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Updated Playoff Odds for Every MLB Contender Post-Waiver Deadline, Call-Ups

Chris StephensJun 7, 2018

With one month to go in the MLB season, the playoff race is slowly taking shape.ย Players on 40-man rosters as of Sunday are eligible for postseason play.

Some teams made multiple moves through August to improve their rosters, while others stood pat.

So where does each contender stand after the waiver trade deadline and September call-ups?ย Here's a look at each contender and its odds of making the playoffs.

Washington Nationals

1 of 16

The Washington Nationals sit 6.5 games out of the second spot in the wild card and have been playing great as of late. They've won seven of their last 10 and nine of their last 12.

However, time is getting short for the Nationals, as there are only 26 games left in the season. The next 20 games are against divisional opponents, which they have a 28-28 record against.ย After that, the team ends the season on the road against two playoff contenders in the St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Washington made no trades and didn't make up any impact call-ups. It's fought hard to get back in the race, but it will come up short.ย 

Chance at Making Playoffs:ย 1 percent

Atlanta Braves

2 of 16

The Atlanta Braves have dealt with a lot of injuries this year, but they still find ways to win games. They currently sit at 83-53, which is the best record in the league.

Atlanta made no trades in August, and its call-ups were more to give rest days to the regular starters. The Braves did, however, sign Elliot Johnson after he was released by the Kansas City Royals. And he made his presence felt in a big game against the Cleveland Indians on August 27, garnering the only two RBI of the night in a 2-0 Braves win.

They have a 14-game lead in the NL East, and there is no chance the Nationals are going to catch them. The real battle for them is getting healthy and trying to win home-field advantage.

Washington is Atlanta's only remaining opponent with a winning record. Other teams the Braves will face are the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.

There's no way they aren't making the playoffs

Chance of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

Pittsburgh Pirates

3 of 16

The Pittsburgh Pirates were the biggest dealers through August. They acquired Justin Morneau, Marlon Byrd and John Buck for the stretch run.

Although they did give up a few good prospects in the Byrd-Buck deal, the Pirates showed they are serious about making a run at the title this year.

Pittsburgh is currently tied with St. Louis at 79-57 and is desperately trying to win the division, not wanting to be relegated to the wild card.ย Left on the Pirates' schedule are the Brewers, Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Cubs, Padres and Cincinnati Reds. It's a tough schedule, but the Pirates have been resilient all year.

There's no question they'll make the playoffs. The only question is, will they win the division?

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

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Cincinnati Reds

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The Cincinnati Reds are also sitting in good position, 3.5 games out in the NL Central and six games ahead in the wild card.

The Reds didn't make any moves on the trade market and made no real impact call-ups.ย They've got a good crop of players already in Cincinnati, and that's who they need to go with.

The only reason the Reds aren't at 100 percent is the fact that they have a tough schedule the rest of the way. Of their remaining games, 13 are against the Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Pirates. Outside of that, they have has the Brewers, Cubs, Houston Astros and Mets.

The team could choke and collapse like the Boston Red Sox and Braves did in 2011. But I don't see that happening.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 98 percent

St. Louis Cardinals

5 of 16

Like the Pirates, the St. Louis Cardinals are all but locked into the playoffs and are focusing on the NL Central crown.ย 

St. Louis did acquire John Axford for the bullpen, which has been one of the Cardinals' weaknesses this year. He'll come in and be the seventh- or eighth-inning reliever for them right away.

In the end, that could be what it comes down to for the Cards.ย 

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

Arizona Diamondbacks

6 of 16

The Arizona Diamondbacks are pretty much in the same boat as the Nationals. They're currently six games back in the wild card, and time is running out on them.

What hurts the D-backs is that they still have seven games left against the Dodgers, who are fighting for home-field advantage.

Arizona started out the season so well, but it let the Dodgers catch and pass it in the NL West.ย The Diamondbacks also made no trades and didn't call up an impact player yet.

Chance of Making Playoffs:ย 1 percent

Los Angeles Dodgers

7 of 16

Currently the hottest team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers are now in a battle with the Braves for home-field advantage.

The team acquired Michael Young from the Phillies, giving it an impact bat to come off the bench. It also signed Edinson Volquez and Brian Wilson.ย All three will make an impact for the Dodgers in some form.

It's not a question of if the Dodgers make the playoffs, but what seed will they be. They've been real good the last 60 games, and their record shows it.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

Boston Red Sox

8 of 16

The Boston Red Sox currently lead the AL East by 5.5 games and are showing no signs of slowing down.

The biggest move they made was calling up top prospect Xander Bogaerts to the big leagues. He's going to get a chance to prove himself late in the season.

Boston has (by far) the toughest schedule remaining of any contender. Only five of its remaining games are against teams with losing records. Left on the schedule are the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers. It's not an easy schedule, but it will get the Red Sox ready for the playoffs.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

Tampa Bay Rays

9 of 16

The Tampa Bay Rays currently hold the second spot in the wild card by three games.ย 

They acquired David DeJesus, which is huge considering he can man all three outfield positions.ย The biggest move the Rays made outside of that was re-signing Delmon Young to a minor league contract. He was called up on Sunday and could be huge down the stretch.

Tampa Bay has 13 of its remaining games against teams with losing records, but 11 of its final 14 games are against the Rangers, Yankees and Orioles.

If the Rays make the playoffs, it will be because they earned it.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 40 percent

Baltimore Orioles

10 of 16

The Baltimore Orioles are once again in the thick of things in the American League. They currently sit three games back in the wild card and will have a chance to make up that ground against the Rays.

The O's were active all throughout the non-waiver and waiver trading period.ย Michael Morse is the latest addition, and he's already come up big, going 2-for-4 in his debut with the team on Sunday.

You have to like the Orioles' chances of catching the Rays, although 14 games remain against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

However, what gives them a big advantage is the fact that they close the season with the Red Sox, who will likely be resting their starters for the playoffs.

Still, I'm going to leave the O's with the same percentage as Tampa Bay.

Chances of Making Playoffs: 40 percent

New York Yankees

11 of 16

I'll admit that I didn't think the New York Yankees stood a chance at the playoffs after seeing Robinson Cano was their only returning Opening Day starter.

Due to injuries for much of the season, the Yankees have been without their best players. But they're still in the thick of things, sitting 3.5 games back for the second spot in the wild card.

The biggest move the team made was signing Mark Reynolds, who was let go by Cleveland. Since joining New York, he is 12-for-42 with two home runs and seven RBI.

The Yankees have also started getting healthy, as Curtis Granderson and Derek Jeter have rejoined the roster.

With nine of their final 12 games against teams with losing records (including the final three against Houston), the Yankees have a legitimate shot at sneaking into the playoffs.ย However, I don't see them jumping over the Rays and Orioles to make such a move.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 10 percent

Detroit Tigers

12 of 16

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone about their business this year and are leading the AL Central once again.

The best move they made in August was releasing Jose Valverde, who was again struggling out of the bullpen. They also called up prized prospect Nick Castellanos, who will be auditioning for a starting spot next year.

Give the Tigers credit. Justin Verlander hasn't been the ace he once was, but Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez have done great at picking up the slack.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

Cleveland Indians

13 of 16

The Cleveland Indians have a slim chance at making the playoffs, and they improved their chances with the acquisition of Jason Kubel. Kubel may have struggled this year, but his bat can go off at any time.

The Indians currently sit 3.5 games back in the wild card. They still play the Orioles, Mets, Royals, Astros, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins. With six of the games being against the Royals, the Indians can not only eliminate them from playoff contention, but they can also gain ground on the AL East teams who will battle each other through the end of the year.

The final 10 games of the year are against the Astros, White Sox and Twins, who the Indians are a combined 22-9 against. If they're within three games with 10 games to go, the Indians have to be the favorites to take home a playoff spot.

Chances of Making Playoffs: 7ย percent

Kansas City Royals

14 of 16

How are the Kansas City Royals still in the playoff race? Somehow, they keep winning games and are giving teams fits.

The Royals acquired Emilio Bonifacio and Jamey Carroll to help shore up second base, although neither has played there much.

Kansas City will see a healthy dose of the Seattle Mariners, Detroit and Cleveland to end the year. It still has a small sliver of hope, sitting 5.5 back games in the wild-card race.

If the Royals are going to make the playoffs, things will have to go their way.ย 

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 3 percent

Texas Rangers

15 of 16

The Texas Rangers finally got Alex Rios during the waiver period, and he's come up big thus far. He took over for Nelson Cruz, who was suspended in the Biogenesis scandal, and has batted .263 with seven RBI.

The Rangers are a lock to make the playoffs, but they are only one game up in the AL West. If they're not careful, they could be relegated to the AL Wild Card Game once again.

Texas finishes up with seven games against the Astros and Los Angeles Angels. Needless to say, I don't see the team blowing its chances in the last week of the season.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

Oakland Athletics

16 of 16

Billy Beane has done it once again for the Oakland Athletics. The A's find themselves one game out in the AL West and six games up (and in the first spot) in the wild card.

The biggest move the team made was reacquiring Kurt Suzuki to help with the catching duties. He'll bring much-needed leadership to the clubhouse and be key in the stretch run.

I honestly don't see the A's losing out on the playoffs. They have six games left with Texas, but the rest are against the Astros, Twins, Mariners and Angels. That's a schedule I could live with.

Chances of Making Playoffs:ย 100 percent

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