Right Mix Of Teammates, Opponents Could Help Bolts Reach Promised Land

When the New England Patriots were expected to get to the Super Bowl, they did it. The same went with the Indianapolis Colts, and even the Seattle Seahawks.

The San Diego Chargers? They're still trying.

Yep, they've won the past three AFC West championships. However, they've been one of the few remaining teams that have been consistently penned to be a Super Bowl contender and fallen short. The closest they've come in their recent run was when they lost to then-undefeated New England in the 2007-08 playoffs.

Now, those same pundits that have penned San Diego the past few years are using more of a pencil. It's probably because they don't know how this team will fare. In fact, it seems nobody knows.

But I'd still pick them to win the division and make a run in the postseason, partly because of its AFC West counterparts.

The Chargers became the third team in the past five seasons to finish 8-8 and make the playoffs. Only one of the previous two teams made the playoffs the next season. That one team was the 2007 New York Giants, which won Super Bowl XLII. If they want to take the sunshine route, they could look toward New York and see that the Giants improved from a mediocre playoff run to win it all a year later.

But here's where the Chargers might be safe. The average team last season won about three more games than the previous season in reaching the playoffs (It was 2.83 in the AFC, 3.00 in the NFC).

So that means Denver, Oakland and Kansas City are being asked to win at least three more games from the previous season to match the Chargers.

Likely? I think not.

The Denver Broncos, which won eight games last season, shouldn't count on winning 11 games with Kyle Orton at quarterback. He didn't do it in Chicago. And their defense, which was toward the bottom in most categories, has to improve.

The Oakland Raiders went 5-11 last season. Winning three more only puts them at .500, which would be a feat in itself; they haven't done that since their Super Bowl XXXVII appearance. They arguably had the worst player selections in the 2009 draft, so they're counting on veterans—that went 5-11 mind you—to improve with technically a new coach.

The Kansas City Chiefs were 2-14 last season. Three more wins is a sign of improvement, but certainly not a playoff spot.

Now although we're asking the other teams in the AFC West to do more work just to match the Chargers, here's the downer for the SoCal franchise: Looking at the past five seasons, they're the only team to make the playoffs three straight times but go backwards in win total.

After a 14-win season, they dropped to 11, then to eight.

San Diego cannot finish 8-8 again and yell, "Here we come South Florida!" They have to close out those nail biting contests that almost came back to hurt them last season. Also, a 6-0 run against the AFC West is very likely. That alone bumps them from 8-8 to 11-5, or maybe 12-4.

If they can get to double digits in wins, it will be tough for the rest of the AFC West to leapfrog them.

But reaching the playoffs is only the first task. They know they have to get the wins in the playoffs to not only satisfy the fan base, but also continue to justify that hiring Norv Turner was the right move.

Improving the running game will help matters. They have about $13 million locked up in LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles this season, so there has to be some production coming from the running back department; they were 20th last season and worst among the AFC West teams. The offense was saved by the passing game, as it was seventh overall.

It appears that they're going to put their hopes on either Kynan Forney or incoming rookie Louis Vasquez to shore up that right guard position and give the ball carriers some extra time. Vasquez might get tapped, considering he was on a pass-happy Texas Tech team, yet the line gave up the fifth fewest sacks in the nation in 2008. However, some signs indicate that it will be up to Forney to lose the spot.

Defensively, the Chargers were 11th overall and first in the division against the run (and it wasn't even close, the other three teams were in the bottom six). Against the pass, they were only better than Seattle. With the impending return of Shawne Merriman, that will likely help matters. But if they can also get help from incoming rookie Larry English, their defense could be a legitimate top-10 contender. English had 31.5 sacks while at Northern Illinois, fifth all-time in the Mid-American Conference.

The team might ride on those two guys, but they'll seek additional support from new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. The NorCal native joined the Chargers in the offseason, and he can explain to them what it takes to get to a Super Bowl; he did it as a player and an assistant coach.

The Chargers have the parts to get it done. And while it's likely they'll make the playoffs, they know they have to be in South Florida as one of the final two teams playing.