Projections for Tiger Woods at PGA Championship 2013 After Bridgestone Win
For any golfer other than Tiger Woods, winning a World Golf Championship event should provide a moment of content career reflection. For Woods, it is simply quickly filed into the past, as we look ahead to next week's PGA Championship.
This all speaks to the greatness of Woods, and the pressure on him to end his five-year major drought. I'll get into his chances of doing just that, but first, we have to devote at least a little time to reflect on Woods' greatness:
As for his 18 WGC wins? No one else has more than three. To help fully absorb the absurdity of this, check out this:
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Still, while this was yet another year where Woods was able to put up a remarkable five victories, it will be hard not to view this season as anything but a lost year if Woods doesn't parlay this momentum into a win at the year's last major next week at Oak Hill.
Woods has won both the Bridgestone and the PGA Championship in the same year three times. However, this event wasn't always the week before the major. Twice, Woods has won the Bridgestone and played the PGA the following week. He finished first at Southern Hills in 2007 and then finished second in 2009, when Y.E. Yang chased him down in the final round.
PGA Championship Projections
"[Oak Hill is] the hardest, fairest golf course the players have ever played." That is how the Oak Hill website quotes Tiger Woods after he finished the 2003 PGA Championship at the venue at 12-over and 12 strokes behind the lead in 39th place.
Needless to say, Woods will have his work cut out for him.
Woods Will Find Trouble off the Tee
In the 2003 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, Woods hit just 46.43 percent of his fairways. That season, for the year, Woods hit 62.7 percent of his fairways.
This year, he is hitting 63.7 percent of his fairways. However, that number is a bit misleading. Woods has increasingly left his driver in the bag to stick it in the fairways more often. His driving distance is down almost 10 yards from where it was in 2003.
Woods hit 57.1 percent of his fairways while picking up the win at the Bridgestone, and that actually bodes well for him. Bridgestone has a similar layout off the tee as Oakhill, and Woods averaged 302 yards off the tee.
Still, there is no doubt that Woods will find trouble off the tee at times during this tournament. How he recovers from that will go a long way toward determining where he winds up.
The Flat Iron Will Let Him Down
Woods' putting has been a pivotal factor on his road to winning 14 majors. He is amazing under pressure, and he is at his best when the greens are blazing fast, which they almost always are for a major.
However, it seems unlikely the greens will have typical major speed this week.
Woods played Oak Hill last Tuesday, and, as Bob Harig of ESPN notes, he said the greens were "'spotty' and slow." Harig also passed along this quote from Woods:
"They don't have much thatch to them, so it'll be interesting to see what they do for the tournament and how much they're able to speed them up with kind of a lack of grass.
"
While Harig notes the course is working on improving the greens, it is difficult to believe they can have them up to major standards by this Thursday.
Woods can struggle putting when green speeds are inconsistent and slower, and he will struggle with the flat iron in this major.
Woods Will End the Season without a Major
While Woods rolls into this major in scintillating form, the Firestone Country Club (home of the Bridgestone) is a course that Woods is well-suited to dominate.
Oak Hill is a different story.
As I detailed, Woods will have his work cut out for him to keep himself safe off the tee, and he will then have a hard time picking up strokes with his putter.
I expect a solid outing from Woods, but not good enough to land him at the top.
Woods will finish in eighth.
All stats via PGATour.com.



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