British Open 2013: Golfers Guaranteed to Cost You Money This Weekend

Betting on The Open Championship is one of the most dangerous wagers to make in golf. The combination of schizophrenic playing conditions within rounds and propensity for this tournament to frustrate even the world's greatest players has made it one of the world's hardest events to get a grasp on.

What we know is that consistency and accuracy win out. A player who opens with a 65 on Thursday might be putting himself in an amenable place through 18, but it does little good if he goes out and shoots 78 the next day.

That's true for all events, obviously. You're not going to be kissing any Claret Jugs or another tournament's equivalent when going that high up the leaderboard. But as players prepare for this week's event at Muirfield Golf Links, they'll find that they are always one or two bad strokes away from throwing up a number that takes them out of contention.

It's a fate that Tiger Woods saw the last time the season's third major came to Muirfield in 2002. Standing two strokes out of the lead heading into Saturday's third round, Woods hit the absolute worst of conditions, which saw howling winds and rain make the course nearly impossible to play. At the time going for his third straight major of the calendar year, Woods collapsed, shot an 81 and pushed himself out of contention.

A fourth-round 65 brought him back to even par for the tournament, but Woods' plight shows no one is immune to the wills of this course. Had he even managed to carve out a 75 on Saturday, Woods would have been in a three-man playoff. Instead, the course ate him alive because he was unable to battle through the conditions. 

Consistency. Accuracy. Luck. Those are the three things that oftentimes go chief among The Open champion's traits. That said, some favorites are guys who lend themselves to inconsistencies and thus are being overrated by the bookmakers.

Here's a look at a few of the most notable names you should avoid throwing money on this week. 

*Odds via Bovada. 

Phil Mickelson (16-1)

If Lefty's chosen profession was acting (and he was a woman), he would have been a perfect lead in Temptation. Or at least I think he would, based on the title. I don't watch Tyler Perry movies because, well, there you have it. 

I ascribe Mickelson the title of the Tempter(?) because that he seemingly never gets done doing just that. On the heels of Lefty coming up just short at the U.S. Open and drawing everyone back in again, it seemed safe to assume we'd at least be taking a break from the roller coaster until the PGA. Mickelson has finished inside the top 10 in Open Championships just twice in his entire career and inside the top five only once—a tie for second two years ago.

Other than that, Lefty has been a noted career-long hater of links courses. He's performed miserably overseas almost every time he's taken a plane ride over, having missed the cut double the amount of times he's placed in the top 10 at the Open Championship. Historically speaking, Mickelson is four times more likely to finish outside the top 50 than he is to be on the leaderboard after Sunday's final round.

Aaaand then he goes and pulls you back in. Mickelson, the human struggle zone on links courses, looked nothing short of brilliant last week, coming over to play the Scottish Open and playing some of the greatest links golf of his life. Lefty shot 17-under for the tournament, which played low throughout the week, winning the event in a thrilling playoff with Branden Grace. 

The win was Mickelson's first European triumph in two decades. It was also your typical Mickelsonian affair, ripe with starts and stops, heart-wrenching shots and jaw-dropping saves all the way through the final hole. In preparation for this week's Open Championship, Mickelson even indicated he's had a change of heart about links golf to ESPN's Ian O'Connor.

"I used to hate it," Mickelson said. "and now I love it."

All the lovey-dovey quotes aside, history points to Mickelson's win last week being more of an anomaly than sign of things to come. The Scottish Open course played incredibly easy, well beyond the reaches anyone could expect this week at Muirfield. It was far more forgiving of mistakes, ones that Mickelson tends to make on links courses—dooming mistakes.

With Lefty coming in at 16-1, behind only Tiger Woods and tied with Justin Rose as the second-favored golfer, thanks but no thanks on those odds.

Rory McIlroy (25-1)

It's still early, but methinks we jumped the gun a little bit crowning Rory McIlroy as the best player in the world last year. While it's true that the North Irishman has a potential for greatness higher than anyone—Tiger included—on tour, it's also fair to point out his massive inconsistencies. 

Since winning last year's PGA Championship in one of the more dominating non-Tiger performances in golf history and then following it up with two September triumphs, McIlroy has been on a constant decline. He is yet to win a tournament in 2013, has finished inside the top five just once and has played himself out of contention in both major tournaments with frustratingly inconsistent play.

There have been any number of reasons given for McIlroy's lack of triumph. The most notable of those, of course, being that he's somehow distracted by his relationship with tennis star Caroline Wozniacki. As if all other tour members are abstinent or have not engaged in any relations with the opposite gender during their playing prime.

Do we need to bring up the Tiger Woods situation? I sure as hell hope not. Being in a seemingly loving relationship with someone about your age should, in theory, be less distracting than going out clubbing every night and trying to pick up a bartender. 

Perhaps—and this is a crazy thought—McIlroy is just not mature enough as a golfer yet to be consistently dominant. There have been flashes of Tiger-like transcendence, but it's arguable the youngster seems more prone to Lefty-like flameouts.

And that's not slam on McIlroy. It's more of a criticism on the overwhelming spotlight the young man faces at age 24 in a sport where players are only starting to come into their peak at this point. If we're still seeing this nonsense two years down the line, then maybe it will be fair to wonder about squandered potential.

That said, McIlroy is too volatile a commodity to make him worth betting this week. Everyone remembers McIlroy going 63 three years ago at St. Andrews, just as they do the 80 the very next round. And considering that event, where he recovered to finish in third place, is the only top-20 Open Championship experience of his career, there are too many safer bets in this field. 

Dustin Johnson (33-1)

Unlike the two aforementioned major players, Johnson has quite a strong history in Open Championships. He hits the ball through wind well and has found comfort over the past three years playing the links courses.

After establishing his presence with a 14th-place finish in 2010, following it up with a narrow loss a year later and capturing a second straight top-10 outing last year, his status as a creeping underdog is warranted. The 28-year-old American will have many watching him over his first two rounds, with the rush to bet on an underdog always giving fans just enough temptation for some to pull the trigger.

And if Johnson were playing better, I might advise that same strategy. He's just been so completely unpredictable this year that his Muirfield outing just seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

If there is one rule—and there are many, many rules—about playing The Open Championship, it's that you cannot consistently find the rough. Muirfield and courses like it play to the strengths of the world's most accurate players, guys who can hit their shot through howling winds and actually know where their ball is going. It's a tenuous balance to strike, one that vexes some of the sport's best in history.

Johnson possesses the former trait in spades. His tee shots are driven with such force they often slice right through the wind with an impressive power and precision—hence the recent strong performances from Johnson at Open Championships.

The problem is Johnson has had absolutely no idea where his tee shots were going this year even when the conditions weren't harsh. Among qualifying golfers, Johnson is the third-worst driver on the entire PGA Tour. He's hit exactly one shot more in the fairway than on the long grass in 2013. Injuries or not, that rate will bury Johnson alive at Muirfield.

As noted in the intro, consistency and precision win out at Open Championships. Johnson has shown neither this year.

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