Week 1 Picks Against the Spread for Every NFL Game

The beauty of Week 1 of the NFL season is that every team and every person has an equal chance for a successful season. 

Yes, even this guy.

The 2013 season is bursting with opportunity, money and, most of all, redemption. Last year's ho-hum record means absolutely nothing.

Basically, I'm the Kansas City Chiefs.

But let's not worry ourselves with the details; let's worry about the Week 1 picks against the spread. 

All lines were provided by Footballlocks.com. All picks are in caps. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (+7.5) vs. Denver Broncos

Call it disrespect. Say the Baltimore Ravens have a chip on their shoulder. Whatever you want to call it, there is no way I'm laying seven-and-a-half points with the reigning champs.

Quarterback Peyton Manning had the team to win the Lombardi trophy, but Joe Flacco led his boys to the title. And let's not act like losing wide receiver Anquan Boldin is the end of the world.

The Ravens still have praise-worthy running back Ray Rice to ease the pressure on the passing offense. And, as mentioned above, Flacco has proven he can get it done.

For all the talk about the Ravens' losses, the defense stole the Denver Broncos' second-best defender, defensive end Elvis Dumervil. He'll line up with the still-dominant Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs. You may remember Suggs as the 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Oh, and the Broncos won't have some linebacker named Von Miller. To recap, that means the Broncos will be without their best two defenders from last year, one of whom will be chasing Manning.

I'm going to look into the Ravens money line.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10) vs. Buffalo Bills

Everyone has been so focused on the New England Patriots' losses in the receiving department, they've failed to remember the starting quarterback.

Last I checked, it's still Tom Brady. And I checked while writing this slide. I'm thorough like that.

Go back and watch some of the preseason tape. There's Brady throwing undrafted receivers open and moving the chains behind a powerful running attack. 

The offense will be fine. 

As for the Buffalo Bills, head coach Doug Marrone has named an exciting-but-still-a-rookie E.J. Manuel as his starting quarterback.

That rookie quarterback gets to play against what will be a surprisingly good defense. 

What do the kids say these days? "Long odds, don't care?" 

Yea, something like that. Lay the points.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

I didn't hear a thing about Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt all offseason. Ultimately, that's what swung me toward the Titans getting seven points.

Britt is a top-tier wideout who has been too busy with his off-the-field shenanigans to reach his potential. If he can give beleaguered quarterback Jake Locker 80 percent of his capability, it'll open up the field for the blazing Kendall Wright in the slot, which means easy tosses for Locker.

Additionally, the Titans' solid offensive line and standout tackles will limit the Steelers' pass rush. Even the best secondary (which the Steelers don't have) can't cover forever.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will find plenty of holes to keep the Steelers on top, but can he carry seven points on his own? Not with Isaac Redman running the ball.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints will be better thanks to the return of head coach Sean Payton.

But I've never heard about Payton's incredible defensive tactics. And even if he was an expert defensive tactician, there's only so much that can be done with the Saints roster. 

Yet, somehow, the oddsmakers still felt this was an even matchup.

While the Atlanta Falcons might not be a great defensive team, they're decent. 

That means that quarterback Drew Brees won't just have to outduel Matt Ryan, he'll have to dominate him. That seems unlikely when the latter gets to play pitch and catch with Roddy White, Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez.

Oh, and once the Falcons grab the lead, they can salt away the game with the most underrated acquisition of the offseason—running back Steven Jackson.

To recap, if you pick the Falcons, you get a just-as-powerful offense, a better defense and the points. What am I missing here?

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) vs. New York Jets

Welcome to this week's version of what will become a weekly segment—betting against the New York Jets.

Or, simply put, how to make money without thinking.

The entire season will be a challenge for Vegas to find a number that will entice me to bet on the Jets. I'm not sure where that spread will land, but it certainly isn't three.

Granted, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the NFL's biggest wild cards (pun intended). They are as likely to be a playoff team as they are to be in the market for a new quarterback.

And they're on the road. That's how little respect I have for the Jets, especially when they have to cover wide receiver Vincent Jackson. And New York's best cornerback from the past few years will be wearing pewter and red.

Try again, Vegas.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Maybe the public hasn't caught on that the Kansas City Chiefs will a much different team. Maybe Vegas is trying to hook new "clients" by giving them an easy one.

Whatever the cause may be, I'll accept this gift. 

The Chiefs have a motivated quarterback who spent the first half of last season building a 104.1 rating. Additionally, new head coach Andy Reid's shorter pass-based offense should only help Alex Smith's cause for immediate success.

Smith has proven to be an efficient passer when asked to make the short-to-intermediate throws. Plus, running back Jamaal Charles and slot receiver Dexter McCluster give him two weapons to take those easy tosses for big plays.

Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars don't have much reason for optimism in the immediate future. Their foundation-building offseason will provide long-term benefits, including a high pick in the next draft.

But it definitely won't provide enough points to worry about a three-and-a-half point spread. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. CHICAGO BEARS (-3)

The Pittsburgh game gave me pause; this game gave me heartburn. 

Simply put, do not, under any circumstances, include this game in a parlay. 

Both teams have a lot to like and few glaring weaknesses. Normally, that means take the points, but there's something about the Chicago Bears hosting quarterback Andy Dalton in the Windy City that feels right. 

Think about it.

Both teams can run the ball, although the Bears have the advantage (not arguable). Both teams can play defense, with maybe the Cincinnati Bengals getting a slight edge due to more proven commodities (very arguable).

So it will likely come down to the quarterbacks. And don't you feel better about Jay Cutler slinging it to Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Forte than you do about Dalton, even if he does have A.J. Green?

Exactly. 

Well, maybe. 

Miami Dolphins vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (PK)

So you're saying I get the better team at home without paying the three-point home-field tax?

Sign me up.

Yes, the Miami Dolphins do have the receiving advantage thanks to wide receiver Josh Gordon's suspension. But the Cleveland Browns' ferocious outside-linebacking rotation will make new left tackle Jonathan Martin's day and, in turn, quarterback Ryan Tannehill's a nightmare.

It won't help that Cleveland will stifle Miami's rushing game. Running back Lamar Miller isn't Reggie Bush, and the Browns are too tough up the middle to be easily beaten.

Breakout candidate Trent Richardson will keep the Miami defense honest so that quarterback Brandon Weeden can capitalize on his preseason-spawned confidence. Even if you don't buy Weeden's improvement, they won't need many points to bring home the win. 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers

We can boil this game down to two questions.

First, how will the Carolina Panthers move the ball?

The running game will be relying on a running back who peaked in 2008 since Jonathan Stewart is out. And quarterback Cam Newton will be attempting to locate holes between Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner and Early Thomas.

Good luck with that.

Next, how do the Panthers stop Russell Wilson? 

The secondary is starting Charles Godfrey and Mike Mitchell at the safety spots, so shutting down the passing attack isn't an option. Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei and linebacker Luke Kuechly will help slow down running back Marshawn Lynch, but the offense is too potent for Carolina to handle. 

I lied. There's a third question.

Why only three points?

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+5) vs. St. Louis Rams

If it had been three points, or maybe even four, this pick would have been different. 

As it stands, five is too many points for me to place my trust in St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford. That'd be like banking on an infant to walk just because you bought him some baby Jordans. 

I need to see it first. 

However, I am willing to bet that Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald abuses an overrated secondary with a competent quarterback. He's still the same guy who posted five straight 1,000-yard seasons, and cornerback Cortland Finnegan is still the same guy who ranked as the 86th-best cornerback last year, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

See? That's why five points has such a nice ring to it.

Minnesota Vikings vs. DETROIT LIONS (-5)

You've seen it everywhere by now, but that doesn't change the facts.

With fullback Jerome Felton, all-everything running back Adrian Peterson averaged 6.9 yards per carry.

Without him, he averaged 4.6. 

That's not good news for the Minnesota Vikings, who will be without Felton's services for three games, especially when the Detroit Lions have looked so tough against the run all preseason.

That leaves the game in the incapable hands of quarterback Christian Ponder. He's unable to attack the Lions' weak back seven, meaning the fearsome Lions front can control the Vikings offense.

Conversely, quarterback Matthew Stafford should be able to take advantage of the Vikings' inexperienced secondary thanks to Calvin Johnson's return. Now, he can be as inaccurate as he wants to be and knows that at least one guy will be able to haul it in.

Oakland Raiders vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5)

Believe me, I'm not wild about laying nine-and-a-half points with the Indianapolis Colts. This "hater" has gone on record stating that the Colts won't be as lucky or good as last year. 

But I can't figure out how this Oakland Raiders team will score. Ever.

If I'm not buying Sam Bradford sight unseen, then how can I possibly put a down payment on the Terrelle Pryor era? And that's before you consider that tackle Jared Veldheer, the only offensive lineman of any note, is out indefinitely. 

It isn't like I said the Colts were going to be pathetic. They still have plenty of weapons, and Luck is a bona fide NFL quarterback. Therefore, they're going to score points.

So for this week, I can overlook a defense that only Rich Rodriguez would love. But I don't have to like it. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

I went back and forth so many times that the answer became obvious: Take the points and the best quarterback in the league.

Check it out.

The San Francisco 49ers still possess a solid defense, but they are breaking in a couple new starters, and linchpin defensive end Justin Smith is a year older. If anyone can figure out how to exploit a defense that was ransacked in the playoffs, it's Aaron Rodgers.

What's scarier is that quarterback Colin Kaepernick was last seen thrashing this very defense. Draft pick Datone Jones will help, but the Green Bay Packers didn't add enough athletes at linebacker to stop the read-option attack.

But in the end, four-and-a-half is a decent number of points, and Rodgers is a great quarterback. Or I'm taking the easy way out.

Don't judge me. 

New York Giants vs. DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5)

Every year seems to be the Dallas Cowboys' year. So why is this one any different?

I don't know, and I don't care. All that matters is that running back DeMarco Murray and the receiving corps are healthy for this game and key contributors to the New York Giants aren't.

The Giants were going to have some growing pains along the defensive line, making the secondary's play even more important. Without injured safety Stevie Brown, the Giants will struggle against Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten.

Plus, the Cowboys' defensive playmakers will be unleashed in the new 4-3 scheme. That doesn't bode well for a running back committee that's already missing half of its man power.

Do I feel great about betting on Tony Romo in a prime-time game? Of course...not.

But sometimes the stars align and some other motivational garbage. Don't overthink it. Injuries matter in the NFL, and that extra half-point isn't worth worrying about.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5)

When I first saw this line, I laughed. How easy is this pick?

Then I read Matt Miller's piece about how unstoppable Chip Kelly's offense will be in the NFL. Basically, defensive coordinators can scheme all they want, but without ultra-athletic and intelligent safeties, defenses are at the mercy of the read-option attack.

That's scary considering the Washington Redskins' back line. Rookie Bacarri Rambo has been victimized multiple times this preseason while Brandon Meriweather has racked up frequent flier miles traveling to each new gig.

Still, the Philadelphia Eagles defense would have difficulty stopping a Pop Warner offense. And the Redskins have had a little success running the read-option in the past thanks to a certain quarterback who will be overjoyed to return to the field.

Even if both offenses prove unstoppable, I'll take Robert Griffin III and outside linebacker Brian Orakpo over Michael Vick and outside linebacker Brandon Graham. 

HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) vs. San Diego Chargers

Do I actually need to break this down for you? How confident are you in the San Diego Chargers' ability to win this game? 

Heck, what about their ability to keep it close?

The Chargers have no one on offense who should scare the Houston Texans. Actually, they don't have anyone on offense who should scare the Philadelphia Eagles (Burn!). 

So we've determined that the Chargers aren't likely to score.

Sure, the defense has a nice linebacking unit, but unless the defense plans on holding the improved Texans offense to three points, it doesn't matter.

Enjoy this week. Eventually, Vegas will catch on.