How Adrian Peterson Can Realistically Break Emmitt Smith's Rushing Record

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson needs a rare combination of consistent availability and sustained production to accomplish his lofty goal of breaking Emmitt Smith's all-time career rushing record.

According to Dan Wiederer of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Peterson believes the record is "reachable," even if that means shattering his current per-game averages to break the record well before most believe it to be humanly possible. 

Any talk from Peterson about a 2017 completion date obviously lacks a basis in reality (he would need to average 1,900 yards over the next five years). But if there's any active running back who could eventually challenge Smith's vastly underrated mark, it's probably Peterson, who already possesses a case for being one of the best running backs ever to play the game.

But first, any discussion of breaking a record must start with necessary context of the mark in question. 

Smith has set the bar high for Peterson and all others; over 15 NFL seasons, the former Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals running back rushed for 18,355 yards, or roughly 1,223 yards a season for a decade and a half.  

Smith played in fewer than 14 games just once in his career (an injury-riddled 2003 season in Arizona), while averaging 81.2 yards per game. He also rattled off 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons from 1991-2001, and in only one of his 15 seasons did Smith rush for fewer than 900 yards.

A model of consistency and longevity, Smith comfortably passed Walter Payton (16,726) for the career record in 2002.

Peterson will likely have to fashion the rest of his career on what Smith accomplished much earlier in his NFL life span to break that mark. 

He appears well on his way.

Peterson currently has 8,849 yards in just 89 games over six NFL seasons. His per-game rushing average of 99.4 is tops among active running backs and third all time (behind only Jim Brown and Barry Sanders). Continuing his current weekly average would put him on pace to break Smith's career record very late in 2018.

However, Peterson is still behind Smith's volume numbers, at least in terms of age. 

Following his age-27 season, Smith had already rushed for 10,160 yards over 108 games (94.1 yards/game). Peterson, who finished his age-27 season in 2012, sits 1,311 yards behind, although the gap is mostly due to Smith entering the NFL at 21 years old. Peterson's first season came when he was 22. 

Smith would go on to play eight more seasons after his age-27 season. He averaged just 69.4 yards a game during that stretch, which helps put into context what kind of task lies ahead for Peterson. 

By late 2018, or about six full seasons away from today, Peterson will be 34 years old. He would need to play in all 16 games over those six-plus seasons and rush for his 99.4 yards-per-game average to break the mark in Week 17 of the 2018 season. 

History appears to be against Peterson maintaining such a pace. 

No running back in NFL history has ever rushed for 99.4 yards a game during or after his age-32 season, and only five times has a running back 33 or older rushed for more than a 1,000 yards in a single season. The position simply doesn't age well, and it's hard to envision a bruising running back like Peterson bucking that trend, especially six long years down the road. (Keep in mind, the rushing leader six years ago was LaDainian Tomlinson.) 

The current record holder struggled mightily to keep up the pace of his early seasons. 

From age 28 on, Smith rushed for more than 90 yards per game in just one of eight seasons (1999). And by the time he hit 33, Smith could barely produce 60 yards a contest or four yards a carry. His last 1,000-yard season came in 2001, his age-32 season. 

Despite being one of the sport's athletic marvels, most would be surprised if Peterson rushed for 1,590 yards (a 99.4-yard average over 16 games) as a 33- or 34-year-old running back. 

If we can consider these conclusions about his future production to be true, then Peterson will have to do the heavy lifting toward the record during his upcoming seasons. 

Ahead of the 2013 season, Peterson is 9,506 yards short of Smith's record. 

Here are some season-by-season yardage totals that allow him to break the mark by the end of the 2019 season: 

YEAR	AGE	1	2	3	4	5
2013	28	2,000	2,100	2,000	1,800	2,000
2014	29	1,800	1,900	1,800	1,900	2,000
2015	30	1,600	1,700	1,800	1,800	1,400
2016	31	1,400	1,200	1,400	1,100	1,200
2017	32	1,100	1,000	1,000	1,100	1,100
2018	33	900	850	900	1,000	1,000
2019	34	750	800	650	850	850
	TOTALS	9,550	9,550	9,550	9,550	9,550

Using this declining production model, it's rather obvious that Peterson needs to gain a substantial number of yards over his next three seasons to have a legitimate shot at catching Smith.

In all five scenarios, Peterson tallies at least 5,400 yards (or 1,800 a season) over the first three years. Those early yards are important, because he also fails to gain over 3,000 in any of the final three years of the five simulations. 

Notice that production past 35 years old isn't included, as only four different running backs in NFL history have rushed for more than 500 yards after that age. And in reality, eight more productive years for a player like Peterson doesn't seem feasible. 

The table also takes into account that Peterson will be healthy and active for all 16 games in each of the seven years, which can be a lot to ask out of a running back who has missed at least one game in half of his six NFL seasons. However, if you believe Peterson will play past his age-34 season, then the numbers with injuries included will, in most cases, balance out. 

Taken year by year, the above table would seem to provide five different yet realistic avenues for Peterson to comfortably break Smith's record. 

However, nothing about accomplishing any of the five season-by-season totals will be easy.

We assume Peterson will once again near or top 2,000 yards in 2013, which has only been done seven times in a single season. All but one of the simulations have him rushing for 1,600 or more yards during his age-30 season, a feat only four running backs have accomplished. 

Also, no running back has ever rushed for more than 9,000 yards after turning 28 years old. Smith leads the group with 8,195, and only Walter Payton is within 1,000 yards of his mark (7,118). 

Most will rightfully give Peterson the benefit of the doubt after what he accomplished in 2012, but these projections are expecting one rare season after another for the Vikings running back to break the mark. Keep in mind, if Peterson hits exactly his current average season (1,475 yards) over each of the next six years, he'll still come up short of the record.   

Yet if any running back has the athletic ability and mental drive to exceed his past performances and sustain unprecedented excellence at the position, it's Peterson. 

He'll need some luck in terms of avoiding injury over the long term, but Peterson can set himself on a fast track to Smith's record by biting off a big chunk of the remaining gap over the next three seasons. While certainly unlikely, Peterson does have a statistical blueprint for breaking one of the NFL's most underrated career records. 

All stats from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.