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Signs Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey Can Be Future of MLB

Matt WardenJun 8, 2018

Everyday starting pitchers are a dime a dozen in today's MLB, but stars are something completely different.ย 

Every so often teams find that diamond in the rough, someone who carries a staff every time out.

That light never stays bright for too long. Injuries happen, inconsistency happens, and that diamond becomes just another dime.ย 

The New York Mets' Matt Harvey and the Los Angeles Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw are two pitchers that appear to be "the future" of baseball, at least at the moment.ย 

Both of these guys sit near the top in every major statistical category this season, and a deeper look into their numbers shows they have a solid chance to continue this success for years to come.ย 

Star pitchers need a little bit of everything to stay on top for more than a moment, and here are some signs that Harvey and Kershaw have what it takes to do just that.ย 

Inning Eaters

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Even if a player doesn't have a fastball that blows you away, or a breaking pitch that can buckle your knees, the ability to eat up innings is very valuable.

When a player can get deep into ballgames his ability to produce quality starts greatly increases.ย 

Clayton Kershaw has been perhaps the most consistent pitcher all season, and it starts with his ability to go deep into ballgames. He is No. 2 in the MLB with 160.1 innings pitched and has thrown three complete games.

Kershaw's success isn't a first for him, he has done it before. What makes Matt Harvey's season that much more impressive is its timely appearance. In his first full-season Harvey is No. 7 in innings pitched, even having no complete games yet.

Both guys can eat up innings and give themselves a chance to keep padding their stats, but the obvious should be noted: more innings means more stress on your arm.

Tim Lincecum for instance is a testament to big innings stressing an arm. In his best three years from 2008-2010 Lincecum averaged 221.4 innings per season, while winning two Cy Young Awards.ย 

His velocity has dropped from high-90s to barely low-90s at this point in his career, and his walk numbers have increased the last two seasons.ย 

Even with the risks, however, the ability of Kershaw and Harvey to pitch a lot of innings with consistency is a good sign of future success.ย 

Getting Strong Late in Ballgames

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Pitching late into ballgames is one thing, but being able to pitch better late in ballgames is an asset invaluable to pitchers.ย 

Kershaw is currently the MLB leader with a 1.97 ERA, and his strength in the later innings is the reason why.

This season hitters are batting .225 against him in the fist inning while only .184 the rest of the game, including .183 after the sixth. Opposing hitters also only reach base against Kershaw at a .236 average in innings 1-6.

Harvey, though just in his second season, is already rivaling Kershaw late in games.

While opponents are hitting .275 after the sixth inning against Harvey this season, their .177 average in innings 1-6 is simply ridiculous.

Harvey hasn't thrown any complete games this season, so the sample of statistics is low from the seventh inning on, but the numbers are still solid.

Opponents have a .223 on-base percentage in innings 1-6 against Harvey. In short, he starts strong and maintains for the entirety of most of his starts.

Great pitchers have the ability to pitch in the clutch, no matter how inconsistent they can become overall. Its something that doesn't go away.

Kershaw and Harvey seem to have the clutch genes to be stars.ย 

Ability to Throw Strikes

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While throwing strikes isn't always imperative, it can greatly increase a player's effectiveness when he can get ahead in the count. It can also help his confidence.

Neither Kershaw nor Harvey have earned the ground-ball pitcher or fly-ball pitcher labels. Both have revealed themselves to be balanced pitchers, and both of them can throw strikes.

According to teamrankings.com, both Kershaw and Harvey sit in the top-20 of strike percentage. Harvey throws 66.4 percent of his pitches for strikes while Kershaw throws 60 percent for strikes.

Getting ahead in the count usually leads to fewer walks, fewer hits, and more strikeouts. The strike percentages for both guys seems to translate into more dominance.

The ability to throw strikes is an unappreciated art in baseball, and it shows a pitcher has command to go along with plus-pitches.

Kershaw and Harvey fit the bill here.ย 

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Throwing More Pitches

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Being a workhorse doesn't mean just being able to throw a lot of innings, it also means throwing a lot of pitches.

While managers are more cautious about player's pitch counts in today's game, a player that can throw a lot of pitches is valuable.

It may not rank high on some people's lists, but the more pitches a guy can throw, the better chance he has at success. Practice makes perfect right?

This season, Kershaw ranks No. 3 in total pitches thrown, while Harvey sits at No. 17. They give themselves chances to work out of jams and pitch late into games because they have the arms to do so.

While both are still young, Kershaw at 25 and Harvey at 23, they haven't shown any signs of arm troubles which has to bode well for their ability to continue.

A guy who can throw a lot of pitches can make himself that much better with each one he throws. Kershaw and Harvey possess this ability thus far.

Three-Year Rule

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A statistic that doesn't show up in any career stat line is one that I'm calling the Three-Year Rule.

Many star pitchers in recent memory have had careers derailed by injuries and inconsistency, but most of those stars also saw production drop after three-year periods of dominance.

Tim Lincecum, as stated earlier in this slideshow, had three great seasons from 2008-10, in which he had an average ERA of 2.84 and about 16 wins per season. Since then he has posted an ERA of 5.18 for 2012 and is currently sitting at 4.73.ย 

Former Cubs great Kerry Wood is another player whose high volume innings caused arm troubles and eventual inconsistency. Wood had an average ERA of 3.41 and an average of 233 strikeouts from 2001-03.

Wood only threw two more seasons as a starter, with ERAs of 3.72 and 4.23.ย 

Kershaw is already beating the three-year stigma that has plagued many pitchers, compiling an average ERA of 2.64 from 2009-12 after a lackluster 4.26 ERA in his rookie season.

His 1.97 ERA in his sixth season this year is the best in the majors, which arguably makes Kershaw the best pitcher in baseball at the moment.

Harvey is only in his second season as a major league pitcher so he has yet to face the three-year rule, but if this season, in which he has gone 8-2 while his 2.11 ERA is No. 2 in baseball, is any indication, he has the stuff to make it.ย 

Conclusion

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Clayton Kershaw has remained one of the best pitchers in baseball for four season now, and ย Matt Harvey has dominated in what is only his second season as a professional, earning an All-Star game start for his troubles thus far.

While it is nearly impossible to find a formula to predict if any pitcher can be, and continue to be the future of baseball, Kershaw and Harvey seem to have what it takes.

With stable arms that allow them both to eat up innings and pitch well late in ball games, all signs point to continued success.ย 

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