MLB 1st Half Wrap-Up: Predictions and Award Winners

The nominal first half of the Major League Baseball season has come to a close, and what a year it has been so far. The Baltimore Orioles' Chris Davis is making a run at 60 homers, Yasiel Puig of the Los Angeles Dodgers took the National League by storm in his first month and new stars like the Oakland A's Josh Donaldson are hitting their way into fans' hearts.

We saw Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds throw his second career no-hitter against the San Francisco Giants, and then Tim Lincecum avenge his team by no-hitting the San Diego Padres a couple weeks later. We're also halfway through the final season of the legendary career of New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, complete with a Chipper Jones-esque farewell tour.

About 70 games remain in the 2013 season, and there is no doubt that the craziness will continue after the All-Star break. Back in March, I did a team-by-team evaluation and predicted the winners of every division, each playoff series and the main individual awards.

Some of those choices look ridiculous now, and some look absolutely brilliant. It's time to check in on those and amend the ones that went wrong. Here are the teams who will finish the season strong and crack the playoffs, as well as the first-half award winners.

Follow @jamblinman 

AL West

Well, the good news is that I nailed the fourth- and fifth-place teams in the AL West in my preseason predictions. Although I did expect the Mariners to be playing a bit better at this point. The A's continue to surprise and seem to be the midseason favorites, just ahead of Texas. And I have a tough time counting out the Angels with that offense, but they've yet to give me something to believe in. 

Here are my revised predictions for the final standings in the AL West:

1. Texas Rangers

2. Oakland Athletics*

3. Los Angeles Angels

4. Seattle Mariners

5. Houston Astros

*A's win first Wild Card

I have a feeling the Rangers will land Matt Garza right after the break, which will bolster a rotation that has gotten great work from Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. I love the A's, but I can't help thinking they are overachieving. If the young starting pitching can hold it together down the stretch (especially if ace Bartolo Colon gets suspended for his connection to the Biogenesis situation), a second straight division crown would not surprise me.

The Angels offense is going to fully click eventually and they will make a run. Remember, they almost came all the way back last year and ended up winning 89 games. Out of the three teams struggling in the West, they are really the only team that has a chance at making a move, but it's still quite a long shot.

I was very high on the Mariners coming into the season. I knew they wouldn't necessarily contend, but believed them at least hanging around was very much a possibility. Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero have helped ruin that illusion, but I'm enjoying the young crop of talent getting a shot in Seattle (including my preseason AL Rookie of the Year pick, Mike Zunino). Also, we can bash on the Astros all we want, but they've done a good job pointing their organization in the right direction. In a couple of years, they will be right back in it.

AL Central

I was close on this one. Granted, it was one of the easier divisions to predict. The Tigers should be running away with it already, but then again, that was the story in 2012 too. The Indians have been better than I expected, but I still think the Royals make a second-half run to snag second place from them. As for the White Sox and Twins? Well, Chicago is plummeting, and Minnesota at least has some young talent to show off.

Here are my revised predictions for the final standings in the AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers

2. Kansas City Royals

3. Cleveland Indians

4. Minnesota Twins

5. Chicago White Sox

In my preseason predictions, I had the Royals sneaking in to take the second wild-card spot in the AL That was before the A's repeated their success from last year and the Orioles proved they were no fluke. The pitching has been there for Kansas City, but their offense has mysteriously disappeared. But are they out of it? Not even close.

The Indians have put together a solid core in the middle of the order, and I'd love to see them move a bat like Asdrubal Cabrera for a good starting pitcher if they could. That would make them a division title contender for me. But, the Tigers are still tough. They may just have the best pitching staff and lineup in the entire league, and that's going to be very tough to beat.

Watching guys like Aaron Hicks in Minnesota has been a pleasure in 2013, but the Twins are still a long way away from returning to glory. If they can move Justin Morneau, they'd be better off for it. Their partners in basement-dwelling crime in Chicago will be selling too. They've already unloaded Matt Thornton to Boston, and by the end of July, Paul Konerko and Chris Sale might be the only recognizable White Sox left.

AL East

I fell for it. I believed the Blue Jays put together a good enough team to take over the best division in baseball. Unfortunately, my preseason standings are almost turned upside down. I'm still not sure how the Red Sox have been so successful, but they seem to be in it for the long run. The Orioles and Rays are contenders again, and it's hard for me to count out the Yankees, but injuries are really crippling them.

Here are my revised predictions for the final standings in the AL East:

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Boston Red Sox*

3. New York Yankees

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Toronto Blue Jays

 *Red Sox win 2nd AL Wild Card

I really didn't expect to pick Tampa Bay to win this division, but it hasn't exactly played out as I thought it would in March. They seem to be the most complete team, even after trading away James Shields. The Red Sox look like a playoff team, but I think they slow their pace a bit in the second half and end up with a wild-card spot.

The Yankees are going to make a bit of a comeback but will end up missing out on the playoffs for just the second time in Derek Jeter's career. It's just a shame that they won't make it in Mariano Rivera's final season. Also, keep in mind that fourth place in the AL East is like second in most divisions. So don't be too upset with the Orioles dropping a few spots. If they get another starter, my tune may change.

Toronto truly upsets me. They have a ton of offensive firepower, but I've been really disappointed in the R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle trio. If the veterans can return to form, this team may make a miracle run, but I believe the hole they've dug is just too deep at this point.

NL West

Call me biased if you want, but that accusation holds a lot less water after my Dodgers stormed back into contention over the last 22 days. They took advantage of the four other teams in baseball's weakest division faltering and climbed up the standings. The Diamondbacks still lead the way, and the defending champion Giants took a huge tumble, but all five teams still have a legit shot at the division title.

Here are my revised predictions for the final standings in the NL West:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

3. San Francisco Giants

4. Colorado Rockies

5. San Diego Padres

You can give a lot of credit for the Dodgers' comeback to rookie sensation Yasiel Puig, but the fact that the bullpen has been revamped and the lineup is finally fully healthy has been the biggest contributor to the resurgence. And they will ride all that talent to a division crown, just as they were expected to back in March.

The Diamondbacks have been just as good as I expected. While everyone paid attention to the Dodgers and Giants in the preseason, the D'Backs just waited there, lurking with a deep rotation and a well-balanced lineup. The proof is in the pudding so far, and they are still the team to beat with over 90 games in the book.

In Colorado and San Diego, we've seen flashes of talent and promise on both counts. If the Rockies can continue to build their pitching staff and the Padres play with some consistency, they will dark horses down the stretch. The Giants might have received a big spark with Tim Lincecum's no-hitter right before the break, and if it sparks the rest of the rotation, there's no way I can count them out.

NL Central

My predictions in the NL Central are a little bit wonky, in that the Cardinals and Reds are both sitting in good positions for a playoff run, but the Brewers are in dead last. I expected more out of Milwaukee, but they are staring up at the Cubs from the basement. And I did fully endorse the Pirates for an over-.500 season finally, but they are far exceeding my expectations.

Here are my revised predictions for the final standings in the NL Central:

1. Cincinnati Reds

2. St. Louis Cardinals*

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

4. Chicago Cubs

5. Milwaukee Brewers

*Cardinals win 1st Wild Card

Call me crazy, but I really do expect the Reds to take back what is rightfully theirs. They have a deep rotation, a dominant back end of the bullpen and quite possibly the most explosive lineup in the league. They stumbled a bit toward the break, and it might cost them, but I believe they will turn it around. 

Nothing against the Cardinals, who are one of the best teams in baseball every year, but I can't trust that the inexperience in the rotation won't come back to haunt them. They will bash their way into the playoffs as a wild-card team, though. Pittsburgh will definitely go over the 81-win mark, but I think they fall agonizingly short in the last few days of the season.

The Cubs are still making all sorts of mental errors, which is standard for a young team. They have a long road ahead of them, but Theo Epstein finally has them going in a positive direction. And between Ryan Braun's injury and impending suspension, as well as underachievement by certain members of the Brewers, that season is basically a lost cause at this point.

NL East

The Atlanta Braves have been as good as advertised, but they aren't exactly matched by the 2012 division champion Washington Nationals. I expected a nice back-and-forth between those two this season, but it's been mostly one-sided. The Phillies are still hanging around, but the Mets and Marlins are right where I expected them to be.

Here are my revised predictions for the final standings in the NL East:

1. Washington Nationals

2. Atlanta Braves*

3. Philadelphia Phillies

4. New York Mets

5. Miami Marlins

*Braves win 2nd Wild Card

 I know, I know. With both Upton brothers going down with injuries, Jason Heyward having trouble staying healthy and some general underachievement in the Braves lineup, a Nationals comeback is very possible. I think the top of the rotation in D.C. is going to help bring home another division title for the Nats, but it's going to be very close with the Braves.

The Phillies have hung around long enough that I expect them to hold on to trade chips like Jonathan Papelbon and Chase Utley. They may even become buyers to make a last-gasp run at a division title they likely can't win. Stranger things have happened, though.

Miami has been one of the more surprising teams in the league since June, but they are still miles away from contention. And the Mets have some pieces too (we'll never get tired of watching Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey pitch), but have some tough teams to deal with in Atlanta and Washington. The Nationals won't win 100 games like I initially predicted, but I think they will have one of the hottest second halves in baseball.

MVP Awards

American League

1. Miguel Cabrera, DET

2. Chris Davis, BAL

3. Mike Trout, LAA

Honorable Mentions: Josh Donaldson (OAK), Jason Kipnis (CLE), David Ortiz (BOS), Robinson Cano (NYY), Adrian Beltre (TEX)

It seems like Cabrera can't make a Triple Crown run without getting strong opposition from an upstart hitter in another division. Last year, it was Mike Trout. This year, Chris Davis is hanging around in batting average and RBI while holding a commanding lead in homers. Though I could make the argument that Trout is still the best all-around player in baseball, and Davis has been the single most valuable player, Cabrera does the most for his team on a daily basis.

A nod to the honorable mentions: Donaldson has been the best player on the incredible Oakland A's and has been one of the best clutch hitters in baseball. Kipnis got off to a slow start but has Cleveland right in the thick of it in the AL Central. Beltre has been extremely consistent in Texas and would likely be the key to their AL West run if they end up winning it. And in the tightly-contested AL East, Ortiz and Cano have been the two most feared hitters in their respective lineups, as per the usual.

National League

1. Yadier Molina, STL

2. Joey Votto, CIN

3. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI

Honorable Mentions: Buster Posey (SF), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Allen Craig (STL), Matt Carpenter (STL)

Yadier Molina has been the most valuable player in the league in 2013, and it's not even close. Not only has he kept a mostly-inexperienced pitching staff above water, but his offensive numbers have improved again. Votto and Goldschmidt have been their teams' best players so far and are really a coin-flip for those second and third spots behind Yadi. Heading into the second half, Molina should be the favorite for the award.

A nod to the honorable mentions: Posey is almost single-handedly keying the Giants offense, and that should be in consideration if the Giants make another run. Gonzalez, though playing on a team less likely to contend, has been impossible to overlook, despite his teammates Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki also putting up huge numbers. And Craig and Carpenter are just two more ridiculous bats in the league's strongest lineup who have come up absolutely huge—Craig leads the world in hitting with runners in scoring position.

Cy Young Awards

American League

1. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

2. Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

3. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

Honorable Mentions: Felix Hernandez (SEA), Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA), Hiroki Kuroda (NYY), Bartolo Colon (OAK), John Lackey (BOS)

If we're taking all the fancy sabermetrics into account and remembering that wins are largely a product of team play, Scherzer is probably a close second or third in this race. But I'm a sucker for his 13-win first half. Scherzer, Darvish and Sale lead the American League in opponents' batting average and are top-five in WHIP and strikeouts. Scherzer is a slight favorite for me right now, but any of the three could surpass the others down the stretch.

A nod to the honorable mentions: The AL is stacked with great Cy Young candidates. Hernandez and Iwakuma have been ridiculous (not surprisingly, and surprisingly, in that order) for the Mariners. Kuroda is one of the most egregious snubs of the All-Star Game, and 40-year-old Colon has been the ace of the upstart Oakland A's. Lackey's inclusion on this list baffles me, but I can't ignore the facts.

National League

1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

3. Matt Harvey, New York Mets

Honorable Mentions: Patrick Corbin (ARI), Jordan Zimmermann (WAS), Mike Minor (ATL), Cliff Lee (PHI), Madison Bumgarner (SF)

A few weeks ago, Harvey was the hands-on favorite for this award. A few mediocre starts later, and the veterans have emerged. Kershaw leads the National League in ERA by a large margin, trails only Harvey in strikeouts and holds the top spot in opponents' batting average and WHIP. Wainwright is still the master of precision, walking just 15 batters against 130 strikeouts. And Harvey is still a top-five pitcher in almost every important category.

A nod to the honorable mentions: I had to omit guys like Jose Fernandez and Stephen Strasburg, which breaks my heart. But Corbin, Zimmermann, Minor, Lee and Bumgarner have all been the best pitchers on their teams so far and deserve serious consideration for the top three. Though Kershaw remains the favorite, there are nearly 10 players who can contend for the award with a strong second half.

Rookie of the Year Awards

American League

1. Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays

2. Jose Iglesias, Boston Red Sox

3. Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners

Honorable Mentions: Dan Straily (OAK), David Lough (KC), Wil Myers (TB), Oswaldo Arcia (MIN), J.B. Shuck (LAA)

I was going back and forth on this one until Archer's start on Sunday before the All-Star Break. He spun a complete game shutout, lowering his season ERA to 2.96 in nine starts. The sample size is small, but with slim pickings in the AL, Archer is the strongest of the crew. Iglesias and his .367 batting average through 52 games is hard to ignore, and he could very well steal this award from Archer. Though I have faith in Franklin and teammate Mike Zunino, they are both long shots.

A nod to the honorable mentions: Straily has shown flashes of brilliance in spot starts for the A's but has also been roughed up a few times. Lough has played pretty consistent ball for the Royals this year, but joins Arcia and Shuck in a group that just doesn't come close to measuring up to the senior circuit's rookie class. The preseason favorite was Myers, and he still has a little time to strengthen his resume down the stretch. 

National League

1. Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins

3. Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals

Honorable Mentions: Matt Adams (STL), Evan Gattis (ATL), Anthony Rendon (WAS), Trevor Rosenthal (STL), Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD)

Enough of the "he's too new" nonsense. There has been no more impactful rookie in the NL than Puig this season. As of now, he's the favorite for the award, media coverage be damned. But Fernandez, Miller and a few others like Nolan Arenado in Colorado and Jedd Gyorko in San Diego will have something to say about that. The rookie class in this league is exceptionally talented, and the race should come down to the wire between a few of them.

A nod to the honorable mentions: Adams and Gattis have been absolute mashers for their teams, who just wish they could find a regular starting spot for them. Rendon has been flying under the radar but has been a nice spark for the Nationals. Rosenthal is the closer of the future in St. Louis and continues to dazzle with a triple-digit fastball. And Ryu, amid all the Puig hype, is the forgotten gem of the Dodgers' international scouting haul this winter.

Playoff Predictions

Before the season, I picked the Angels, Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays and Yankees to represent the American League in the playoffs. Needless to say, I've missed on most of those. Though I'm not fully counting those teams out, I've made a few amendments. As it stands now, this is how I see the American League playoffs panning out:

Oakland A's (Wild Card 1) defeat Boston Red Sox (Wild Card 2) in Wild Card play-in

Tampa Bay Rays def. Texas Rangers in ALDS

Detroit Tigers def. Oakland A's in ALDS

Detroit Tigers def. Tampa Bay Rays in ALCS

The five teams I picked in the National League are staying the same, including the order in which they finish. I still think the Dodgers win the NL West, and that one wild-card team will emerge from both the Central and East. Believe it or not, I'm taking the second-place Nationals and third-place Reds to win their respective divisions. Here is how the National League playoffs will unfold:

St. Louis Cardinals (Wild Card 1) def. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card 2) in Wild Card play-in

Los Angeles Dodgers def. Cincinnati Reds in NLDS

St. Louis Cardinals def. Washington Nationals in NLDS

St. Louis Cardinals def. Los Angeles Dodgers in NLCS

That was a painful thing to do, cutting my favorite team out before the World Series, but the Cardinals just find a way to get there in October. And with at least two games against Adam Wainwright, I don't think the Dodgers offense can hold up against the firepower that St. Louis offers. In the American League, it's the defending AL champs taking care of two "moneyball" teams in another late-season return to form. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer form an unfair 1-2 punch, and none of the other offenses can hang with Detroit's.

Before the season, I picked the Tigers to beat the Nationals in six games in the World Series. I've been less impressed than I expected with Washington's offense, while being pleasantly surprised by Detroit's pitching depth. When all is said and done, I think Los Angeles and St. Louis are the two most well-rounded teams in the NL, and will have the honor of battling it out to meet the Tigers in the World Series. In a rematch of 2006, will Miguel Cabrera help avenge that loss and bring a title to Detroit?

Detroit Tigers def. St. Louis Cardinals in six