2013 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Overvalued Options to Avoid Taking Early

They key to a great fantasy football draft is finding great value, not necessarily collecting the hottest names on the market. 

While Aaron Rodgers (19.35 points per game in 2012) may be going in the first round according to ESPN's average draft position rankings, there's much more value in nabbing a player like Matt Ryan (18.47 points per game) in Round 3 or 4. 

For whatever reason certain players tend to be overvalued every year, and fantasy managers tend to hurt themselves by overdrafting them based on name value. Here are three players who are simply being overvalued right now according to ESPN's average draft positions. 

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Average ESPN Draft Position Rank: 7

Look, we get it. Rodgers is widely considered the game's best quarterback, and he's hitting his prime with a Packers team full of weapons. There's no questioning that he's an elite fantasy quarterback. 

Here's the problem—taking a quarterback in the first leaves you with fewer chances to grab the elite running backs in the game and the top wide receivers. Despite the recent trend towards going elsewhere early in drafts, stud running backs still carry the day in fantasy football. 

Because the featured back is becoming an extinct beast in the NFL game, guys like Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch should still dominate the first-round landscape. 

While 2012 numbers can't be taken as the only barometer, they illustrate the risk you take when drafting a quarterback like Rodgers in the first round. According to ESPN's ADP, if you were to take Rodgers in a 12-team league, theoretically you'd be waiting until pick No. 18 to grab a running back. 

That would leave you with Matt Forte (11.13 ppg in 2012) and Stevan Ridley (11.9 ppg in 2012) as your choices for a top running back. Meanwhile, had you waited on a quarterback, options like Tom Brady (20.5 ppg) and Cam Newton (19.31 ppg) would be available. 

Pick up the stud running backs while you can. 

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

Average ESPN Draft Position Rank: 25

Make no mistake—Demaryius Thomas is one of the most physically gifted and talented wide receivers in the league. His combination of size and athleticism is usually reserved for video games.

But in 2013, his actual on-field value to his team will outweigh his fantasy value to owners. 

Thomas shined in the Denver Broncos offense with Eric Decker playing opposite him and Peyton Manning at the helm. However, those two dominated the ball. He saw 141 targets while Decker saw 123 and Tamme saw 85. 

That's a favorable distribution for Thomas owners. He was fantasy football's No. 5 receiver last year. 

Now you have to add Wes Welker to the mix. The crafty slot receiver has always been a high-volume receiver for New England and will provide Manning with yet another reliable target to throw to. 

Thomas is still a great receiver who is going to put up plenty of points, but drafting him before guys like Jimmy Graham (who should be the undisputed top tight end this year) or Victor Cruz, who are bound to be the focal point of their respective offenses, is a risky proposition.

Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Average ESPN Draft Position Rank: 29

At some point during your draft, you're going to be sweating it out as the seconds tick down on your timer frantically trying to make a selection before the computer auto-picks someone who is sure to sink your season. 

It's at moments like these you'll be tempted to pick some of the tried and true fantasy football studs who may or may not be over the hill like, say, Andre Johnson. Don't do it. 

Johnson is still being selected in the second to third round in most ESPN fantasy drafts, even though his days of being a top fantasy wide receiver are likely behind him. 

Yes, he's coming off of a massive season. His 112-catch, 1,598-yard season was nothing short of great. But he only scored four touchdowns, and it was the first time that he played a full 16 games in three years. 

Plus, he was feast or famine for much of the season, only scoring double-digit points seven times. 

At 32 years old, Johnson isn't going to get any more healthy. The injury concern is always going to be there, and the Texans' heavy reliance on Arian Foster means Johnson's red-zone targets aren't likely to increase. 

With younger, more reliable options like Randall Cobb and Cruz still available, Johnson is no longer the must-have stud that he once was.