluster preseason showing.

The Cardinals defense is likely to pounce on the inexperienced Glennon. Nevertheless, Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano told Adam Kohler of baynews9.com that he believes this decision gives his team the best chance to win.

I’m inclined to disagree with him, as the former Rutgers head coach is likely making a decision with his job in mind. He’s a mere 7-12 at the helm of the Bucs and in grave danger of missing the playoffs at 0-3 this season.

That outcome can be rationalized as part of a rebuilding effort so long as Glennon makes some strides in 2013.

Unfortunately, those aren’t likely to come right off the bat—especially not against an Arizona defense that features a strong pass rush and above-average secondary.

It’s best to back the Cardinals in this one, as they look to move to .500 on Sunday. Getting points is simply icing on the cake of one of the week’s top bets.