2013 NBA Offseason Moves That Teams Are Guaranteed to Regret

The New York Knicks made a massive mistake when they traded for Andrea Bargnani, but at least they weren't alone in their misguided offseason decisions.

A handful of other NBA teams also pulled the trigger on deals they're almost certainly going to regret.

Summertime is supposed to be a period of league-wide renewal, rampant optimism and fresh starts. But all of that feel-good stuff goes right out the window when a team cuts loose a player it should have kept or agrees to overpay a marginal asset.

The 2013 offseason featured a ton of player movement, most of which is still too fresh to judge.

Some transactions, though, like the Dallas Mavericks' curious signings or the Denver Nuggets' indefensible trade of Kosta Koufos, deserve some immediate criticism.

So here it comes. 

The Italian Job: Decent Movie, Bad Trade

The Move

The New York Knicks traded Steve Novak, Marcus Camby, Quentin Richardson, a 2016 first-round pick and second-round picks in 2014 and 2017 to the Toronto Raptors for Andrea Bargnani.

The Fallout

The Knicks, hamstrung by the luxury tax, couldn't improve their roster by signing free agents to anything beyond the mid-level exception or the veteran minimum. So they went out and traded for a former No. 1 overall pick.

The problem with that decision is that the guy they grabbed, Bargnani, does virtually nothing to help the Knicks in their most glaring areas of need.

In fact, the 7-foot forward might actually make the Knicks appreciably worse simply by being on the floor.

That's because Bargnani is a poor defender, an awful rebounder and a low-percentage shooter. For a Knicks team that needed frontcourt stopping power and someone to help keep the ball moving on offense, Bargnani is not at all helpful.

Even worse, he'll probably cut into the minutes Carmelo Anthony was going to see at power forward. When 'Melo played the 4, New York was at its most dangerous. But Bargnani absolutely can't guard small forwards or centers, so his most likely lineup spot—power forward—will force Anthony out of a role that maximized his talents.

Financially, the trade is even less defensible. Bargs was on the verge of being amnestied by the Raptors because of the cap-crushing $23 million he's owed through 2014-15. By adding him to the payroll, the Knicks further limited their flexibility and pushed themselves deeper into the luxury tax.

Oh, and it probably wasn't a great idea to throw in a first-round pick, either. Those things are assets, and even if this particular selection doesn't result in a great pick for the Raptors, the fact remains that the Knicks could have used it in a trade for a player that will actually help them.

New York is going to regret this move.

Hit the Road, Mike Miller

The Move

The Miami Heat waived Mike Miller via the amnesty provision.

The Fallout

Miller isn't in the business of providing full seasons of high-value contributions. Instead, he helps teams win titles by coming out of nowhere to dominate entire quarters in NBA Finals games.

It's hard to put a price on that, but it seems like huge efforts in the most critical moments ought to be worth at least the $12.8 million the Heat saved over the next two seasons by amnestying Miller. Well, technically, Miami saved quite a bit more than that since the luxury tax would have doubled that number in penalties. But you get the idea.

The Heat are obviously concerned about preserving as much money as possible while still keeping a championship team on the court. Either that, or Chris Andersen filled their quotas for weird hair and paint-by-numbers tattoos.

Miller shot 61 percent from long range in the finals, making more total threes (11) against the San Antonio Spurs than he did in the previous three playoff rounds combined (5), per ESPN.

Granted, Miller's perpetual injury woes and inability to guard anybody made him useful only in ideal situations.

But if it so happens that those ideal situations come during the final stages of a championship chase, it might have been worth keeping him around.

Miami went against the age-old axiom of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" in order to save a few bucks. Hopefully the Heat won't need a dead-eye shooter in their next title run.

Questionable Mavericks Signing No. 1

The Move

The Dallas Mavericks signed Jose Calderon to a four-year, $29 million contract.

The Fallout

Apparently, the Mavericks aren't worried about keeping opposing point guards out of the paint. Calderon is a fantastic shooter who almost never turns the ball over on offense, which gives him real value to an NBA team.

But he offsets almost all of his positive contributions by being a major liability on the other end.

Last year, in a split season between the Toronto Raptors and the Detroit Pistons, Calderon posted a defensive rating of 107.3, per NBA.com. To be fair, Calderon was on a pair of awful teams last year, but both of them were markedly better on both ends when he was on the bench, according to 82games.com.

The Mavs didn't cripple themselves with this relatively modest deal, but they didn't get good value for their money and certainly made it harder to afford two max-salary players next summer.

Questionable Mavericks Signing No. 2

The Move

The Dallas Mavericks signed Monta Ellis to a three-year, $25 million contract.

The Fallout

If Ellis is a team's primary scoring option, any hope of an efficient offense pretty much goes out the window. Poor shot selection and an unwillingness to move the ball are both big problems for Ellis. Fortunately, as long as Dirk Nowitzki is still breathing, the Mavs won't turn over offensive alpha-dog status to their new acquisition.

That means it's possible Ellis could see a moderate uptick in most of his rate stats.

But the streaky combo guard has now played eight NBA seasons and showed real signs of decline last year. For a player whose game is based almost entirely on elite athleticism, even a slight drop-off in quickness could be catastrophic.

From a big-picture perspective, Ellis is a regrettable signing for the Mavs because he's exactly the kind of player they had patiently avoided over the past two summers. Dallas prizes flexibility more than anything, and all Mark Cuban has tried to do recently is avoid spending money on non-stars in an effort to maintain the dollars necessary to chase marquee free agents.

Dallas panicked after striking out for the second consecutive offseason, signed Ellis and basically abandoned its overall vision.

Denver's Frontcourt Swap

The Move

The Denver Nuggets traded Kosta Koufos to the Memphis Grizzlies for Darrell Arthur and the rights to No. 55 draft pick Joffrey Lauvergne.

The Fallout

The Nuggets didn't make a franchise-altering deal when they shipped out Koufos, but by giving up their only decent frontcourt defender, they probably took a significant step backwards.

There's a good argument to be made that Denver needed to free up minutes for JaVale McGee so the organization could find out whether or not the athletically gifted big man had the potential to develop into a starting-caliber center.

But Koufos is a year younger than McGee and badly outplayed his more expensive teammate last season.

Denver posted an offensive rating of 108.8 when Koufos was on the floor in 2012-13. That number dropped to 106 when McGee replaced him. And on the other end, Koufos' defensive rating of 100.8 was significantly stingier than McGee's 102.4, per NBA.com.

Koufos also rebounded at a higher rate, posted a higher effective field-goal percentage and turned the ball over less frequently than McGee.

If the Nuggets feel like they need to find out whether McGee has another stage of development left in him, maybe it's defensible that they got rid of Koufos. But based on all of the evidence they should have collected last year, Koufos is actually the better prospect.

McGee is still famously prone to spats of total inattention on defense, and his penchant for ending up on highlight shows for his frequent brain farts probably isn't a great sign. So while the Grizzlies spend just $6 million on Koufos over the next two years, the Nuggets will be stuck shelling out $34 million to McGee for inferior production.

Oops.

This Is Why the Suns Can't Have Nice Things

The Move

The Phoenix Suns drafted Alex Len with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft.

The Fallout

Hindsight usually takes longer than a few weeks to reach 20-20 status, but after Len underwent ankle surgery—his second such procedure since May—on July 12, it's already clear that the Suns made a mistake.

The 2013 draft was full of uncertainty, but one thing the Suns definitely knew was that Len had already had a stress fracture in his left ankle. So when signs of a similar condition showed up in his right ankle in July, they shouldn't have been stunned.

It's possible that Len will overcome his injuries and turn into a player worthy of a lottery pick. But the track record for big men with serial foot and ankle problems isn't good; just ask Bill Walton and Yao Ming.

So in that sense, Len's not off to a very promising start to his career.

If Phoenix had wanted to take on a bit of injury risk with its pick, it could have taken Nerlens Noel (who went sixth to the New Orleans Pelicans and was then traded to the Philadelphia 76ers). At least then the Suns would have some All-Star upside to their damaged goods.

Now, they're stuck with a potential stiff.