British Open 2013: Latest Odds, Predictions and Picks

Ever wonder what a dream team of golfers would look like? Just take a look at the winners of the British Open at Muirfield Golf Club in Scotland over the last fifty years. Past champions include Harry Vardon, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Ernie Els.  

Don't expect some no-name, unproven pro to come out on top this week. The distinguished list of winners at Muirfield represents different eras and a variety of playing styles and strategies. They all share one quality, though: the ability to hit creative shots that fit a range of conditions—the winning piece to the puzzle at Muirfield.

Tom Morris' design of Muirfield set up the pair of nine-hole courses to form a loop: one travels clockwise; the other nine go in the opposite direction. Morris was ahead of his time, ingeniously designing Muirfield so golfers would constantly face a different wind direction. 

Make no mistake, the weather forecast is nowhere near the treacherous conditions emblazoned upon the memory of golf fans from 2002, when swirling 30-mph winds, sub-50-degree temperatures and torrential rain sent scores skyrocketing.

There's no doubt the wind will be gusting this week, though. Muirfield will identify the player who can best shape and control their shots, as well as determine when to play defense and when to play aggressively on this classic links course.

It's all a part of the distinct allure of the Open Championship.

Let's take a deeper dive into who's got the best shot at taking home the Claret Jug.

* All odds courtesy of Bovada.

Expect an Aussie to Be in Contention Sunday

• Adam Scott: 20-1
• Jason Day: 28-1

Between Adam Scott's breakthrough victory at the Masters this past April and Jason Day's torrid performances in the majors, you should have high expectations for the Australian pair at Muirfield.

You can really make a case for either player, as they've both played exceptional golf this season.

For Scott, he enters with the momentum of a major under his belt this year, but he will be playing with a tangible grit and fury after suffering a brutal loss at last year's Open, giving back a four-shot lead over his final four holes. The fact that he's an especially strong iron player, ranking 19th on Tour in Greens in Regulation, will be in his favor in the gusting winds at Muirfield.

Despite the fact that Day only has one PGA Tour victory to his name, he's earned five top-10 finishes in 11 career starts in majors. Coming off a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open, Day's a heavy contender at Muirfield, and rightfully so. He's a wizard on and around the greens, can shape the ball precisely with his irons and has an affinity for the spotlight.

Tiger Woods the Rightful Favorite at Muirfield

• Tiger Woods: 8-1

For any other player, a T65 and T32 in their two most recent tournaments would be a troublesome sign heading into the year's third major championship. But preceding that bad run for Tiger was a string of four victories in eight events.

Add to Woods' sensational 2013 campaign that he's a three-time Open champion, the world's No. 1-ranked golfer and a consistent contender in majors over the last few seasons and he's undeniably a favorite at Muirfield.

Statistically, Woods is trending in the right direction. He's been showing precision with his irons this season, currently ranking 44th in GIR, and his remarkable touch on the greens (fourth in Strokes Gained-Putting) has nearly returned as well. As mentioned in the first slide, Muirfield is a course defined by accomplished winners, and Woods would love nothing more than to capture his elusive 15th major at the historic venue.

According to Woods himself, his elbow injury has healed and he's ready to compete. For one of the hungriest competitors of all time, rust should not be an issue.  

Rory McIlroy a Wild Card, Not a Favorite

• Rory McIlroy: 25-1

Before the U.S. Open at Merion Golf Club, I vouched for Rory McIlroy as a favorite to win the championship and effectively reroute his season of inconsistency. McIlroy, however, disappointed, displaying the erratic play that's defined his 2013 season.

Over the last two months, he's missed the cut at BMW PGA Championship, tied for 57th at Memorial, tied for 41st at the U.S. Open and most recently missed the cut at the Irish Open. The Northern Irishman began 2012 with a similar ebb and flow (missed three cuts in four starts last May-June before winning three times in a month in the late summer), but there are no signs that McIlroy can and will rebound at Muirfield.

McIlroy is in the midst of a major transition with his club technology that has been anything but smooth. Stats indicate McIlroy has had enormous difficulty adapting to the Nike putter. According to Jeff Rude at Golfweek:

"

[W]hy the dropoff in results? The numbers say short game. McIlroy ranks 129th in putting (strokes gained) compared with 82nd last year. And he’s 165th in scrambling compared with 33rd a year ago. He has gotten the ball up and down only 53 percent of the time, a big drop from last year’s 60.2. For perspective, the Tour average is 57.2 and the leader, Chris Kirk, comes in at 66.3.

"

All hope is not lost for the 24-year-old McIlroy, who still holds the No. 2 world ranking. However, Muirfield will be a diabolical test of precision and creativity, especially around the greens where McIlroy has struggled. After his missed cut at the Irish Open, he said (via Rude):

"

At the moment, no aspects of my game are strong and I’m just feeling a bit lost at the moment. It feels good on the range and I can hit all the shots, but when I get out on the course it really does not seem to be there. ... I don’t know whether it’s a matter of trying to play my way out of it or just keep grinding away on the range or whatever.

"

Unfortunately, when a two-time major champion like McIlroy admits to feeling lost, there's presumably a long, arduous road ahead.

Phil Mickelson Is Primed for a Big Tournament

• Phil Mickelson: 16-1

Right now, Lefty has more momentum heading into Muirfield than any player in the world, hands down.

It's been a phenomenal year for Phil Mickelson. He captured his 41st career PGA Tour victory at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, earned a record sixth runner-up finish at the U.S. Open and won the Scottish Open this past weekend.

Don't read into the fact that nobody has ever won the Open Championship after winning the Scottish Open. Mickelson has never been one to follow the norm. 

Phil is playing with a fierce confidence that should rightfully cause panic among his competition. Mickelson has had his worst finishes at the British Open of all the majors, but his second-place finish at the Open two years ago paired with his recent surge should give him the upper hand at Muirfield.

Look for Mickelson to be a contender throughout the weekend.

Els a Constant Contender at the Open

• Ernie Els: 28-1

How much can you really read into the fact that Ernie Els won the Open Championship last season and won the last time it was played at Muirfield in 2002? Well, quite a lot, actually.

Els loves the Open Championship like Fred Couples loves the Masters. Something about the course, the history, the aura fits his game. In 22 starts at the Open, Els has a pair of victories and 13 top-10 finishes. "Impressive" is an understatement.

Now 43 years old, the Big Easy remains a formidable competitor on Tour. He's earned four top-20 finishes this season, most recently tying for fourth at the U.S. Open after a strong Sunday surge.

If you're entering a fantasy draft or happen to watch some golf this weekend, remember that Els is a force to be reckoned with at the British Open.

A Rosey Conclusion

• Justin Rose: 16-1

Not since Padraig Harrington won the Open Championship and then the PGA Championship in 2008 has a player won consecutive majors.

Looking at Rose's performance so far this year juxtaposed with his history at the Open makes for a precarious situation.

2013 has been a blueprint of consistency for the Englishman: He's made nine of 10 cuts and finished inside the top 25 in all nine of those events. That includes five top 10s and the impressive victory at the U.S. Open. Compare that with his mediocre play at the Open Championship, where he's competed 11 times, missed four cuts and placed in the top 10 just once back in 1998 (T4) as an amateur.

It's more than likely that Rose's 2013 momentum and newfound major championship confidence will help him defy his historically poor play at the Open.

The Donald-Westwood Conundrum

• Lee Westwood: 25-1
• Luke Donald: 28-1

These two Englishmen continue to duke it out for the dubious title of best player without a major championship.

For Donald, he's earned the prestigious No. 1 World Ranking during his career, and he also accomplished the rare feat of winning the Money Title on the European and PGA Tours in the same year (2011). Westwood on the other hand has had a great deal more success in major championships, coming excruciatingly close time and again, earning 10 top-10 finishes since 2008, two of which came at the Open Championship.

Yet despite their individual success, each player has a glaring void on their resume in the major column.

For Donald, 35, and Westwood, 40, there is still ample opportunity to win a major, but capturing the elusive major title seems more of a mental hurdle than anything else. Both players are proven, worldwide winners, and now it's time they show up in a major championship. 

Dark Horses: Nicolas Colsaerts and Dustin Johnson

• Nicolas Colsaerts: 50-1
• Dustin Johnson: 33-1

Nicolas Colsaerts, the notoriously long hitter from Belgium, came in seventh last year and since then has become a more consistent competitor in the world of golf. He leapt into the spotlight at the 2012 Ryder Cup at Medinah, where he posted a remarkable eight birdies and an eagle alongside Lee Westwood to beat the Steve Stricker-Tiger Woods tandem.

He's coming off a T10 at the U.S. Open and a T8 at this past week's Scottish Open. Considering he ranks first in Driving Distance and 24th in Greens in Regulation on the PGA Tour, Colsaerts will definitely put up a fight at Muirfield. 

Dustin Johnson's 2013 season has been plagued by injury and inconsistency, but Muirfield may be the perfect opportunity for him to turn his season around. D.J. has been one of the Tour's best young athletes over the last four seasons, notably winning at least once in each of those years. Like Colsaerts, Johnson is incredibly long off the tee, but he has gained vital experience as a proven winner in some of golf's most competitive fields.

He's yet to capture his first major championship, but over the last three years he's finished 14th, second and ninth at the Open Championship, which bodes well heading into Muirfield.