British Open Odds 2013: Handicapping the Field at Muirfield

With no clear front-runner in view, the word "open" could not be more aptly used than in this year’s Open Championship at Muirfield in Scotland.

With the No. 1 player in the world coming off an elbow injury, with No. 2 playing like he is a No. 10 or worse, and with a slew of rising stars and surging veterans, the end result is more unforeseeable than at any other time in recent history.

With that in mind, and for those who like to weigh the odds in these events, we have handicapped the top contenders with a few long shots thrown in for good luck.

Billy Horschel: 100-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Billy Horschel is having one of those years young pros, any pro, dream about. Currently ranked fifth in FedEx points, he seemingly is always in the hunt.

In 18 PGA tournaments, he has finished in the top 10 seven times, including a win at the Zurich Classic and a tie for fourth at the U.S. Open in which he actually led the field at one point.

Horschel has experience abroad, too. He was a member of the winning U.S. Walker Cup team that completed a narrow one-point victory over Great Britain and Ireland at Royal County Down in 2007. He won three out of four matches, including a first-day singles victory over Rory McIlroy.

Why He Won’t

We list him as a 100-1 long shot because he is going against the toughest field in the world on one of the toughest courses. He will need more than momentum to win it all, but don’t be surprised to see him finish high.

Best Bet

Not a great bet but a fun one, especially if he pulls off a miracle and wins.

Nicolas Colsaerts: 50-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Nicolas Colsaerts has game, and he has shown it in majors before, finishing 10th in this year’s U.S. Open and seventh in last year's Open Championship.

He drives the ball far (he’s No. 1 on the PGA in driving distance), and that affords him the opportunity to make birdies and eagles. His distance off the tee, an average of 307 yards, may allow him to miss some of the trouble lurking at Muirfield.

Why He Won’t

This Belgian waffles too much. His inconsistency has played havoc with his game as he has finished out of the money in six out of the 14 events in which he's played.

It probably has to do with his putting, which is pretty bad. He is ranked No. 181 in strokes gained via putting.

Best Bet

If you are into long shots, Colsaerts may be one of the best bets out there. But the smart money says he would be best to avoid.

Rickie Fowler: 40-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

At 24, Rickie Fowler may appear young, but he is already a seasoned vet on the international scene. He showed his toughness in the Ryder Cup in his match against Edoardo Molinari, posting birdies on the final four holes to come from four-down to halve the match.

He is sort of hot right now. He has finished in the money in 14 of 16 events, including his tie for 10th at the U.S. Open where he brandished a best-in-the-field 67 on the third day.

He is striking the ball well and putting better than he has in the past. Two years ago, he finished tied for fifth at the Open Championship, which shows he is ready to compete.

Why He Won’t

With only one win to his name, Fowler has not proved that he knows how to close on Sunday. With his natural talent and obvious creativity, he should play better than he has.

Best Bet

Fowler may once again score well during one or two rounds, but he will fade as the pressure mounts.

Matt Kuchar: 30-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Matt Kuchar has soared to second place in FedEx points this year with his stellar play. He’s won twice on the tour, placed second once and not missed a cut in 15 events he entered.

Kuchar possesses the assured and quiet demeanor of a winner. He has what it takes to win a major, but it just hasn’t happened for him yet. He is playing so well now that this may be his time.

Why He Won’t

That same calm demeanor may work against him when he has to be at his most aggressive. He has shown that he can score well on Sunday, ranking in the top 20 in that category.

The question remains, can he do it in a major?

Best Bet

Kuchar is one of America’s best bets to win the Open Championship. Take the odds here. 

Charl Schwartzel: 30-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

The 2011 Masters champion, Charl Schwartzel has proved his ability in majors. That same year, he finished in the top 20 in the U.S. Open, PGA Championship and Open Championship.

If not for a surprisingly poor 78 on Sunday, Schwartzel would have given Justin Rose a run for his money at the recent U.S. Open.

Schwartzel knows how to manage a course as he currently ranks third in scoring average, and isn’t scoring what it is all about?

Why He Won’t

While he is ranked 30th in driving distance, he has also shown a lack of consistent accuracy—which will be very important on the bunker-laden Muirfield course.

His ability to scramble and make the most of good shots will be tested fully. And should he actually be in contention on the last day, can he shut out his Sunday performance at the U.S. Open?

Best Bet

We should get used to seeing Schwartzel at the top of any field. He is a solid bet and should make a run at his second major win.

Brandt Snedeker: 30-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

For the past year, he has been one of the best golfers in the world. Why, just since last July, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 events, including two wins and a tie for third in the 2012 Open Championship and a tie for sixth in this year’s Masters.

Currently ranked third in FedEx points, Brandt Snedeker is considered one of the best putters on the circuit, which will come in handy at Muirfield. He is also ranked in the top 10 in final-round scoring.

Why He Won’t

Despite his excellent play of late, there is something about Snedeker that doesn’t engender confidence on the big stage. He’ll have to overcome any internal questions at Muirfield, which will undoubtedly prove whether he is the real deal.

Best Bet

He is playing so well of late that he would be tough to bet against. If he gets his putter going, he’ll be an excellent bet to take home the Claret Jug and his first major win.

Graeme McDowell: 25-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

No matter which course he is playing on, he is your classic majors player. Graeme McDowell is more of a steady force than a dominant one. He wears down the course—not the other way around—with his methodical play from tee to green.

He is also unfazed by the grandeur. Last year, he finished tied for 12th at the Masters then backed it up with a tie for second and fifth at the U.S. Open and Open Championship, respectively. 

Neither the weather, the bunkers nor the highly competitive field will sway the man from Northern Ireland in his quest for a second major.

Why He Won’t

Despite a win at last week’s French Open, he has missed more cuts (five of the past eight) this year than in the past. Still, he is one of those guys with his eye on the prize, so don’t bet against a stellar performance at Muirfield, especially with the momentum he has from last week. 

Best Bet

Go with a winner. He will defy the odds and be a serious contender. 

Jason Day: 20-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Jason Day should have won the U.S. Open, where he was just a missed putt away from the top of the leaderboard on the last day. He has the swagger and the driver to master Muirfield.

Even at the age of 25, Day has shown to be the heir apparent to Australia’s other big star, Adam Scott. He had four top-10 finishes last year and has five already this year, including a third-place finish at the Masters and a tie for second at the U.S. Open.

Why He Won’t

Like many long drivers, he tends to have trouble off the tee (ranked No. 140 in driving accuracy). He will have to rein himself in or at least manage the course correctly to score well at Muirfield.

Best Bet

Day will not shrink this time around, and he is a good bet, especially since he won't be favored. 

Phil Mickelson: 20-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Phil Mickelson will win because he still has what it takes to do so. 

He proved as much by winning the Scottish Open warmup to the Open Championship this week. He proved it by his three-plus days of great play at Merion.

At 43, Mickelson continues to defy his age as exhibited by his current position of 10th on the PGA Tour in scoring.

Why He Won’t

The win at the Scottish Open will surely embolden Mickelson, perhaps the last person who needs more confidence. But even as he is playing some of the best golf of his career, you never quite know what you will get from him.

If the wind is up at Muirfield, he will have to fight that inner voice to pound a driver down the course. But his go-for-it style may ultimately be his downfall.

Best Bet

Known as one of golf’s biggest gamblers, it would be interesting to know what Mickelson thinks of his odds. At 20-1, and with a ton of momentum going into the Open, he remains one of the best bets to win it all.

Ernie Els: 20-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Winning back-to-back Open Championships is actually not that unusual with Paddy Harrington, Tiger Woods, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino and Arnold Palmer having done so.

Ernie Els has the right stuff to accomplish the feat, and he seems to love playing in majors. This year alone, he has finished tied for 13th at the Masters and tied for fourth at the U.S. Open.

Why He Won’t

Yes, he won at Muirfield in 2002 for his first Open Championship, but couple that with the idea of winning consecutive Claret Jugs, and even the Big Easy may have a hard time keeping his emotions under wrap.

Best Bet

Even though he played great last year, Els won the Open by being in the right place at the right time as Adam Scott collapsed. You might be hard-pressed to bet that Els will win again, although he may again be in the top 10.

Lee Westwood: 20-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Because he has to. As he moves into his 40s, he knows better than anyone how important each major is.

A major win has long eluded one of golf’s purest players for way too long. He may be the emotional favorite in this wide-open field, which is why his odds are encouraging. 

Why He Won’t

Because he has to. The pressure of winning the big one may be getting to Westwood.

Couple that with his highly mediocre statistics of late (no top-20 rankings in driving, putting or greens in regulation), and he would be a big surprise to win it all this weekend.

Best Bet

Despite the emotional pull, avoid Westwood this time around.

Justin Rose: 15-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

The U.S. Open winner is on a roll that will continue into the Open Championship. Justin Rose has the statistics to back up his performance, ranked second in scoring average, 15th in greens in regulation and 13th in driving accuracy, all of which will play into his game at Muirfield.

Why He Won’t

There may be nothing more difficult than winning consecutive majors. So he has that going against him. Rose, 32, is also returning to Great Britain for the first time since his win at Merion and will be the focus of a lot of attention.

Best Bet

Of all the players in the field, Rose seemingly has the best shot at winning. His game is on track, he is young enough and experienced enough, and he has now won a major. He's a good bet to win.

Adam Scott: 15-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

This year’s Masters winner has something big to prove at Muirfield. His big collapse last year at Royal Lytham must have left a pretty sour taste that even a cold Foster's couldn’t wash away.

Scott’s game, hitting the long ball and excellent putting, works well at the Open venue.

Why He Won’t

Did Scott's Masters win take the desire out of him to keep things going at a high level? He seems to have petered out a bit since April, especially with his mediocre finish at the U.S. Open (tied for 45th).

Scott will be the focus of a lot of conversation going into Muirfield, which will not work in his favor.

Best Bet

He is a good bet to redeem himself at Muirfield. Even though Scott has not played well since his Masters win, he has shown that he has the fire to compete, which used to be a mark against him. Scott is definitely among the favorites to win.

Rory McIlroy: 15-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Rory McIlroy can bounce back from a difficult year of play by putting it all together at the Open Championship. And why shouldn’t he?

Amid all of the hubbub surrounding his game, he is still ranked second in the world. He still has four top-10 finishes. He still can hit the ball a mile and make eye-popping shots.

The two-time major winner can use Muirfield as a forum for success to prove that he is worthy of his ranking and his fame.

Why He Won’t

While everyone else will be playing out of deep bunkers, McIlroy will be playing uphill. He's fighting a year beset by club-throwing tantrums, inconsistent play, getting used to new clubs and a glaring spotlight. And that is just the start.

It is hard to pinpoint exactly why he hasn’t won this year or why he faded at the Masters and the U.S. Open, but he has yet to set the world on fire as he did last year when he won four times, including the PGA Championship.

Best Bet

The second-best player in the world should get more credit than this, but suffice to say he is still a work in progress. There is no getting around some of the issues he has had. Muirfield will not treat him well.

Tiger Woods: 5-1 Odds

Why He’ll Win

Tiger Woods says his elbow is fine, and that is good enough to put him at the top of the field once again. He has won four times this year, and before the elbow strain he was playing better than he has in recent years.

Woods has won three times at an Open Championship venue and is obviously comfortable across the pond. He remains first in scoring average, and when he is putting as well as he has (ranked fourth in total putting), he is very hard to beat.

And then there is the No. 15, the major win he has so desperately been fighting to conquer.

Why He Won’t

Just how good is the elbow? And can Tiger play at the top of his game after missing almost a month of competitive play? Those are unanswered questions as he goes into Muirfield.

He has had difficulty controlling his driver and is currently ranked No. 78 in driving accuracy. Tiger has avoided using a driver off the tee as he did in 2006 at Royal Liverpool, but it will be interesting to see if he goes that route at Muirfield.

Best Bet

While this may be the most open field in recent Open Championship history, it is very difficult to bet against Tiger, even with a sore wing.

In fact, he may be the odds-on favorite precisely because it is so open. If his elbow doesn’t bother him, look for Tiger to take No. 15 and edge that much closer to Jack.