2013 Fantasy Football: Buy, Sell Stock Report for Preseason Week 1

The 2013 Hall of Fame Game is in the books, which means the preseason is officially underway.

Not only will the rest of the NFL soon follow the lead of the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins and get their exhibition schedules rolling, but the beginning of the preseason also brings with it another event.

Draft season in fantasy football is quickly ramping up across the land. Leagues are gathering online and in local watering holes to select their squads for the upcoming campaign.

One absolutely vital requirement in having a successful draft is knowing the latest news from training camps around the National Football League, as well as how that news affects the fantasy stock of the players.

To assist fantasy owners in this regard, here's a look at some players across the NFL whose stock has either risen or fallen, why that fantasy stock is on the move and whether these players merit a longer look on draft day ("buy") or should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism ("sell").

Stock Up: Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy may be the only player on this list whose stock has gone down and then back up in only the past week or so.

First came reports of fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin outperforming Lacy early in camp. Then, as Dan Hanzus of NFL.com reported, a photo of Lacy that seemed to indicate the second-round pick was out of shape set off a social media firestorm.

The Packers quickly dispelled the notion that Lacy was "fat," and then he squashed the rumor that Franklin was outperforming him in camp. 

As Bob McGinn of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes, Lacy was far and away the team's most effective back in Saturday's Green vs. White scrimmage.

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"He's going to be a huge weapon for us," quarterback B.J. Coleman said after watching Lacy carry eight times for 65 yards (8.1 average). "First time out. Environment like that. I thought he did a great job. It's nice to have him back there with you. He runs the ball hard. He's a very strong man."

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Granted, there's still an entire preseason ahead, but if Saturday's scrimmage was any indication, then Lacy will be able to hold off James Starks (who entered the game after Lacy) and Franklin (who managed only 17 yards on seven carries) for the starting job in Green Bay.

Even as the starter, it's important to keep in mind that Lacy would be the lead back on a passing team. However, given the high demand for running backs early in fantasy drafts, his sixth-round price tag in 12-team fantasy football leagues, according to My Fantasy League, and his not inconsiderable upside, he is a viable fantasy RB3 and a decent RB2 if you're the type of brave soul who eschews the backfield early on draft day.

Verdict: Buy

Stock Down: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

It's been more than just one recent event that sent New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's fantasy tumbling.

In fact, it's been very much a cumulative effect.

The departures of wide receiver Wes Welker and running back Danny Woodhead. The release of tight end Aaron Hernandez after he was arrested on murder charges. The uncertain future of fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski.

All of these personnel losses have combined to leave many pundits wondering who Tom Brady is going to throw the ball to in 2013, and that, in return, has caused Brady's ranking among quarterbacks to fall.

Brady himself admitted those players will be missed in 2013 when speaking with Adam Kaufman of The Boston Globe just before training camp opened.

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You trust in your teammates to do their job so that you can do your job. The best teammates that I’ve ever had, guys like Wes [Welker] or Deion Branch, I never had to worry about and that allowed me to be able to do my job. What that allows me to do is free my mental burden up so that I can focus 100 percent on what I need to do, and that’s what I appreciate about guys like that because they allow me to be the best that I can be.

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Brady's ADP has dropped more than two full rounds in the past month, and he's presently being drafted a lot closer to the bottom of the top 10 quarterbacks than the top.

However, as fantasy owners are often prone to do, Brady's fantasy funeral may be a touch premature.

Granted, there have been several big losses, but it's not as if the cupboard is totally bare. Free-agent acquisition Danny Amendola is capable of doing many of the same things Welker did. Julian Edelman (a favorite of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels) is back after an injury-marred 2012. Running back Shane Vereen's versatility is drawing raves in training camp and smacks of a more athletic Woodhead.

Also, in Brady, we're talking about a pretty darn good player in his own right who is very adept at running New England's hurry-up attack.

Brady's worst fantasy finish since his ACL tear in 2008 is eighth, which happened the following season.

That's about where he's being drafted among quarterbacks right now, which is a lot closer to his floor than his ceiling.

Verdict: Buy

Stock Up: Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

It's not all that often that a player who tore his ACL in his last game would be on the "stock up" side of an article such as this, but the times they are a-changing.

One year after Adrian Peterson's remarkable comeback from his knee injury, Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III is doing the same thing.

The news regarding the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year's rehab from the injury he suffered in Washington's playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks has been almost universally positive.

In fact, Griffin recently told Will Brinson of CBS Sports that he's ready to up his level of participation in camp.

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I'm ready to move on. You can only do so much in 7-on-7. The completion percentage is there, I feel like the rhythm is there with the guys. Coach [might] tell you something else but obviously I'm ready to move on.

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There's still some nervousness about the knee in fantasy circles, however, as Griffin is presently the ninth quarterback being selected in fantasy football drafts, according to My Fantasy League.

That's two slots lower than Griffin finished in leagues that award six points for passing touchdowns last year, and the former Heisman Trophy winner was a top-five fantasy option in fantasy points per game.

That draft position probably won't change much either, given the depth at the position and the fact that Griffin likely won't see much (if any) preseason action.

At the end of the day, there doesn't appear to be any more risk involved in drafting Griffin than usually comes with picking a quarterback who scrambles a lot, and the potential for top-five upside at a low-end QB1 price makes Griffin a risk worth taking.

Verdict: Buy

Stock Down: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers have a ton of money invested in running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, a fact that has gotten the team lambasted by the media on more than one occasion.

However, as it turns out, having a Plan B in place (expensive though it may be) may not have been such a bad idea.

The 26-year-old Stewart, who missed nearly half of the 2012 season due to injuries, has yet to make it onto the practice field in camp. In fact, Dave Richard of CBS Sports reports the team "has no idea" when Stewart's balky ankles will allow him back onto the field, while Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer passes along word that Stewart could remain on the PUP list for the entire preseason.

This news has sent Stewart's fantasy stock into absolute free fall. The sixth-year veteran was being drafted as a mid-range RB3 only a month or so ago, but now he isn't even being drafted in many leagues, while Williams has been rocketing up draft boards.

It's hard to say how much faith fantasy owners should have in Williams this year, but as things stand today, it isn't difficult at all to see how little fantasy value Stewart has.

After all, he's no good to fantasy owners if he can't get on the field.

Verdict: Sell

Stock Up: Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

There probably isn't a running back in the National Football League whose fantasy draft value is climbing faster than Shane Vereen of the New England Patriots.

That may seem a bit odd for a player who only had 70 total touches in the regular season last year, but that workload is about to go way up.

As Vereen showed last year against the Houston Texans in the playoffs, he's a more-than-capable pass-catcher, and with Danny Woodhead now plying his trade in San Diego, the Patriots are in the market for a new third-down back.

However, as Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald reports, Vereen has been doing much more than that in training camp.

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During camp, we’ve seen Brady utilize Vereen as he would have Kevin Faulk or Woodhead in the past. If he doesn’t see anyone open, he’ll hit Vereen with an outlet pass. Or, he’ll simply swing it to Vereen and let him take off and do his thing.

Vereen, who barely played as a rookie, now appears to be one of Brady’s safety valves during passing situations along with Amendola. But there’s more. Vereen’s versatility allows him to not only line up in the backfield, but also in different wide receiver spots.

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Combine the Patriots' uptempo offense, their need for players to step up after an offseason of attrition in the passing game and Vereen's considerable talents as a receiver, and all the ingredients are there for a breakout season.

Vereen is presently being drafted as a mid-range RB3, but given that Woodhead cracked the top 25 in fantasy leagues that award a point for receptions last year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Vereen could become a viable weekly starter in PPR leagues.

Verdict: Buy, especially in PPR formats

Stock Down: Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets

After the New Orleans Saints traded running back Chris Ivory to the New York Jets during the 2013 NFL draft, many pundits predicted a breakout of sorts for the fourth-year pro.

After all, Ivory has shown flashes of considerable agility and power when given the opportunity, averaging well over five yards a carry in limited duty with the Saints.

With the lead job for Gang Green up in the air, this was going to be Ivory's big break.

There's just one small problem. Ivory has also struggled to stay on the field during his career, and sure enough, the 25-year-old has been sidelined by a hamstring injury in training camp.

Head coach Rex Ryan expressed some frustration with Ivory's injury while speaking with Michael J. Fensom of The Star-Ledger, but also said he hopes to get Ivory back into action soon.

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You get frustrated a little bit because you want to see Big Chris (Ivory) get it going. When the trainers clear him he’ll be ready to roll. He’s champing at the bit to get out there. He’s working extremely hard. You sometimes think hamstring injuries mean a guy is out of shape. This guy has three-percent body fat. You can’t work him hard enough in the weight room. It’s an unfortunate thing he’s had.

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Granted, there's a fair amount of upside present with Ivory, especially given the lack of trustworthy running backs in fantasy football this year.

The problem is Ivory isn't really trustworthy given his injury history and the sad state of the Jets offense, and a player who looked like a sleeper special earlier this summer now smacks of a risky RB3 pick.

Verdict: Sell

Stock Up: DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

It's been an eventful offseason for the wide receivers of the Philadelphia Eagles.

First, starter Jeremy Maclin tore his ACL in practice, ending his season before it started. Then, Riley Cooper created a firestorm of controversy when video of a racial slur he uttered during a concert went viral.

However, the most shocking thing about all of this may very well be that controversy blew through Eagles camp and it didn't involve DeSean Jackson.

With that said, though, it hasn't been completely smooth sailing for the mercurial sixth-year pro, who had 45 catches for 700 yards and two touchdowns last year.

According to Zach Berman of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Jackson injured his toe in practice, although the injury is believed to be minor. That's the first good news the Eagles have gotten in some time, as they desperately need Jackson on the field in Week 1.

With Maclin gone for the year, Jackson is now far and away the team's most proven option in the passing game, and it's fair to expect that to translate to increased targets in Chip Kelly's high-octane offense.

That seems to be what many fantasy owners are predicting as well, as Jackson's draft stock is on the rise.

However, according to My Fantasy League, Jackson is still only an eighth-round pick (in 12-team leagues), being drafted as a low-end fantasy WR3, and there's more than enough upside present to justify that pick.

Verdict: Buy

Stock Down: Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Make no mistake, Torrey Smith of the Baltimore Ravens is one of the more dangerous deep-threat wide receivers in the NFL. His 17.4 yards per reception last year bears that fact out.

However, the offseason hasn't been kind to the third-year pro's fantasy prospects for 2013.

First, Anquan Boldin was traded to the San Francisco 49ers. Then, early in training camp, tight end Dennis Pitta injured his hip and was place on injured reserve. He will miss the entire season. 

That leaves Smith as the most proven option in Baltimore's aerial attack by a country mile, but he told Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun that he's isn't feeling any added pressure to pick up their slack.

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No, I never feel pressure at all. My job doesn't change. Obviously, I expect more out of myself performance-wise whether they were there or not. It's tough to lose Anquan. He was the leader of our group. Pitta, it's an unfortunate injury. We are going to miss him out there. We have a next man up mentality. I think we have some guys who are ready.

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Smith may not be feeling that pressure now, but he's going to once the season starts.

Simply put, defenses are going to focus the lion's share of their attention in the secondary on Smith. With no viable second threat to take that attention away from him, he's headed for a season of near-constant bracket coverage.

Deep safety help is going to make it much more difficult for Smith to do what he does best.

Smith's present average draft position at My Fantasy League is WR23 despite the changes to the Baltimore offense and the fact that he finished several slots lower than that a season ago.

Thanks, but no thanks.

Verdict: Sell

Stock Up: Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

Given that the Cincinnati Bengals already had a capable tight end in Jermaine Gresham, some heads turned when they selected Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert in the first round of April's draft.

Now those heads are simply nodding up and down, because early reports from camp have made the pick look like a wise one.

The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Eifert was one of the stars of practices and that the 2012 Mackey Award winner and quarterback Andy Dalton have developed a quick rapport.

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During the first week of camp, the rookie tight end has pulled down 10 or more catches a day from Andy Dalton in 11-on-11 drills while also showing improvement as a run blocker. With A.J. Green out for all but one practice, the first-round draft pick is definitely Dalton's favorite target.

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Eifert still needs to improve his blocking, and Gresham's presence adds a measure of uncertainty to drafting Eifert in fantasy leagues.

However, Eifert's 13th-round asking price at My Fantasy League makes adding him to your fantasy team a low-risk investment that could pay off big if his offensive role grows as the season progresses.

Eifert's a bit of a lottery ticket pick, but it's one with a better-than-average chance of coming up a winner.

Verdict: Buy

Stock Down: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

There isn't a bigger risk/reward pick in fantasy football this year than New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

When he's on the field, Gronkowski is a dominant player and fantastic fantasy option. Despite the fact that a broken forearm cost him five games last year, the 24-year-old still caught double-digit touchdowns and finished as a top-five player at his position in fantasy football.

However, that "when he's on the field" deal is becoming a huge caveat where Gronk is concerned.

Gronkowski had back surgery in June and has watched training camp in street clothes. The Patriots, of course, have offered very little information about his rehab, but Ben Volin of The Boston Globe recently opined that he believes the most likely outcome is Gronkowski opening the regular season on the physically unable to perform list.

That would cost the fourth-year pro six games—or nearly half of the fantasy football regular season. ESPN's Adam Schefter (via Rotoworld) had better news on Tuesday, stating that "the buzz is positive" about Gronkowski's recovery.

However, the very real possibility of Gronkowski being on the shelf for the first six weeks of the season makes his third-round average draft position at My Fantasy League too high of a price to pay.

Verdict: Sell