The Open Championship Predictions 2013: Projections for Odds-on Favorites
Rarely do all of the world's best golfers fare well in tandem in any single major tournament, but there is reason to believe the current odds-on favorites could all finish near the top at the 2013 Open Championship.
The latest projections from Bovada unsurprisingly have three-time claret jug winner Tiger Woods ahead of the field at 8-1, followed by reigning U.S. Open champion Justin Rose and recent Scottish Open winner Phil Mickelson at 16-1.
Not to be counted out is Graeme McDowell, who comes in fourth at 22-1 and is fresh off a victory two weeks ago at the Alstom Open de France.
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Muirfield Golf Links is sure to provide these players with a demanding test despite their exploits in the year to date, so below are some predictions of how they will fare in Gullane, Scotland beginning Thursday.
Note: Statistics are courtesy of PGATour.com, tournament history was obtained from the Official World Golf Ranking and past Open Championship information was gathered from TheOpen.com.
Tiger Woods (8-1)
Perception of Woods' chances may be skewed in light of the recent elbow strain that apparently sprung his tough stretch of play. Also not helping his cause is the 10-over 81 he posted in Round 3 at Muirfield in 2002.
Then again, there's a reason the 14-time major winner is still the top-ranked player in the world—and the prohibitive favorite in oddsmakers' eyes.
Woods contends that his elbow is ready for action, but he hasn't competed since the U.S. Open. It's not as if long layoffs have necessarily translated to underwhelming efforts in majors, but Woods isn't getting any younger at age 37.
The strategy Woods chooses to employ will be interesting to monitor. Nike Golf captured Woods practicing at Muirfield, noting golfers need every kind of shot to succeed at this particular venue:
The shot-making prowess of Woods when he's on is matched by no one on tour—and perhaps no one in the history of the game.
What has hurt Woods recently at majors is the putter. Although he's won four times this season and thrice in 2012, putting has been the aspect of his game noticeably absent on weekends at majors.
It wouldn't be surprising to see Woods jump out to a hot start if he is indeed back near 100 percent health-wise. However, his Round 3 scoring average ranks 82nd, and his final-round average is 124th this season. That's too much to overcome to find the winner's circle.
Prediction: top 10
Justin Rose (16-1)
Having just broken through for his first, long-overdue major, Rose has ascended to a career-best No. 3 in the world. It's a place he was always expected to be, and it's been neat to see him get there after various struggles—including missing his first 21 cuts after turning pro.
Rose was 17 when he tied for fourth at the Open Championship in 1998 at Royal Birkdale, and he arrives at this prestigious event 15 years later having fulfilled all that promise he flashed then.
The flatstick is typically Rose's nemesis, but every other part of his game is so solid that he figures to have a great chance at the Open as long as he's mostly on point.
Given the often crazy bounces Muirfield's hard ground fosters, it's easy to misjudge distance and miss a lot of greens. A veteran and a talent like Rose will be able to hold greens in regulation better than most, but his scrambling ability (12th on tour in 2013) is what really has made his season successful.
Attention is sure to be on Rose, who will have to bring it playing alongside defending champion Ernie Els—who won last time the Open was at Muirfield—and Brandt Snedeker, who is eager to notch his maiden major victory much like Rose has and as Adam Scott did at the Masters.
The only event Rose played after his triumph at Merion was the Travelers Championship, where he tied for 13th. That's solid considering the extenuating circumstances Rose had to deal with.
It's hard to argue against Rose as a legitimate contender, though winning back-to-back majors does seem a bit unfeasible. Rose will be close but not quite good enough to get major No. 2 in short order.
Prediction: top five
Phil Mickelson (16-1)
As well as Mickelson is clicking right now, it's clear he's put the disappointment of his unprecedented sixth runner-up finish at the U.S. Open behind him and is looking at what appears to be a bright future.
Mickelson beat out world-class youngster Branden Grace in a playoff at the Scottish Open and proved that he has indeed adjusted his game to links golf after years of struggles on the opposite side of the pond.
It wasn't all graceful for Mickelson, though, because he unfortunately dropped the trophy, as Bleacher Report documented (h/t The Daily Mail):
Even though he's 42, Lefty isn't short on distance or confidence that he can capture another major—or more. With such a fine-tuned short game and strong play with his irons, it seems nothing could stop Mickelson from contending at Muirfield.
If he doesn't take home the hardware and inch one (very elusive) U.S. Open win away from the career Grand Slam, he'll be awfully close.
Prediction: top three
Graeme McDowell (22-1)
The first two letters of G-Mac's last name have characterized much of his play in his past eight starts, as he's missed five cuts in that span.
Here's the good news: McDowell has won the other three times he's teed it up, and that includes his last result, where he ran away from the field by four shots in France.
This is the tournament European players dream about winning since childhood, and McDowell got his first true taste of contention playing alongside Adam Scott in the final group last year.
The Northern Irishman's piercing low ball flight, driving accuracy and clutch putting are prototypical skills to succeed in the Open Championship.
It would be shocking if McDowell missed his third consecutive major cut after tying for 12th, second, fifth and 11th in golf's four biggest events last season. When pars are premium, McDowell is typically at his best, and that should be the case in Gullane this week.
His consistency has been spotty, but I like McDowell to truly threaten for the claret jug—if not win it.
Prediction: top five






