NFL Picks Week 1: Predictions for Most Eye-Popping Lines of Opening Weekend
NFL opening weekend is here and with it arrives the return of spreads and odds for each matchup on the schedule.ย
While most odds are not all that exciting with the NFL experiencing a decent amount of parity, there are some lines that pop off the paper for either their extraordinary spread or their minimal spread in a game between two teams not widely-considered to be close in talent.
Below are some of the most interesting spreads that should catch the eyes of fans everywhere for one reason or another, complete with a full prediction.
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Note: All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.
New England Patriots (-9) vs. Buffalo Bills
The premise that the New England Patriots would defeat the Buffalo Bills by nine or more points is not all that outlandish, especially given the chance earlier in the week that Buffalo would be starting undrafted rookie quarterback Jeff Tuel.
As ESPN's Adam Schefter revealed, first-round rookie EJ Manuel will be under center instead now that his knee if recovered from a preseason scare:
Interestingly enough, the Patriots dropped 52 points on the Bills the last time the two teams met in Buffalo, but that won't occur again with the Patriots in search of tight end help (per ESPN Boston, Rob Gronkowski won't be back for a few more weeks) and losing Wes Welker this offseason.
New England ranked near the bottom of the barrel in pass defense last season and Manuel looked sharp through two preseason games, throwing for 99 yards and two touchdowns while completing 79 percent of his passes.
It would be unwise to count out Buffalo at home just as much as it would be to count out Tom Brady. This one has upset potential, but the more experienced New England should come out on top. Just not by a ridiculous nine points.
Prediction: Patriots 35, Bills 28
Oakland Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
Normally a spread such as the one here is reserved for that of a college football contest. The good folks in charge of crafting the lines clearly believe there is a major talent gap between the Indianapolis Colts and Oakland Raiders.
When looking at the line the question becomes, "Are the Colts really that much better than the Raiders?"
Yes, yes they are.
Oakland is in the middle of a serious rebuild and is starting Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, who made his way to the NFL via the supplemental draft two years ago. Andrew Luck and the Colts are on their way to competing for a second-consecutive playoff berth as the roster continues to improve.
It really boils down to thisโthe Colts are at home, where they won seven games a year ago, and continue to add talent both through free agency (LaRon Landry) and the draft (Bjoern Werner) while Oakland is on the road, where it lost seven games last season, and has added aging veterans (Charles Woodson) and backups from other teams to act as starters (Pat Sims).
Heck, look at it this wayโthe Raiders would be competitive with Luck at quarterback. That's what a difference-maker he is on his own.
So yes, the line here is outrageous.
It's not high enough.
Prediction: Colts 35, Raiders 23
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
The line here between Green Bay and San Francisco is not all that outrageous until stopping to realize it was just last postseason that Colin Kaepernick ran wild all over the Packers for 444 yards in a 45-31 rout.
But this is the NFL, and clearly the lines say either the 49ers will regress or the Packers are going to be red-hot on the pursuit of revenge.
We say a combination of both. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had all offseason to study his mistakes and the organization as a whole has spent the entire time game-planning ferociously for this matchup in particular.
The difference-maker here is a bruiser in rookie running back Eddie Lacy for Green Bay. It's something the Packers have lacked for a few years and failed to get out of Cedric Benson last season.
With Lacy handling carries and matching the physicality of the 49ers defense, the Green Bay offense will not be so one-dimensional throughout. In a shootout where Rodgers has time to throw, he'll beat the odds every time.
Prediction: Packers 38, 49ers 30
Follow B/R's Chris Roling on Twitter for more news and analysisย @Chris_Roling
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