The Five Most Important Statistics in Men's Tennis
Question: What is the most important statistic in men's tennis?
Answer: There isn't one.
Contrary to David Robson's September, 2009 article for USA Today, arriving at the top of the game is not all about the return. In fact, it is more about being a model of consistency over five important statistics.
The vital statsย are:
- First-serve percentage
- Service games won
- Break points saved
- Second-serve return points won
- Break points converted
For comparison purposes, the top five players' 2013 recordsย on the ATP Tour as of July 29 will be analyzed, along with the No. 20 John Isner and No. 50 Michael Llodra.
What emerges is a virtual ticket booth of facts. To gain access to the top of the game, even the top 50, a player must possess consistency in these five statistics.
First-Serve Percentage
1 of 5Former Canadian Davis Cup player Peter Burwash once made an astute observationย about the importance of the first-serve percentage: "I don't have a third serve."
In other words, a higher percentage of first serves removes a great deal of stress regarding the second serve.
As will be obvious from these 2013 statistics, the only appreciative drop-off among the players is No. 50 Michael Llodra. He is only two percentย below Andy Murray, but he is the lowest. By contrast, No. 20 John Isner is right there with the others.
| ย Novak Djokovic | ย 66% |
| ย Andy Murray | ย 62% |
| ย David Ferrer | ย 63% |
| ย Rafael Nadal | ย 71% |
| ย Roger Federer | ย 63% |
ย 67% | |
ย 60% |
Service Games Won
2 of 5In the men's game, it is very difficult to lose a match when winning every service game. At the very least, the contest will go to a tiebreaker.
As John Isner showed in the 2013 Atlanta Open, even that comes down to service wins.
Therefore, winning a high percentage of service games is paramount. Offering up few chances to be broken, and holding one's own serve can be very intimidating. The top players all do it well.
| ย Novak Djokovic | ย 87% |
| ย Andy Murray | ย 84% |
| ย David Ferrer | ย 79% |
| ย Rafael Nadal | ย 87% |
| ย Roger Federer | ย 88% |
ย 89% | |
ย 85% |
Break Points Saved
3 of 5Given the importance of the first-serve percentage and service games wonย percentage, it is no wonder that this statistic is important.
Even the best players are going to face break points. The top ones just do not concede them as often.
A prime example is the difference between the two finalists at the 2013 Wimbledon championships. Runner-up Novak Djokovic only saved 58 percent, while champion Andy Murray saved 69 percent. The table below shows just how low that was for Djokovic.
| ย Novak Djokovic | ย 63% |
| ย Andy Murray | ย 66% |
| ย David Ferrer | ย 56% |
| ย Rafael Nadal | ย 68% |
| ย Roger Federer | ย 65% |
ย John Isner | ย 70% |
ย Michael Llodra | ย 60% |
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Second-Serve Return Points Won
4 of 5The pressure builds on a server when he knows he is facing one of the best returners in the game.
That was the story when David Ferrer made it to his first grand slam semifinal at the 2007 U.S. Open. As reported byย ESPN, Roger Federer called the Spaniard's return the best in the game.
When a player begins earning many of these points, they lead to service breaks. And service breaks, as pointed out a few slides ago, lead to winning matches.
Here's the breakdown among the best:
| Novak Djokovic | ย 55% |
| ย Andy Murray | ย 55% |
| ย David Ferrer | ย 57% |
| ย Rafael Nadal | ย 54% |
| ย Roger Federer | ย 50% |
ย John Isner | ย 44% |
ย Michael Llodra | ย 45% |
Break Points Converted
5 of 5Wouldn't it be nice to convert break point opportunities nearly half of the time?
The best players do.
This statistic shows the steepest drop-off.ย The top five players elevate their game when taking advantage of the big points in matches. More breaks equate to shorter sets. Shorter, more successful sets lead to victories.
Nowhere was this more evident during the first half of 2013 than at the French Open. David Ferrer faltered in his return game, while Rafael Nadal pressured him again and again. When it was all over, Nadal had won an astonishing 50 percentย of break points, and Ferrer only converted 25 percent.
The result?ย A straight-sets win for the Mallorcan.
Here's the 2013 breakdown:
| ย Novak Djokovic | ย 42% |
| ย Andy Murray | ย 43% |
| ย David Ferrer | ย 44% |
| ย Rafael Nadal | ย 46% |
| ย Roger Federer | ย 41% |
ย John Isner | ย 34% |
ย Michael Llodra | ย 37% |
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