PGA Championship 2013 Leaderboard: Live Day 3 Look-in and Overall Predictions

Jason Dufner stands two days away from winning his first major championship.

The 36-hole leader is currently on the practice range at the 2013 PGA Championship, as the morning non-contenders round out their day at Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, N.Y. On a morning that saw the likes of Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods tee off as a majority of the country was just finishing breakfast, the entire field continues to look up at a man whose mainstream notoriety comes from an Internet meme.

At nine-under, Dufner holds a two-stroke lead over Adam Scott, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar. The 36-year-old Cleveland native carded a course record and tied the overall major championship record Friday by shooting a seven-under 63 to go barreling ahead of the pack.

Dufner broke a course record previously held by Ben Hogan, Curtis Strange and Webb Simpson, who—in an odd twist of fate—carded his 64 earlier in Round 2.

That said, those with a keen sense of history know this isn't the first time Dufner has held a lead. In fact, this is the third straight PGA Tour season in which he's sat atop the leaderboard through 36 holes at a major.

Neither of the two previous opportunities ended well. So it will be interesting to see what Dufner does, with so many notable names sitting behind him.

With the moments waning until the leaders hit the course, let's check in with the action and preview what's to come in Saturday's third round.

Round Information

Date: Saturday, Aug. 10 (ongoing)

Where: Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, N.Y.

TV: TNT (until 2 p.m ET), CBS (2-7 p.m. ET)

Stream: PGA.com for both marquee groups and Par 3 coverage (live until 7 p.m. ET)

Round 3 Preview and Predictions

The first two rounds of this event saw 27 players walk into the weekend under par. In contrast, only three players combined to finish the U.S. Open and Open Championship in red numbers. And Dufner's nine-under score through two rounds matches that of Scott when he won the Masters.

Suffice it to say things have been surprisingly easy thus far. Rains on both Thursday and Friday softened a course layout that was expected to bring speedy greens and difficult roughs, creating almost a mid-tier tournament feel. The last time Oak Hill hosted the PGA Championship (a decade ago), Shaun Micheel won at four-under; that might not even be a top-10 score this week.

Based on how things have gone this morning, though, it finally feels as if major championship golf has arrived to Oak Hill.

Other than a complete outlier round from Dustin Johnson, who shot five-under Saturday after barely making the cut, the course has finally started resembling the championship course we expected. Many of the morning golfers spent their days fighting just to stay at level-par, with the weather finally allowing for some hardening of the fairways and greens.

Assuming clear skies stick throughout the day—and they should, based on the Weather.com forecast—the course should only get more difficult as Round 3 goes along. While the world's best won't be scrambling for cover and hoping to just get by like they were at Muirfield or at Merion, the abundance of low scores should finally cease Saturday afternoon. 

As mentioned in the introduction, that's what makes Dufner's round so interesting. He and playing partner Scott will be playing a rather worn-out course by the time they tee off. There won't be much of a difference between how it plays versus the other leaders, but even the loss of just one stroke could play a critical factor heading into Sunday.

Remember, Dufner's second round was an anomaly. There will be some natural regression to the mean. He's likely not to get the most favorable roll of the entire tournament Saturday, and he's not the type of player who goes low consistently.

That's  fine should the remainder of the field hover around par—but not if one of his fellow leaderboard inhabitants go low.

Here's a fun fact: Shooting a best-ever round at a major championship is predictive of absolutely nothing. ESPN's Justin Ray has the slightly bemusing sample:

So let's not chalk this tournament up to Dufner quite yet—even if I'm fairly certain he'll have the lead through 54 holes as well. He's coughed up two leads previously halfway through an event, and he had a particularly heartbreaking collapse at the 2011 PGA Championship.

The man most likely to put pressure on Dufner is quite obviously Scott. The 32-year-old Australian, who finally got over the hump to earn a green jacket this year, has shown a consistent ability to go low on this course. Scott had 11 birdies through the first two rounds, a figure that was matched only by Justin Rose, another luminous figure lurking in the background.

What's been notable about Scott is the way he somehow wound up at two-under Friday despite not having his best game. The ever-consistent righty carded an uncharacteristic three bogeys, but he kept his cool and didn't implode.

If you were into the narrative sort of thing, one could say a major championship finally calmed down the yips the talented Aussie always seemed to have when staring down the rest of the field.

Elsewhere, the two other notable guys who could make a run at Dufner are Rose and Henrik Stenson. Rose, who won this year's U.S. Open, has had a bit of trouble staying away from over-par scores this week. Had it not been for a disappointing five bogeys, he'd be standing with a comfortable lead thanks to 11 birdies. Inconsistencies have always been a part of the Englishman's game, but he's also a guy who could go super low at any moment.

Stenson is simply playing some of the best golf of his life. The 37-year-old Swede had three consecutive top-five finishes heading into this event, including a career-best second-place outing at The Open Championship. Had it not been for Mickelson playing one of the best rounds of his career, the Claret Jug may well have been Stenson's. 

With a bogey-less round Friday, he showed a solid understanding of how this course works. If scores do trend a bit higher in Round 3, don't be surprised if Stenson makes a strong push.

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